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企业杠杆与繁荣萧条周期（英）

金融2023-06-01IMF.***

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The paper explores the relationship between firm debt and real outcomes in 24 European economies from 2000-2018. It finds that a rise in credit to firms is associated with short-term employment growth, but this growth declines in the medium-term. The study also shows that the relationship between debt and employment growth is more pronounced in countries with higher levels of financial development. The authors suggest that the decline in medium-term employment growth may be due to the accumulation of debt, which can lead to financial distress and ultimately, a decrease in investment and employment. Overall, the study highlights the importance of monitoring and managing debt levels to prevent potential economic downturns.

FirmLeverageandBoom-BustCycles CanSever WP/23/126 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2023 JUN ©2023InternationalMonetaryFundWP/23/126 IMFWorkingPaper AfricanDepartment FirmLeverageandBoom-BustCyclesPreparedbyCanSever* AuthorizedfordistributionbyEdwardGemayel June2023 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:Thispaperexploresthedynamicrelationshipbetweenfirmdebtandrealoutcomesusingdatafrom24Europeaneconomiesovertheperiodof2000-2018.Basedonmacrodata,itshowsthatariseincredittofirmsisassociatedwithanincreaseinemploymentgrowthintheshort-term,butemploymentgrowthdeclinesinthemedium-term.Thispatternremainssimilar,evenwhenthechangesincredittohouseholdsareaccountedfor.Next,usingdatafromalargesampleoffirms,itshowsthatfirmleveragebuildupspredictsimilarboom-bustgrowthcyclesinfirmemployment:Firmswithalargerincreaseinleverageexperienceaboostinemploymentgrowthintheshort-term,butemploymentgrowthdecreasesinthemedium-term.Relatedly,thevolatilityofemploymentgrowthincreasesintheaftermathoffirmleveragebuildups.Finally,thispaperprovidessuggestiveevidenceontheroleofafinancialchannelintherelationshipbetweenfirmleveragebuildupsandemploymentgrowth.Theresultsshowthatariseinfirmleverageisassociatedwithapersistentlyhigherdebtserviceratio,pointingthedragonfinances.Consistently,boom-bustgrowthcyclesintheaftermathoffirmleveragebuildupsarenotlimitedtoemploymentgrowth,butarealsopronouncedforinvestment.Moreover,themedium-termdeclineinfirmemploymentgrowthaspredictedbyleveragebuildupsbecomesevenlargerifaggregatefinancialconditionstighten.Thefindingsareinfavorof“leanagainstthewind”approachinpolicymaking. JELClassificationNumbers: E22,E24,E32,E44,G32 Keywords: Firmleverage;firmdebt;householddebt;leveragecycles;employment;investment;boom-bustcycles;ORBIS Author’sE-MailAddress: CanSever:csever@imf.org *TheauthorwouldliketothankHanyAbdel-Latif,AnilAri,BasBakker,AgneseCarella,CeciliaMeloFernandes,MelihFirat,CarloPizzinelli,YannickTimmer,JiaxiongYao,HaroldZavarceandRobertZymekforhelpfulcommentsanddiscussions.TheauthoralsowouldliketothanktheseminarparticipantsattheIMFAfricanDepartmentforusefulfeedback.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.Allerrorsbelongtotheauthor. WORKINGPAPERS FirmLeverageandBoom-BustCycles PreparedbyCanSever1 1TheauthorwouldliketothankHanyAbdel-Latif,AnilAri,BasBakker,AgneseCarella,CeciliaMeloFernandes,MelihFirat,CarloPizzinelli,YannickTimmer,JiaxiongYao,HaroldZavarceandRobertZymekforhelpfulcommentsanddiscussions.TheauthoralsowouldliketothanktheseminarparticipantsattheIMFAfricanDepartmentforusefulfeedback.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement.Allerrorsbelongtotheauthor. Contents 1.Introduction5 2.Data10 2.1.Country-levelData10 2.2.Firm-levelData11 3.Methodology12 3.1.AggregateCreditandEmploymentDynamics12 3.2.FirmLeverageBuildupsandEmploymentDynamics13 4.Results15 4.1.StylizedFacts15 4.2.AggregateCreditandEmploymentDynamics18 4.3.FirmLeverageBuildupsandEmploymentDynamics21 4.4.Robustness23 4.5.FirmLeverageBuildupsandtheVolatilityofEmploymentGrowth29 4.6.FirmLeverageBuildupsandFinancialDistress30 4.7.FirmLeverageBuildupsandInvestment31 4.8.TheRoleofAggregateFinancialConditions32 5.ConclusionsandImplications33 References35 Appendix38 1.Introduction Arapidlygrowingempiricalliteratureonleveragecyclesshowsthatexpansionsinaggregatecreditareassociatedwithboom-bustcyclesinmacroeconomicoutcomes.Thisliteraturedocumentsthatcreditbuildupsintheboomphaseareassociatedwithelevatedmacro-financialstabilityrisksandasubsequentdeclineineconomicactivity(e.g.,GourinchasandObstfeld2012,SchularickandTaylor2012,Jordaetal.2013).2Iexplorethedynamicnatureofthisrelationshipfocusingonfirmleverageandusingbothaggregateandfirm-leveldatafromEuropeoverthelasttwodecades.Ishowthatexpansionsinfirmleveragepredictboom-bustgrowthcyclesinrealoutcomes,andfinancialconstraintsseemtoplayaroleinthisrelationship. Thisstudycontributestotheunderstandingoftherelationshipbetweencreditdynamicsandrealoutcomes,particularlyfocusingonfirmindebtedness.Inthisregard,severalstudiesexamineboom-bustcyclesbydistinguishingbetweenhouseholdandfirmdebtdynamics,withmixedresults.Forinstance,basedonaggregatedatafrom30countriesovertheperiodof1960-2012,Mianetal.(2017)findsthattheroleofcreditinboom-bustcyclesinmacroeconomicoutcomesisprimarilydrivenbyaccumulationofhouseholddebt,ratherthanexpansionsinfirmdebt.Theyshowthatintheaftermathofariseinhouseholddebt,GDPgrowthincreasesintheshort-term,but

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