2023年中国政府工作报告：宏观、投资策略及行业分析

1 202335 2023: 2023 3612141617 / 1819 1 2023 2023 3 5 202335 2022 2023 5 2023 2022 5 2022 5.5% 2.8% 3% 1206 2%17.7% 1.37742022 5 70 2.417500 6.2% 12022 GDP ,% 5.5 3.0 , 11.0 12.06 ,% 5.5 5.5 , 1.3 1.37 % 2.8 2.8 ,% 3.0 2.0 1215.2% :20222023 2023GDP5.0% 2023 5.0% 2022 5.5% 2 2023 2023 2023 5.0% GDP5.0% 2 2023 GDP ,% 5.0 5.0 , 12.0 12.0 ,% 5.5 5.0 GDP ,% 3.0 3.0 ,% 3.0 2.0 :2023 3% 2.8%3.8 3.652023 2023 2023 GDP3.0% 2023 2023 15LPR3.55% 4.10%2023RRR 2023 6.65006.8986 3.7% 1200 2023 5.5% 2022100 20222022 12065.5% 20233.0%2022 2023 2.0% 2023CPI CPI 20222023 2023PPI20224.1%0.0% 2023 35.0% 2023 2023 : “ ” “ ” “ ” 20232023 1 3.8 “” 23 “ ” 4 CPTPP 5678 12016-2022R&D 32,000 30,000 28,000 26,000 30,870 15.0% 14.0% 13.0% 24,000 22,000 20,000 18,000 16,000 14,000 12.0% 0.4 2016-22CAGR12.0% 1 % 11.0% 10.0% 9.0% 8.0% 2016201720182019202020212022 () R&D 1 2023 2 R&D R&D R&D GDP 2.60% 2.50% 2.40% 2.30% 2.20% 2.10% 2.00% 2.55% 2.41% 2.43% 2.24% 2.10% 2.12% 2.14% 2016201720182019202020212022 1 2023 “ ” 2020 3 50 “ ” 50 3/ 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 10.4%10.3% 8.4% 8.4% 9.2% 9.0% 8.8% 9.5% 8.9% 6.6% 5.6% 5.7% 6.6% 6.1%6.1% 4.9%4.9% 5.4% 5.3%5.3% 5.1% Q12020 Q22020 Q32020 Q42020 Q12021 Q22021 Q32021 Q42021 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q42022 50 50 : 4.5% 5.7% 20202022 50 50 50 450 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 15.4 16.2 15.815.8 15.0 14.414.5 11.211.111.1 8.9 7.57.67.5 7.1 7.1 5.45.6 5.6 6.4 6.1 6.2 3.8 4.3 Q12020 Q22020 Q32020 Q42020 Q12021 Q22021 Q32021 Q42021 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q42022 (%) (%) : 5 14.4 12.3 10.5 9.1 13.4 11.8 11.8 12.712.712.7 11.5 11.7 6.56.46.46.97.1 6.1 6.1 4.8 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.7 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 Q12020 Q22020 Q32020 Q42020 Q12021 Q22021 Q32021 Q42021 Q12022 Q22022 Q32022 Q42022 (%) (%) : 50 50 50 20229.2% 2020 60% 5050 650 12.0 10.0 5.7 8.0 9.910.210.210.510.39.9 5.0 5.3 5.9 5.4 8.98.99.3 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.9 Q42020Q12021Q22021Q32021Q42021Q12022Q22022Q32022Q42022 (%) (%) : 50 2022 50 5.5%10.2% 6.2%12.8% / 12 12 33 33 7 50 50 5020 5020 300750 13,673 5.11% 688599 4,035 5.65% 300760 3,184 10.91% 688223 2,637 6.50% 300207 2,605 5.39% 688180 2,282 51.40% 300433 2,413 5.62% 688036 1,975 3.98% 300124 2,163 10.38% 688561 1,850 29.24% 300014 1,887 6.35% 688187 1,823 11.81% 300274 1,471 4.75% -- 1,553 3.70% 300450 1,349 9.57% 688256 1,395 182.82% 300003 1,179 12.05% 688111 1,344 36.30% 300601 1,097 28.57% 688099 1,160 19.52% 300142 1,096 21.74% 688271 1,048 14.45% 300033 1,067 29.98% 688220 1,028 48.13% 300118 1,026 3.82% 688012 863 21.16% 300059 961 7.38% 688521 834 33.32% 300073 783 4.56% 688396 830 8.34% 300136 697 8.30% 688041 745 32.23% 300223 659 11.56% 688981 733 10.08% 300122 632 1.72% 688185 651 20.44% 300316 617 6.54% 688772 623 6.03% 300661 554 17.77% 688536 605 31.76% 10 9.87% 10 35.09% 20 10.60% 20 28.84% 21-40 5.34% 21-40 8.25% 2022-23 2022 2023 , , , 2022-23 2023,, , ,2022 , 10 2022,,1.63%, ,,, ,, , , , , , ,2023 ,20232 2022 15 1.91% , ,20212.08% 20238- 2022-23 2022 2023 -- 2022-23 5  1-211.6% 100 124.26%1.37 15%  30 80% REITs REITs REIT 2022-23 2022 2023 2022-23  2022 956  2022-23 2022 2023 3% 3% 2022-23  3% 5.0% 5.5%  / : 2022-23 2022 2023 2022-23        : 2022-23 2022 2023 5G 5G 2022-23 2022 5G 5G 2023 5G231.22023 605G291.220225G 5.6133.3%202337.0% 5G5GARPU 5G 2035 IPv6 2025  5G  5G 2023 2023 5G 5G 1 2021 2022 2023 : : 30% , : : , : , : 100 3% 3% 3% / :“” 7% : : : : : 10% 5G 5G 5G 2021-23 - yaoshaohua@abci.com.hk - philipchan@abci.com.hk - johannesau@abci.com.hk - stevechow@abci.com.hk - kennethtung@abci.com.hk / - paulpan@abci.com.hk - rickylai@abci.com.hk =2006 8.4% / / , , 12 (9%) (-9%) < < (9%) ( -9%) = 12 + 2006-22 () . ( ) () 2023 8 13 : :