工作非常规化的全球分歧（英）

GLOBALDIVERGENCEINTHEDE-ROUTINIZATIONOFJOBS PiotrLewandowski,AlbertPark,andSimoneSchotte NO.683 May2023 ADBECONOMICSWORKINGPAPERSERIES ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK ADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeries GlobalDivergenceintheDe-routinizationofJobs PiotrLewandowski,AlbertPark,andSimoneSchotte TheADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriespresentsresearchinprogresstoelicitcommentsandencouragedebateondevelopmentissuesinAsiaandthePacific.TheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesofADBoritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. No.683|May2023 PiotrLewandowski(piotr.lewandowski@ibs.org.pl)isPresidentoftheBoardInstituteforStructural Research.AlbertPark(afpark@adb.org)istheChiefEconomistandDirectorGeneraloftheEconomicResearchandRegionalCooperationDepartment,AsianDevelopmentBank.SimoneSchotte(schotte@wider.unu.edu)isresearchfellowattheUnitedNations–UniversityWorldInstituteforDevelopmentEconomicsResearch. ASIANDEVELOPMENTBANK CreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO) ©2023AsianDevelopmentBank 6ADBAvenue,MandaluyongCity,1550MetroManila,PhilippinesTel+63286324444;Fax+63286362444 www.adb.org Somerightsreserved.Publishedin2023. ISSN2313-6537(print),2313-6545(electronic)PublicationStockNo.WPS230160-2 DOI:http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/WPS230160-2 TheviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsandpoliciesoftheAsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)oritsBoardofGovernorsorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. ADBdoesnotguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedinthispublicationandacceptsnoresponsibilityforanyconsequenceoftheiruse.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorproductsofmanufacturersdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyADBinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned. Bymakinganydesignationoforreferencetoaparticularterritoryorgeographicarea,orbyusingtheterm“country”inthisdocument,ADBdoesnotintendtomakeanyjudgmentsastothelegalorotherstatusofanyterritoryorarea. ThisworkisavailableundertheCreativeCommonsAttribution3.0IGOlicense(CCBY3.0IGO)https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/.Byusingthecontentofthispublication,youagreetobeboundbythetermsofthislicense.Forattribution,translations,adaptations,andpermissions,pleasereadtheprovisionsandtermsofuseathttps://www.adb.org/terms-use#openaccess. ThisCClicensedoesnotapplytonon-ADBcopyrightmaterialsinthispublication.Ifthematerialisattributedtoanothersource,pleasecontactthecopyrightownerorpublisherofthatsourceforpermissiontoreproduceit.ADBcannotbeheldliableforanyclaimsthatariseasaresultofyouruseofthematerial. Pleasecontactpubsmarketing@adb.orgifyouhavequestionsorcommentswithrespecttocontent,orifyouwishtoobtaincopyrightpermissionforyourintendedusethatdoesnotfallwithintheseterms,orforpermissiontousetheADBlogo. CorrigendatoADBpublicationsmaybefoundathttp://www.adb.org/publications/corrigenda.Notes: Inthispublication,“$”referstoUnitedStatesdollars. ADBrecognizes“America”astheUnitedStatesand“China”asthePeople’sRepublicofChina. TheADBEconomicsWorkingPaperSeriespresentsdata,information,and/orfindingsfromongoingresearchandstudiestoencourageexchangeofideasandtoelicitcommentandfeedbackaboutdevelopmentissuesinAsiaandthePacific.Sincepapersinthisseriesareintendedforquickandeasydissemination,thecontentmayormaynotbefullyeditedandmaylaterbemodifiedforfinalpublication. ABSTRACT Thisstudyintroducesamethodologytoestimatetheeconomy-specifictaskcontentofoccupationsacrosseconomiesatdifferentincomelevels.Combiningthesewithemploymentdatain87economies,theresultsshowthatoccupationsinlow-andmiddle-incomeeconomiesaremoreroutine-intensivethaninhigh-incomeeconomies,whichisattributedtolowertechnologyuseinless-developedeconomies.Non-routineworkcontinuestodominateinhigh-incomeeconomieswhileroutineworkremainsinlow-incomeandmiddle-incomeeconomies.Thesefindings,usingeconomy-specificestimatesofoccupationaltaskcontent,contradicttheassumptionbasedonconventionalmeasuresthattaskcontentofoccupationsisconvergingglobally.Thefindingofdivergenttrendsintherelativeroutineintensityofworkindevelopedanddevelopingeconomieshasimportantpolicyimplications.Investmentinskills,technologyuse,andparticipationinglobalvaluechainsarekeyfactorsforworkcontentandproductivitytoconvergewiththoseinhigh-incomeeconomies.Theassumptionthatoccupationsareconverginggloballymayalsooverestimatetheroleofroutine-replacingtechnologicalchangeinexplainingwageinequalityinlow-ormiddle-incomeeconomies. Keywords:occupationaltaskcontent,routine-taskintensity,skills,jobsdivergence,wageinequality JELcodes:J24,J31,O14,O15 1.Introduction Theshiftfromroutine-intensivejobstonon-routineworkhasbeenacriticalfeatureof21st-centurylabormarkets.Ithasbeendrivenbytechnologicalprogressandglobalizationandhascontributedtorisingwagepolarizationinmanyeconomies(Autoretal.2003,Goosetal.2014).Overthepastdecade,agrowingbodyofresearchhasstudiedtheevolutionofthetaskcontentofjobs.Itinvestigatedpatternsovertimeandacrosseconomies,therelativeimportanceofdemandandsupplyfactors,andtheconsequencesoftheseprocessesforwageinequality(Acemo