碳税对南亚有利吗？（英）

PublicDisclosureAuthorized PublicDisclosureAuthorized PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10462 AreCarbonTaxesGoodforSouthAsia? ValerieMercer-BlackmanLazarMilivojevicVictorMylonas SouthAsiaRegion OfficeoftheChiefEconomistMay2023 PolicyResearchWorkingPaper10462 Abstract ThispaperestimatestheeffectsofgraduallyintroducingaUS$25/tonCO2-equivalentcarbontaxinSouthAsianeconomiesusingtheClimatePolicyAssessmentTool(CPAT).TheresultsforSouthAsiasuggestthatmone-tizedwelfareco-benefitsnetofefficiencycostsfromsuchatax—regardlessofwhatothereconomiesorregionsdo—areresoundinglypositive,at1.4percentofGDPin2030.Revenuesfromthecarbontaxareestimatedat1.3percentofGDPin2030,whichissubstantialforaregionwithalowtax-to-GDPratio.Oncetheserevenuesarerecy-cled,theKeynesianmultipliereffectthroughincreasedpublicinvestmentandtransferstohouseholdsisassoci-atedwithslightlypositiveneteconomicgrowthrateeffects. Householdincidenceanalysisshowsthatthecarbontaxcanbedesignedasanequity-enhancingpolicy,givennetreductionsintheGinicoefficientforconsumptionfromrevenuerecycling.Thecarbontaxisalsoassociatedwitha2percentweightedaverageinputcostincreaseacrosseco-nomicsectorsin2030.Finally,thepaperdiscussesselectedresultsonandthepoliticaleconomyofacomprehensiveenergypricereformpackage(fossilfuelsubsidyphaseoutandcarbontax),withbroadguidanceonitsimplementa-tion.Overall,thepaperprovidessupportiveevidenceforthegreentransition,showingthatthereneednotbeatrade-offbetweeninclusivegrowthandgoinggreeninSouthAsia.. ThispaperisaproductoftheOfficeoftheChiefEconomist,SouthAsiaRegion.ItispartofalargereffortbytheWorldBanktoprovideopenaccesstoitsresearchandmakeacontributiontodevelopmentpolicydiscussionsaroundtheworld.PolicyResearchWorkingPapersarealsopostedontheWebathttp://www.worldbank.org/prwp.Theauthorsmaybecontactedatvmercerblackman@worldbank.org. ThePolicyResearchWorkingPaperSeriesdisseminatesthefindingsofworkinprogresstoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutdevelopmentissues.Anobjectiveoftheseriesistogetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheInternationalBankforReconstructionandDevelopment/WorldBankanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsoftheWorldBankorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ProducedbytheResearchSupportTeam AreCarbonTaxesGoodforSouthAsia? ValerieMercer-Blackman1LazarMilivojevic2VictorMylonas3 Keywords:carbontax,climatechange,decarbonization,energytransition,SouthAsia,fiscalincidence,revenuerecycling,fossilfuelsubsidyreform JELClassification:E62,H22,H23,Q43,Q54 1/TheWorldBank,email:vmercerblackman@worldbank.org;2/TheWorldBank,email:lmilivojevic@worldbank.org;3/InternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)andTheWorldBank,email:vmylonas@worldbank.org.TheauthorsthankYi(Claire)Liforexcellentresearchassistance,andPaoloAgnolucci(TheWorldBank),DefneGencer(TheWorldBank),DirkHeine(TheWorldBank),JulesHugot(AsianDevelopmentBank),TomMoerenhout(TheWorldBank),IanParry(InternationalMonetaryFund),MargaretTriyana(TheWorldBank),andHansTimmer(TheWorldBank)forhelpfulcomments.Theauthorsalsothankparticipantsat:i)theADBIConferenceontheEnergyMarket,EnergyPricing,andLow-CarbonTransition;ii)theDevelopmentEconomicsProspectsGroup(TheWorldBank)internalseminar;and iii)theSouthAsiaChiefEconomistOfficeinternalseminar(TheWorldBank)forhelpfuldiscussions.ThispaperbuildsonworkinitiatedinthecontextoftheSpring2022SouthAsiaEconomicFocus(WorldBank,2022a).Allremainingerrorsareourown. TableofContents 1.Introduction2 2.ClimatechangemitigationpoliciesinSouthAsia4 2.1HowmuchenergydoesSouthAsiaconsume?4 2.2SouthAsia’sclimatemitigationcommitments7 3.Dataandmethods8 3.1.Simulatingcarbontaximplementation8 3.2Modelingframework9 3.3Simulatedscenarios12 4.Results13 4.1Welfareco-benefitsfromaverteddamages13 4.2Fiscalrevenues15 4.3Economicgrowth16 4.4Distributionalimpacts17 4.5Comprehensiveenergypricereform22 4.6Sensitivityanalysis24 5.Politicaleconomyandimplementationconsiderations27 6.Conclusion31 References33 Appendix1.ClimatemitigationpoliciesandNDCsinSouthAsia38 Appendix2.Primaryenergyuse,energypricesandemissions40 Appendix3.Roadmapforenergypricereform42 1.Introduction ClimatechangeposesasignificantthreattodevelopmentacrossSouthAsia.Appropriateadaptationandmitigationpolicieswillbeessentialtoembracingmoregreenandinclusivegrowthinthefuture.However,investinginresilientinfrastructure,whichiskeytoclimatechangeadaptation,aswellasshiftingtoalow-carbongrowthtrajectory,willrequireconsiderablefinancing.Policymakers,thus,facedifficulttrade-offsamidlimitedresources:raisingfiscalrevenuesisalreadyaperennialchallengeinSouthAsiaasevidencedbyitslowaverageshareoftaxrevenueinGDP(around13percentpre-COVID-19).Moreover,theregion’spercapitacontributiontoglobalgreenhousegas(GHG)emissionsisverylow:in2021,aSouthAsianindividualemitted27percenttheamountofGHGsemittedbyanon-SouthAsian,onaverage.ThismayexplainwhyParisAgreem