人民币汇率周报：此轮人民币贬值行情是否已结束？

717 I2023 - 100 71416:30 7.1439 1.40% 7.15 7.1325 1.53% 6CPI2021 PPI 6 4 7 17 721 7.067.21 20111290 Z0017101 1.......................................................................................1 1.1..........................................................................................1 1.2......................................................................................2 1.2.1.................................................................................................2 1.2.2.................................................................................................3 1.3........................................................................................................3 2..............................................................................................4 2.1-..............................................................................4 2.2...................................................................................4 2.2.1..........................................................................................4 2.2.2..........................................................................................6 2.2.3......................................................................................7 2.2.4......................................................................................8 2.3.............................................................................................8 2.3.1........................................................................8 2.3.2....................................................................9 3.......................................................................................9 3.1...............................................................................9 3.2......................................................................14 .............................................................................................14 ...............................................................................................14 ......................................................................................................15 ................................................................................................................16 .............................................................................................................17 .........................................................................................................17 .............................................................................................................18 1. ( BIS 7.2054 7.1926 7.1318 7.1318 -1.021% USDCNY7.2336 7.2331 7.1325 7.1325 -1.398% USDCNH7.2552 7.2370 7.1439 7.1439 -1.534% 142.2463 141.5562 138.1674 138.7481 -2.459% 1.0962 1.1236 1.0992 1.1236 2.504% 1.2837 1.3111 1.2837 1.3111 2.141% 102.2750 101.9707 99.7617 99.9585 -2.265% CFETS96.84 —— —— 95.94 -0.929% 101.06 —— —— 100.23 -0.821% 92.16 —— —— 91.77 -0.423% 1.1 2023710-714 CFETSBIS SDR 71416:30 1.1.1 ) ( SDR iFinD ) 100 7.1571416:30 7.13257.14391.40%1.53% 6CPIPPI 620214 1.1.12023710-714 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.1.2 7.25 7.15 7.05 106.00 105.00 104.00 103.00 102.00 6.95 101.00 100.00 6.85 99.00 6.75 2023-03-172023-04-172023-05-172023-06-17 98.00 : iFinD 1.2 1.2.1 6 CPI CPI CPI CPIPPI 717—721 7.06—7.21 1.2.2 1.2.3 2. - 2.1 14 7 7.1318736 2.1.1 1 2 -7361040215-1991 -204 RefinitivBloomberg 1639 -96 -1747 2.2.1 2.2.2 0.150 0.100 0.050 0.000 (0.050) (0.100) 7.40 7.30 7.20 7.10 7.00 6.90 6.80 6.70 6.60 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 (0.02) (0.04) (0.06) (0.08) (0.10) (0.12) 2022/9/20 2022/10/20 2022/11/20 2022/12/20 2023/1/20 2023/2/20 2023/3/20 2023/4/20 2023/5/20 2023/6/20 (0.14) (0.150) 5 USDCNY16:30 RefinitivBloombergRefinitivBloomberg 2.2 2.2.1 1“一篮子货币汇率贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 2“逆周期因子贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 2.2.3 2021-10 iFinD 2.2.2 2.2.4 800.00 600.00 400.00 200.00 0.00 -200.00 -400.00 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 : 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 Delta 2023-01 I 2023 2023-02 2023-03 7 2023-04 17 6 2023-05 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 -400 7.40 7.20 7.00 6.80 6.60 6.40 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 2023-05 2023-06 6.20 iFinD 2.2.3 2.2.5 7.60 银行结售汇差额:当月值 银行代客远期净结汇:当月值 即期汇率:美元兑人民币:月（右轴） 0.08 7.40 0.06 7.20 7.00 6.80 6.60 6.40 0.04 0.02 0.00 (0.02) (0.04) (0.06) 6.20 2019/7/222020/7/222021/7/222022/7/22 CNH-CNYUSDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg (0.08) 2.2.4 751 USDCNY 25Delta 714NDF6.9411 2.2.6NDF 7.40 7.30 7.20 7.10 7.00 6.90 6.80 6.70 6.60 6.50 0.0000 (0.0500) (0.1000) (0.1500) (0.2000) (0.2500) (0.3000) 2.2.7USDCNY25Delta% 0.8600 0.7600 0.6600 0.5600 0.4600 0.3600 0.2600 0.1600 0.0600 1 0.6000 0.5000 0.4000 0.3000 0.2000 0.1000 0.0000 -0.1000 NDF(1Y)-USDCNH(USDCNH NDF(1Y