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气候变化下自然灾害抗灾投资的宏观经济回报：DSGE方法（英）

公用事业2023-06-01IMF笑***

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The paper "The Macroeconomic Returns of Investment in Resilience to Natural Disasters under Climate Change: A DSGE Approach" examines the economic benefits of investing in adaptation measures to natural disasters (NDs) in the context of climate change. The authors use a Markov switching dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to evaluate the impact of such investments on the economy. The model assumes that NDs lead to a reduction in the public and private capital stocks and that the government can invest in adaptation at an additional cost. The authors find that the macroeconomic returns to adaptation investment are positive and that the impact of climate change on these returns is significant. The paper concludes by highlighting the importance of investing in adaptation measures to reduce the economic costs of NDs and climate change.

TheMacroeconomicReturnsofInvestmentinResiliencetoNaturalDisastersunderClimateChange:ADSGEApproach EmilioFernandez-Corugedo,AndresGonzalez-Gomez,andAlejandroGuerson WP/23/138 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2023 JUN ©2023InternationalMonetaryFundWP/23/138 IMFWorkingPaper WesternHemisphereDepartment TheMacroeconomicReturnsofInvestmentinResiliencetoNaturalDisastersunderClimateChange:ADSGEApproach PreparedbyEmilioFernandez-Corugedo,AndresGonzalez-Gomez,andAlejandroGuerson* AuthorizedfordistributionbyChristophDuenwald,SòniaMuñoz,andAndrewBerg June2023 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:ThispaperpresentsaMarkovswitchingdynamicstochasticgeneralequilibriummodeldesignedtoevaluatethemacroeconomicreturnofadaptationinvestmenttonaturaldisasters(NDs)andtheimpactofclimatechange.WhilethemodelfollowstheexistingliteratureinassumingthatNDsdestroyashareofthepublicandprivatecapitalstocksandagovernmentthatcaninvestinadaptationatanadditionalcost,itaddsseveralfeaturesthatarekeytotheanalysis,bothinthenear(transition)andlong(steadystate)terms.Thoseincludeincompletemarkets,financialfrictionswithcollateralconstraints,foreignremittances,fullmenuoftaxandgovernmentspendinginstruments,andendogenousclimateriskpremium.ThemodeliscalibratedtothecaseofDominica.ItfindsthatNDshavelargeandpersistentnegativeeffectsonoutputandpublicfinances.Italsoshowsthatadaptationinvestmenthaslargereturnsintermsofprivateinvestment,employment,outputandtaxrevenueinthelongterm,especiallyunderclimatechange. JELClassificationNumbers: E44,E62,F35,H54,H63,O23,Q54 Keywords: naturaldisasters;climatechange;DSGE;resilientcapital;financialfrictions;Dominica;climateadaptationpolicies Author’sE-MailAddress: efernandezcorugedo@imf.org;agonzalezgomez@imf.org;aguerson@imf.org *TheauthorswouldliketothankSòniaMuñoz,AndrewBergandtheparticipantsinseminarsattheInternationalMonetaryFundandtheEasternCaribbeanCentralBankforinsightfulcommentsandsuggestions. WORKINGPAPERS TheMacroeconomicReturnsofInvestmentinResiliencetoNaturalDisastersunderClimateChange:ADSGEApproach PreparedbyEmilioFernandez-Corugedo,AndresGonzalez-Gomez,andAlejandroGuerson1 1TheauthorswouldliketothankSòniaMuñoz,AndrewBergandtheparticipantsinseminarsattheInternationalMonetaryFundandtheEasternCaribbeanCentralBankforinsightfulcommentsandsuggestions. Contents Introduction6 ModelDescription9 ModelCalibrationandSolution11 ImpactofClimateEvents16 ClimateAdaptation:ReturnofInvestinginInfrastructureResilienttoNaturalDisasters18 ReturnstoAdaptationInvestmentwithClimateChange20 SensitivityAnalysis:InspectingtheMechanism24 A.IncreasingPublicReconstruction24 B.AlternativeFiscalInstruments:ConsumptionandLaborIncomeTaxes25 C.AlternativeAdjustmentCostsofInvestment27 Conclusion28 References31 AnnexI.FullModelPresentation34 I.Households34 RicardianHouseholds34 WorkerHouseholds35 II.UnionProblem35 III.InvestmentProducers35 PrivateInvestmentProducers35 PublicInvestmentProducers36 IV.ConsumptionGoodProducers36 V.DomesticProducers37 FinalOutput37 VI.Government38 VII.BalanceofPaymentsandExternalSector39 VIII.SummaryoftheFirstOrderConditions39 IX.De-trendedFirstOrderConditions41 X.TheSteadyState44 AnnexII:TechnicalDescriptionoftheToolbox48 BOX 1.MacroCriticalclimaterelatednaturaldisasters:thecaseofDominic12 FIGURES 1.ModelStructure10 2.Short-runresponsetoNDevent17 3.Short-rungainstoresilientcapitalafterNDevent20 4.Short-runimpactofmoreintenseNDeventwithclimatechange21 5.Short-rungainsfrommoreresilientcapitalwithmoreintenseNDevents23 6.Short-runresponsetoNDeventwithpublicreconstruction25 7.Short-runresponsetoNDeventwithalternativefiscalrules26 8.Short-runresponsetoNDeventwithalternativecapitaladjustmentcosts27 TABLES 1.ModelsincorporatingNDsandAdaptationInvestment8 2.Model’sParameters14 3.MomentCalibrationSummary15 4.Long-runimpactofnonaturaldisasters18 5.Long-runestimatesofadaptation19 6.Long-runimpactofmoreintensenaturaldisastersvs.baseline22 7.Estimatedlong-runbenefitsofadaptation23 Introduction Climate-relatednaturaldisasters(NDs),whichareontrendtogrowwithincreaseintheirintensity andfrequencyunderglobalwarming,recurrentlycausehumanandeconomicloss.Thisimpacthasbeenparticularlycatastrophicinsmallstateslocatedinhighlyvulnerableareas,especiallyintheCaribbeanandinthePacificwhere,giventheirsmallsize,NDsaffecttheentireeconomy,leadingtolargelossesofmacroeconomicproportions(e.g.Raddatz,2009;Mendelsohnandothers,2011;Loayzaandothers,2012,Fombyandothers,2013;Acevedo,2014,Lianandothers,2021,Akyapiandothers,2022amongothers).2Giventhis,manyaffectedeconomiesareplanningextensiveadaptationinvestmenttoachievephysicalandfinancialr

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