华润行稳致远，金种子未来可期

华润行稳致远，金种子未来可期 —金种子酒(600199)公司深度报告 2023年08月18日 马铮食品饮料首席分析师S150052011000113392190215 mazheng@cindasc.com 满静雅食品饮料分析师S150052308000415026413613 manjingya@cindasc.com 相关研究 1.二季度明显改善，改革提速有望提振业绩 2.趋势向上，逐季改善 3.金种子2022Q3点评：内部理顺，赋能成长 华润行稳致远，金种子未来可期 2023年08月18日 证券研究报告公司研究 公司深度报告金种子酒(600199)投资评级买入上次评级买入 金种子酒沪深300 20%10% 0% -10%-20%-30% 22/0822/1223/0423/08 资料来源：wind，信达证券研发中心公司主要数据收盘价（元）25.2652周内股价波动区间30.34-19.95(元)最近一月涨跌幅(％)-0.04总股本(亿股)6.58流通A股比例(％)100.00总市值(亿元)166.16 资料来源：wind，信达证券研发中心 信达证券股份有限公司CINDASECURITIESCO.,LTD北京市西城区闹市口大街9号院1号楼邮编：100031 本期内容提要: ⯁盈利预测及投资建议:维持“买入”评级，维持预测公司2023-2025年EPS 为0.16/0.52/1.03元、增速155/233/99%。 ⯁华润具备资金/管理/产业优势，立足长远发力白酒业务。1）白酒行业技术变革及创新节奏较为缓慢，依赖品牌价值的提升逐步沉淀，因此稳健的组织架构尤为重要。华润/中粮/复星作为大资金的代表均布局白酒行业，对比过往改革，我们认为具备实力的资金主体能立足长远，不过度依赖于白酒从而实现稳健发展。2）华润85年的发展历程、啤酒行业从零到行业第一的经验证明其自我变革和突破的能力，力图“打造一个全国性高端品牌，做大一个全国高线光瓶酒品牌，做成N个高价值的区域品牌”，2025年目标过百亿。 ⯁公司具备地产名酒基因，受益徽酒次高端升级、高线光瓶酒错位竞争。1）金种子酒在三十余年发展过程中沉淀的优质禀赋（地产名酒基因、基酒资源充足、特殊香型）能够支撑其再度创造辉煌。2）安徽省经济发展速度高于全国平均水平，白酒市场规模约330亿位居全国前列。目前安徽主流价格带 约220-300元，我们认为随着经济发展和人口结构变化，次高端有望实现扩容。徽酒品牌力相对不强，更加依赖渠道，目前古井贡酒一马当先，与迎驾贡酒、口子窖拉开差距，金种子因历史问题贻误发展时机十多年，目前正呈现加速追赶态势。3）光瓶酒市场增速CAGR+14%高于行业，CR3约25%有提升空间。省内多为全国名酒和非上市地产酒，形成错位竞争。 ⯁“头号种子”具全国性大单品潜质，馥合香有望成为中长期利润重要来源。1）头号种子：目前60元以上光瓶酒暂无标杆性产品，与全国化名酒、徽酒均形成错位竞争；光瓶酒具快消品属性，其渠道与啤酒终端重合率约90%，华润全国1万多家经销商、200多万家餐饮终端助力；兼具品牌/渠道优势。2）馥合香系列发力中高端/次高端市场，竞争较为激烈，需依靠渠道深度分销激励团队形成推力，同时加大品牌投入提升溢价能力。仅阜阳/合肥占据安徽30%市场规模，阜阳基地市场具备市场资源/品牌优势，公司可以通过打造标杆市场快速复制，有望逐步扩展安徽省内，进而走向全国。 ⯁股价催化剂：内部改革加速、渠道推广提速 ⯁风险因素：产品培育缓慢、啤白融合不及预期、业绩恢复不及预期 重要财务指标营业总收入(百万元) 2021A1,211 2022A1,186 2023E1,928 2024E3,295 2025E4,813 增长率YoY% 16.7% -2.1% 62.6% 70.9% 46.1% 归属母公司净利润(百万元) -166 -187 103 342 678 增长率YoY% -339.8% -12.4% 154.8% 233.1% 98.5% 毛利率% 28.8% 26.4% 39.7% 46.8% 50.4% 净资产收益率ROE% -6.1% -7.4% 3.9% 11.7% 19.3% EPS(摊薄)(元) -0.25 -0.28 0.16 0.52 1.03 市盈率P/E(倍) — — 161.96 48.62 24.49 市净率P/B(倍) 4.07 6.91 6.28 5.68 4.74 资料来源：万得，信达证券研发中心预测;股价为2023年08月18日收盘价 目录 1.华润进军白酒是公司发展的需要6 1.1.白酒商业模式优于啤酒，具备更高的溢价能力6 1.1.1.稳健的组织架构是做好白酒的重要因素9 1.1.2.华润参股汾酒，进军白酒行业···············································································9 1.1.3.复星入主舍得，进行投资运营双轮动11 1.1.4.中粮入驻酒鬼酒，进行产业赋能···········································································14 2.华润具备跨行业发展的能力15 2.1.红色华润证明其自我革命与不断突破的能力15 2.2.华润啤酒成功经验或可应用于白酒················································································16 2.3.华润具备资金、管理、产业优势···················································································18 2.4.华润酒业“1+1+N”策略，2025年目标过百亿21 3.公司受益于徽酒次高端升级、光瓶酒提速22 3.1.金种子具备地产名酒基因，特殊香型形成错位竞争···························································22 3.2.徽酒次高端有望升级扩容，光瓶酒增速超越行业迎新机遇··················································24 3.2.1.安徽经济发展提速，白酒市场规模居全国前列·························································24 3.2.2.次高端有望升级扩容，“徽酒四杰”形成错位竞争·····················································26 3.2.3.光瓶酒增速超越行业，行业集中度仍有提升空间······················································27 4.公司改革提速，坚持“做强底盘、做大馥合香”29 4.1.推进组织/品牌/产品重塑，高管增持提振公司发展信心······················································29 4.2.底盘：“头号种子”具备成为全国性大单品的潜质····························································32 4.3.馥合香：发力阜阳/合肥，打造标杆市场35 5.盈利预测38 6.风险因素39 表目录 表1：山西汾酒员工持股覆盖面较广································································ ······················· 10 表2：复星在酒业2017年开始逐步进军啤酒和白酒行业································ ······························ 12 表3：华润集团旗下多个业务占据行业领先地位································ ································ ········ 19 表4：2018年起华润在白酒领域开启新一轮布局································ ································ ········ 21 表5：安徽省内强势品牌竞争主流为中高端价格带································ ································ ····· 25 表6：百元以下光瓶酒产品众多································································ ····························· 28 表7：华润系高管履历丰富································································ ································ 30 表8：公司高管拟增持320-420万元································ ································ ························ 30 表9：金种子产品品牌组合定位广泛································ ································ ······················· 32 表10：安徽光瓶酒产品梳理································ ································ ································ ··33 表11：2023-2025年营业收入预测································ ································ ·························· 39 ··· 图目录 图1我国白酒产量在2016年见顶································ ································ ···························· 6 图2我国啤酒产量在2013年见顶································ ································ ···························· 6 图3白酒企业固定资产占总资产比例较小··················································································7图4白酒企业固定资产周转率较高···························································································7 图5白酒CR5提升至2022年的43%（营收口径）7 图6啤酒CR5稳定在70%左右（销量口径）·············································································7 图7白酒Ⅱ(申万)销售毛、净利率显著上升·············································