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易纲行长在彼得森国际经济研究所(PIIE)的演讲纪要–20230417

2023-04-18未知机构在***
易纲行长在彼得森国际经济研究所(PIIE)的演讲纪要–20230417

PIIE演讲会议纪要 It'sapleasureformetobehereandtoseesomanyoldandnewfriendsheretoday.I'dliketotakethisopportunitytosharesomeofmythoughtsonChina'smonetarypolicyandthethinkingbehindit.Inmyspeech,I'llcoverthreemainpoints.First,I'llexplainhowweconsiderinterestratepolicyandthenlettheexchangeratebedeterminedbythemarket.Finally,I'lltouchonourstructuralmonetarypolicy,especiallyoureffortstosupportsmallandmediumenterprisesandgreenfinance. 今天很高兴来到这里,见到这么多新老朋友。我想借此机会分享我对中国货币政策的一些看法和背后的思考。在我的演讲中,我将介绍三个要点。首先,我会解释我们如何考虑利率政策,然后让汇率由市场决定。最后,我会谈谈我们的结构性货币政策,特别是我们支持中小企业和绿色金融的努力。 1.Interestratepolicy 一、利率政策 1.1Whatistheappropriateinterestratelevel? 1.1什么是合适的利率水平? Wearecurrentlyimplementingamonetarypolicy,andtheTailorruleisimportantforus.Wethinkthatinterestrateismostimportantinthemonetarypolicysetting.Andweconsiderthelongtermoptimaltrajectoryandalsoconsidertherelationshipoftherealinterestrateandthepotentialeconomicgrowthrate. 我们目前实施货币政策,泰勒规则对我们很重要。我们认为利率在货币政策环境中最为重要。我们考虑了长期最优轨迹,也考虑了实际利率和潜在经济增长率的关系。 Ithinkthatthebestapproachistosettherealinterestratemoreorlessequaltothepotentialgrowthrate,bothofwhicharerealvariables.However,calculatingtheseratescanbecontroversial.Ifthe interestrateistoohigh,itcandampeneconomicgrowth,whileifitistoolow,itmayfuelinflationandgeneratebubbles.Therefore,wetrytoavoidsettingtheinterestratetoohighortoolow.Forpracticalpurposes,ifitisdifficulttocalculatetherealinterestrateandthepotentialgrowthrate,Isuggesttakingaconservativeapproachandsettingtherealinterestrateslightlybelowthepotentialgrowthrate.Thatistheoverallstrategy. 我认为最好的方法是将实际利率设定得或多或少等于潜在增长率,两者都是实际变量。然而,计算这些比率可能会引起争议。利率过高会抑制经济增长,利率过低则可能助长通胀,产生 泡沫。因此,我们尽量避免将利率定得太高或太低。出于实际目的,如果难以计算实际利率和潜在增长率,我建议采取保守的方法,将实际利率设定为略低于潜在增长率。这就是总体战略。 1.2Howtoachievethatappropriateinterestratelevel? 1.2如何达到合适的利率水平? Theliteratureprovidesvariousschoolsofthoughtregardingmonetarypolicy,andIthinkthateveryonehere,beingexperts,isfamiliarwiththem.Someindividualswantaproactiveapproach,suchasmonetarypolicytodoacountercyclicalandKeynesianTheoryandBernankefinancialaccelerationandalsothehistoryofgreatdepressionandalsothehistoryofgreatinflationoccurredin1970s.Oneschoolofthoughtsuggeststhatmonetarypolicyshouldbecounter-cyclicalandactivelyinterveneinthemarketwithstrength,takingintoaccountthefinancialaccelerator. 文献提供了关于货币政策的各种思想流派,我觉得在座的每个人都是专家,都熟悉它们。有的人要积极主动,比如货币政策做逆周期,凯恩斯理论,伯南克金融加速,还有70年代大萧条的历史,大通胀的历史。一种学派认为,货币政策应逆周期,积极干预市场,兼顾金融加速器。 Anotherschoolofthoughtsuggestsamoreconservativeapproach,whichcanbecalledattenuation.Brainard's(1967)literatureonattenuationarguesthatifthereislesscertaintyaboutasituation,itisbettertoactconservativelyandleavesomeleewaywhenmakingdecisions. 另一种思想流派提出了一种更保守的方法,可以称为衰减(attenuation)。Brainard(1967)关于衰减的文献认为,如果情况的确定性较低,则最好采取保守行动并在决策时留出一些回旋余地。 IwastrainedasaneconometricianduringmyPhDprogram,andmythesisfocusedontheSteinestimator.TheSteinestimatortakestheleastsquareestimator,whichisanunbiasedestimator,andshrinksittowardstheoverallmeanalittlebit.Asaresult,theriskfunction,whichisthesumofthesquaredeviation,isalwayssmallerfortheSteinestimatorthanfortheleastsquareestimator. 我在博士课程期间接受了计量经济学的培训,我的论文侧重于Stein估计量。Stein估计采用最小二乘估计(无偏估计)并将其向总体均值缩小一点。因此,作为方差之和的风险函数对于Stein估计量总是小于最小二乘估计量。 Whatdoesthatmeanininterestratepolicy?Tomakethelongstorysimple,whenIconsiderinterestratedecision,basicallyIconsiderconservativepolicyorattenuationpolicyandconsiderthecyclicalaswellasacrossregion.Economiccycleshavedifferentstages,suchasboomorrecession,andeachcycletakestime.Whenmakinganinterestratedecision,IconsiderthecurrentsituationoftheChineseeconomy,butalsothedurationofthecycleandthenextstageitwillenter.Additionally,Itakeintoaccountthecycleandregionalaverages.AlthoughmyfocusisonChina,IalsoexamineotherregionssuchastheUnitedStates,Europe,ASEAN,andJapan.Imakedecisionscautiously,shrinkingtowardsthecycleandregionalaverages,whichmeansfullyrecognizingthetimelagofthemonetarypolicyandalsolookingaheadandtryingtoactandadjustahead. 这在利率政策中意味着什么?长话短说,我在考虑利率决策时,基本上是考虑保守政策或衰减政策,同时考虑周期性以及跨区域。经济周期有繁荣或衰退等不同阶段,每个周期都需要时间。在做利率决策时,我会考虑中国经济的现状,还会考虑周期的持续时间和进入的下一阶段。此外,我还考虑了周期和区域平均值。虽然我的重点是中国,但我也考察了其他地区,如美国、欧洲、东盟和日本。我谨慎决策,决策向周期和区域平均收缩,这意味着充分认识到货币政策的时间滞后性,也意味着向前看,并尝试提前行动和调整。 1.3China’schoiceoninterestratepolicy? 1.3中国利率政策的选择? SothephilosophyIwanttoconveyistheGoldenmeanorGoldenrule.ThisisaChinesephilosophyandaphilosophyofAristotle,whichmeansconsideringthecurrentsituationwhilealsolookingintothepastandfuture.Additionally,itinvolvesfocusingontheChineseeconomywhilealsotakingintoaccountotherregionsoftheworld.Bytakingthemeanintoconsiderationandshrinkingtheestimatetowardsit,wecanmakedecisionscautiously.Butthebarkoftheconsiderationisstillthefocusingeconomy,whichisChineseeconomy.ThatistheGoldenmeanphilosophyI'mtalkingabout. 所以我想传达的哲学是中庸之道。这是中国哲学,也是亚里士多德的哲学,就是既要审时度势,又要展望过去和未来。此外,它涉及在关注中国经济的同时兼顾世界其他地区,通过考虑均值并缩小对它的估计,我们可以谨慎地做出决定。但考虑的主题仍然是重点经济,即中国经济。这就是我所说的中庸之道。 Letmegiveyouafewexamplesofhowthiskindofthinkingcanbeimplementedininterestratepolicy.Considertheperiodfrom2015to2023,andspecificallytheyear2018.TheFederalReservestarttoincreas