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利用大型航运数据估算东欧和中亚的公路货运成本（英）

交通运输2023-07-01世界银行L***

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Freight costs are an important factor affecting the efficiency of transportation and logistics, especially in regions facing the COVID-19 crisis. This study, produced by the Policy Research Working Paper Series, aims to investigate the determination of road freight transport costs in Eastern Europe and Central Asia using large shipping data.

The study found that economies of scale are significant in both freight weight and load factor, with elasticity reaching up to 0.3 to 1.0 in absolute terms for the freight weight and 0.1 to 0.5 for the load factor. Additionally, the study discovered that the elasticity with respect to freight weight is particularly high, which emphasizes the significance of scale in determining freight costs.

The authors suggest that the current situation may represent a long-term trend, and further research should explore how these trends may affect the transportation and logistics industry in the region. They also emphasize the need for more efficient and cost-effective transportation systems to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

In conclusion, this study provides new insights into the determination of road freight transport costs in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, highlighting the importance of economies of scale in this context. The findings have important implications for the transportation and logistics industry, and further research is necessary to fully understand the trends and to develop efficient solutions to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10533 EstimatingRoadFreightTransportCostsinEasternEuropeandCentralAsiaUsingLargeShippingData AtsushiIimi TransportGlobalPracticeJuly2023 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10533 Abstract Therecentglobalcrises,suchastheCOVID-19crisis,remindusoftheimportanceofefficienttransportationandlogistics.Notably,however,evenbeforethecrises,someregionswerealreadyexperiencingagradualincreaseinfreightcosts,withmoreandmoreemptytrucksobserved.Thepaperrecastslightonthequestionofhowroadfreightcostsaredeterminedusinglarge,uniqueshippingdatafromEasternEuropeanandCentralAsiancountries.Itfindsthateconomiesofscalearesignificantinbothfreightweightorloadfactoranddistance.Theelasticitywithrespecttofreightweightisparticularlyhighatabout0.3to1.0inabsoluteterms.Thus,tocontaintruckingcosts,itis importanttomaximizetheloadfactorthroughfreightcon-solidationatoriginsanddestinations.Theelasticitywithrespecttodistanceisrelativelymodestat0.04to0.16inabsolutetermsbutstillstatisticallysignificant,indicatingthatdistancemaynotnecessarilybeaconstraintontradeandregionalintegration.Truckingcostsalsodecreasewithdrivingspeed,aproxyforefficiencyofmovementsorroadconditions.Theelasticityissignificantforfoodproducts(−0.03)andotherconsumergoods(−0.11).Finally,thepaperfindsthatbordercrossingadds3–4percenttofreightcosts. ThispaperisaproductoftheTransportGlobalPractice.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthormaybecontactedataiimi@worldbank.org. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam EstimatingRoadFreightTransportCostsinEasternEuropeandCentralAsiaUsingLargeShippingData AtsushiIimi¶† Eastern&SouthernAfrica,TransportTheWorldBank Keywords:Roadfreightrates,shippingcosts,regionalintegration.JELclassification:R41;C21;O52. ¶Correspondingauthor. †ThispaperisabackgroundpaperoftheShrinkingEconomicDistancestudy. I.Introduction 1.Inrecentyears,transportationcostshavebeenincreasingallovertheworldbecauseofvariousexternalshocks,suchastheCoronavirusDisease2019(COVID-19)crisis,remindingusoftheimportanceofefficienttransportandtrade.1Becauseofthestagnationandfaster-than-expectedrecoveryinglobaltradeandoutputs,internationalshippingremainsconstrained.Shortagescontinueinlogisticalequipment,containers,serviceoperators,suchastruckdriversandportoperators,andcargovessels(UNCTAD,2021).MaritimefreightratesreachedoverUS$10,000per40-footcontainerin2021,fivetimeshigherthanthelevelpriortotheCOVIDcrisis(Figure1).Roadtransportcostsarealsoincreasing.AccordingtoEurostat,theharmonizedconsumerpriceindexfortransportjumpedfrom106.7in2020to127.6in2022,a20-percentagepointincreaseforthelasttwoyears(Figure2). Figure1.GlobalMaritimeFreightRatesFigure2.TransportCPIinEU Source:Drewry.Source:Eurostat. 2.Notably,however,evenbeforetheCOVIDcrisis,someregions,suchasEurope,observedanincreasingtrendoffreightcosts.Variousreasonsexist.First,fuelpricesincreased.Particularly,dieselpriceswereonaverage0.99eurosin2016butincreasedto1.40eurosin2019andabout2eurosin2022(Figure3).Thishadasignificantimpactonfreightratesbecausedieselcostsaccountforone-thirdtoone-halfofthetotaltransportoperatingcosts.Second,truckdriversareinsufficient.Agingworkforceinthemarketisastructuralchallenge,puttingmorepressureto 1Thefollowinganalysisexaminestheperiodfrom2010to2020.TheimpactoftheCOVIDcrisismaynotbereflectedsufficientlyinourdataset. increasedrivers’wages.Whiledriversover55yearsoldaccountfor34percentofthetotallaborforceinthissectorinEurope,only7percentareunder25yearsold(Tietal.,2022). 3.Loadfactorisanimportantdeterminantoffreightrates.InEurope,theshareofroadfreightkilometerscarriedbyemptyvehicleshasbeenincreasingespeciallyforinternationalfreight(Figure4).Fromtheefficiencypointofview,holdingeverythingelseconstant,freightratesmaybehigherwhentherearemoreemptycontainers.Freightratesarealsodeterminedbytheroadcondition.Thehigherqualityofroadsgenerallyleadstolowerfreightrates.Intheory,roadusercosts,includingvehicleoperatingandmaintenancecostsanddrivers’timecosts,canbereducedifroadsarewellmaintained.Roadroughnessisnegativelyassociatedwithdrivingspeed(e.g.,Alessandronietal.,2017).However,therelationshipamongroadconditions,trafficspeedandfreightratesmaybecomplicatedbyotherfactorsinvolved,suchasthetruckingindustry’smarketstructure.Gi

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