南华甲醇产业链数据周报：矛盾逐步平淡，减仓观望为主

20230625 F3046357Z0015428F03100606 1 200 150 100 50 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2021 2022 2023 2 2900 2700 2500 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 2023-02-07 2023-03-07 2023-04-07 2023-05-07 2023-06-07 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2020 2021 2022 2023 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2020 2021 2022 2023 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 2020 2021 2022 2023 3 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 -507/1 -150 -250 -350 7/31 8/30 9/2910/2911/2812/28 01 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 -509/1 -150 10/1 10/31 11/30 12/30 1-5 1000 800 600 400 200 0 11/1 12/1 12/31 1/30 2/29 3/30 4/29 -200 05 400 300 200 100 0 1/1 1/31 3/1 3/31 4/30 -100 -200 5-9 09 550350 150 -503/1 3/31 4/30 5/30 6/29 7/29 8/28 -250 9-1 0 5/1 5/31 6/30 7/30 8/29 -40 -80 -120 -160 -200 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 -800 -1000 2023-03-03 2023-03-13 2023-03-23 2023-04-02 2023-04-12 2023-04-22 2023-05-02 2023-05-12 2023-05-22 2023-06-01 2023-06-11 2023-06-21 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 2020 2021 2022 2023 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 CFR FOB / 380 360 340 320 300 280 260 240 220 600 550 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 2020 2021 2022 2023 CFR 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 51 46 41 36 31 26 21 16 11 6 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 41 36 31 26 21 16 11 6 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MTO MTO MTO 95% 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2020 2021 2022 2023 2023MTO 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2023/1/1 2023/2/1 2023/3/1 2023/4/1 2023/5/1 2023/6/1 沿海MTO日耗加总内地MTO日耗加总 • 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MTBE 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 • 105% 95% 85% 75% 65% 55% 45% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 2020 2021 2022 2023 DMF 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 9 20192020202120222023 3400 3200 3000 2800 2600 2400 2200 2000 1800 1600 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 25 20 15 10 5 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 80% 75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 25 20 15 10 5 0 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月 201820192020202120222023 10 2021-07-31 2021-08-31 2021-09-30 2021-10-31 2021-11-30 2021-12-31 2022-01-31 2022-02-28 2022-03-31 2022-04-30 2022-05-31 2022-06-30 2022-07-31 2022-08-31 2022-09-30 2022-10-31 2022-11-30 2022-12-31 2023-01-31 2023-02-28 2023-03-31 2023-04-30 2023-05-31 2100 1900 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 700 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 11 450 350 250 150 50 -50 -150 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 LPG/DMEDME 1.7 24% 1.6 22% 1.5 1.4 20% 1.3 18% 1.2 16% 1.1 14% 1.0 12% 0.9 10% LPG/DME DME开工率 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 12 MTBE MTBE 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 8500 7500 6500 5500 4500 3500 2500 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 MTBE 120,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 2020 2021 2022 2023 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 13 MTBE ARA- MTBE 900 700 500 300 100 -100 -300 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 350,000 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 1月2月3月4月5月6月7月8月9月10月11月12月 20192020202120222023 MTBE 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 PP-3MA MA/ZC PE/MA 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500 -2000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 PP/MAMA/UR 4.5 4.3 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 1300 1100 900 700 500 300 100 -100 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q4800 1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Q5500 Q5500 55 8000 7500 7000 6500 6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2300 2100 1900 1700 1500 1300 1100 900 700 500 136 310008 4008888910