2023年3月及Q1经济数据点评：开局良好，可适度上调全年GDP增速预期

1 wind wind 2023-03 2023前2月 2022-12 2022-11 2022-10 2022-09 2022-08 2022-07 2022-06 2022-05 2022-04 2022-03 社零（当月同比） 10.6% 3.5% -1.8% -5.9% -0.5% 2.5% 5.4% 2.7% 3.1% -6.7% -11.1% -3.5% 社零：商品零售（当月同比） 9.1% 2.9% -0.1% -5.6% 0.5% 3.0% 5.1% 3.2% 3.9% -5.0% -9.7% -2.1% 社零：餐饮（当月同比） 26.3% 9.2% -14.1% -8.4% -8.1% -1.7% 8.4% -1.5% -4.0% -21.1% -22.7% -16.4% 固投（累计同比） 5.1% 5.5% 5.1% 5.3% 5.8% 5.9% 5.8% 5.7% 6.1% 6.2% 6.8% 9.3% 制造业投资（累计同比） 7.0% 8.1% 9.1% 9.3% 9.7% 10.1% 10.0% 9.9% 10.4% 10.6% 12.2% 15.6% 基建投资（累计同比） 10.8% 12.2% 11.5% 11.7% 11.4% 11.2% 10.4% 9.6% 9.3% 8.2% 8.3% 10.5% 房地产开发投资（累计同比） -5.8% -5.7% -10.0% -9.8% -8.8% -8.0% -7.4% -6.4% -5.4% -4.0% -2.7% 0.7% 固投（当月同比） 4.7% 5.5% 3.1% 0.7% 5.0% 6.6% 6.5% 3.5% 5.8% 4.5% 1.8% 6.7% 制造业投资（当月同比） 6.2% 8.1% 7.4% 6.2% 6.9% 10.7% 10.6% 7.5% 9.9% 7.1% 6.4% 11.9% 基建投资（当月同比） 9.9% 12.2% 10.4% 13.9% 12.8% 16.3% 15.4% 11.5% 12.0% 7.9% 4.3% 11.8% 房地产开发投资（当月同比） -5.9% -5.7% -12.7% -19.9% -16.1% -12.1% -13.8% -12.1% -9.6% -7.7% -10.1% -2.4% �口金额（美元，当月同比） 14.8% -6.8% -9.9% -8.7% -0.3% 5.9% 7.2% 18.0% 17.1% 16.3% 3.5% 14.4% 进口金额（美元，当月同比） -1.4% -10.2% -7.5% -10.6% -0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 2.0% 0.4% 3.7% 0.2% 0.7% 工业增加值（当月同比） 3.9% 2.4% 1.3% 2.2% 5.0% 6.3% 4.2% 3.8% 3.9% 0.7% -2.9% 5.0% 服务业生产指数（当月同比） 9.2% 5.5% -0.8% -1.9% 0.1% 1.3% 1.8% 0.6% 1.3% -5.1% -6.1% -0.9% 制造业PMI 51.9 1月50.1，2月52.6 47.0 48.0 49.2 50.1 49.4 49 50.2 49.6 47.4 49.5 非制造业PMI 58.2 1月54.4，2月56.3 41.6 46.7 48.7 50.6 52.6 53.8 54.7 47.8 41.9 48.4 建筑业PMI 65.6 1月56.4，2月60.2 54.4 55.4 58.2 60.2 56.5 59.2 56.6 52.2 52.7 58.1 服务业PMI 56.9 1月54.0，2月55.6 39.4 45.1 47 48.9 51.9 52.8 54.3 47.1 40 46.7 wind wind 2021 wind / = wind 2021 wind 商品类别 2023-03 2023-02 2022-12 2022-11 2022-10 2022-09 2022-08 2022-07 2022-06 2022-05 2022-04 2022-03 限额以上企业商品零售总额 8.50% 1.50% -0.20% -5.70% 0.00% 6.60% 9.10% 7.50% 8.80% -5.30% -13.30% -0.42% 汽车类 3.32% -2.65% 1.38% -1.06% 1.04% 3.92% 4.56% 2.84% 3.87% -4.82% -9.93% -2.30% 石油及制品类 1.35% 1.46% -0.37% -0.20% 0.14% 1.42% 2.44% 2.12% 1.89% 1.17% 0.65% 1.42% 服装鞋帽、针、纺织品类 1.32% 0.50% -1.16% -1.51% -0.70% -0.04% 0.39% 0.06% 0.10% -1.47% -1.96% -1.08% 金银珠宝类 0.59% 0.15% -0.34% -0.12% -0.05% 0.04% 0.15% 0.38% 0.13% -0.32% -0.48% -0.34% 粮油、食品类 0.51% 1.11% 1.11% 0.40% 0.91% 0.98% 0.90% 0.67% 0.91% 1.27% 1.03% 1.27% 中西药品类 0.49% 0.71% 1.51% 0.30% 0.33% 0.36% 0.36% 0.31% 0.43% 0.40% 0.31% 0.45% 日用品类 0.36% 0.19% -0.45% -0.47% -0.10% 0.25% 0.18% 0.03% 0.21% -0.32% -0.47% -0.04% 烟酒类 0.27% 0.24% -0.25% -0.06% -0.02% -0.34% 0.24% 0.22% 0.14% 0.10% -0.20% 0.20% 化妆品类 0.26% 0.09% -0.43% -0.17% -0.09% -0.08% -0.16% 0.01% 0.22% -0.29% -0.51% -0.18% 通讯器材类 0.07% -0.35% -0.16% -0.95% -0.44% 0.23% -0.17% 0.17% 0.31% -0.26% -0.81% 0.11% 家具类 0.03% 0.04% -0.07% -0.05% -0.08% -0.09% -0.10% -0.08% -0.08% -0.13% -0.15% -0.09% 文化办公用品类 -0.05% -0.03% -0.01% -0.06% -0.05% 0.26% 0.19% 0.30% 0.28% -0.07% -0.11% 0.24% 建筑及装潢材料类 -0.06% -0.01% -0.12% -0.13% -0.12% -0.11% -0.13% -0.11% -0.06% -0.10% -0.16% 0.01% 家用电器和音像器材类 -0.08% -0.09% -0.74% -1.26% -0.80% -0.35% 0.20% 0.45% 0.25% -0.64% -0.44% -0.26% 饮料类 -0.09% 0.10% 0.09% -0.11% 0.07% 0.10% 0.12% 0.06% 0.04% 0.14% 0.10% 0.20% wind wind wind 2021 wind 2021 wind wind 2021 wind 2021 wind 2021 wind 2021