人民币汇率周报：人民币汇率是否存在持续贬值压力？

- 20111290 522-526 6.90- 7.09 Z0017101 I2023 522 1....................................................................................1 1.1......................................................................................1 1.2..................................................................................2 1.2.1..........................................................................................2 1.2.2..........................................................................................2 1.3.....................................................................................................3 2...........................................................................................4 2.1-..........................................................................4 2.2...............................................................................4 2.2.1...................................................................................4 2.2.2...................................................................................5 2.2.3...............................................................................6 2.2.4...............................................................................7 2.3..........................................................................................7 2.3.1.................................................................7 2.3.2.............................................................8 3....................................................................................9 3.1...........................................................................9 3.2..................................................................13 ................................................................................................15 ...........................................................................................15 ..................................................................................................16 .............................................................................................................17 ..........................................................................................................18 ......................................................................................................18 .................................................................................................................19 1 ( BIS 6.9481 7.0356 6.9506 7.0356 1.259% USDCNY 6.9506 7.0294 6.9525 7.0235 1.049% USDCNH 6.9545 7.0544 6.9659 7.0544 1.436% 135.6236 138.4926 136.0692 137.7102 1.538% 1.0856 1.0874 1.0775 1.0819 -0.342% 1.2463 1.2524 1.2422 1.2461 -0.013% 102.7041 103.5478 102.4340 103.2044 0.487% CFETS99.01 —— —— 103.55 —— —— 95.32 —— —— 1.1 2023515-519 CFETSBIS SDR 51916:30 1.1.1 ) ( SDR iFinD ) 7 516 7 1.1.12023515-519 USDCNHUSDCNY Bloomberg 1.1.2 Wind 1.2 1.2.1 522-526 6.90-7.09 1.3 7 1.4 2 - 2.1 519 7.0356875 2.1.1 1 2 875 587 304 -16 367 RefinitivBloomberg 250 121 -4 2.2.1 2.2.2 RefinitivBloombergRefinitivBloomberg 2.2 2.2.1 519 3 -36 1“一篮子货币汇率贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 2“逆周期因子贡献”根据Refinitiv调整后数据计算 = - 3 2.2.3 iFinD 2.2.2 2.2.4 4 71% 72% 3%4 55 8% 500.007.40 400.00 300.00 7.20 200.007.00 100.00 0.00 6.80 -100.006.60 -200.00 -300.00 6.40 2021-06 2021-07 2021-08 2021-09 2021-10 2021-11 2021-12 2022-01 2022-02 2022-03 2022-04 2022-05 2022-06 2022-07 2022-08 2022-09 2022-10 2022-11 2022-12 2023-01 2023-02 2023-03 2023-04 -400.006.20 银行结售汇差额:当月值银行代客远期净结汇:当月值即期汇率:美元兑人民币:月 iFinD 2.2.3 2.2.5 iFinD 2.2.4 5 19 NDF6.8421 346 USDCNY 25Delta 2.2.6NDF 2.2.7USDCNY25Delta% BloombergBloomberg 2.3 2.3.1 519 2306 7.0070 653 -482 228 2.3.2 2.3.1 7.10 7.00 6.90 6.80 6.70 6.60 6.50 0.20 0.15 0.10 0.05 0.00 (0.05) (0.10) 基差（右轴）成交价USDCNH BloombergBloomberg 2.3.2 5192306 7.0006556 -418 2.3.3 141 2.3.4 BloombergBloomberg 3 3.1 3.1.1 1.5-31.8 3-2.5 10.8 2.40.4% 0.8% 0.6%0.4% 0.4%0.8% 0.4% 3.5NAHB50 2022745 45 4.40.5% 1%0.1% 0.8%3 0.1%0.2% 5.2023FOMC 6 2% 6. 3.1.1 1. GDPGDP1.1% 1.6%5.8%2.8% 2.34.1% 20204 2.5%1.5%1.4% 0.9%2% 3.5ZEW-9.4 6.4-27.5- 30.2GDP 1.3%1.3% 1.3%0.1%0.1% 0.1% 4.5ZEW-10.7 -5.34.1- 34.8-37-32.5 5.4CPI7% 7%7%0.6% 0.7%0.7% 6.ILO7.1% 20207.1% 7.2%7.1% 7.4PPI4.1% 4%7.5%6.7% 0.3%0.5% 2.6%1.4% CPI CPI 1. 2.4 554 3.4 5.6%1.7 13.5% 4.3 18.4%7.8 1-4 4.7% 1-30.4 6.2% 8.8% 4.45.2% 0.1 16-24 20.4% 5.470 62 36221 2023 6. 3.1.1 7. 1. 3 3.8% ILO3.8% 4%3.9% 3.9% 4 3 1. 2.4PMI52.9 52.5PMI55.4 54.9 3.GDP 0.4%1.6%3 GDP1.7% 7.1%2020 4. 3.5% CPI 4CPI3.4%13 20 2% 1.60097% 4 109% 2.5 25 3. 11.25% Wind / 3.2 3.2.1 2023.05.22-05.28 / 16:45 - - 19:30 - - 20:30 - - 22 5 Markit PMI 45.848.0 22:15 - - - - 23:05 - - 15:15 - - 15:30 PMI (%) 44.545.7 Markit PMI 56.254.5 16:00 - - 5 Markit PMI 53.6 - 23 21:00 - - Markit PMI 50.249.0 21:45 CPI (%) 10.19.8 Mark