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IMF July 2023 World Economic Outlook Update: Global Growth to Slow, Persistent Challenges
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that global growth will fall from 3.5% in 2022 to 3.0% in both 2023 and 2024. Despite a modestly higher forecast for 2023, global growth remains weak by historical standards. Central bank policy rates are expected to continue weighing on economic activity, leading to rising headline inflation, which is expected to fall from 8.7% in 2022 to 6.8% in 2023 and 5.2% in 2024. Core inflation is projected to decline more gradually, and forecasts for inflation in 2024 have been revised upward.
The recent resolution of the US debt ceiling standoff and strong action by authorities to contain turbulence in US and Swiss banking have reduced the immediate risks of financial sector turmoil. However, the balance of risks to global growth remains tilted to the downside. Inflation could remain high and even rise if further shocks occur, including those from an intensification of the war in Ukraine and extreme weather-related events, triggering more restrictive monetary policy. Financial sector turbulence could resume as markets adjust to further policy tightening by central banks. China's recovery could slow, in part as a result of unresolved real estate problems, with negative cross-border spillovers. Sovereign debt distress could spread to a wider group of economies.
On the upside, inflation could fall faster than expected, reducing the risk of a prolonged period of high inflation. The IMF also noted that the global economy is becoming more resilient, with improved fiscal and monetary policy frameworks, and that there is a growing recognition of the importance of sustainable development.
