China's route to carbon neutrality - Perspectives and the role of renewables

China'sroutetocarbonneutrality:Perspectivesandtheroleofrenewables ©IRENA2022 Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenofIRENAasthesourceandcopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationthatisattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial. ISBN:978-92-9260-449-3 IRENA(2022),China'sroutetocarbonneutrality:Perspectivesandtheroleofrenewables,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi. AboutIRENA TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)servesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,arepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledge,andadriverofactiononthegroundtoadvancethetransformationoftheglobalenergysystem.Anintergovernmentalorganisationestablishedin2011,IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.www.irena.org Acknowledgements IRENAwouldliketoexpresssincereappreciationtotheexpertswhoreviewedthereport.InsightfulcommentsandconstructivesuggestionswereprovidedbytheEnergyResearchInstituteoftheAcademyofMacroeconomicResearch,China. SpecialthanksgotoPaulKomor,whoprovidedhelpfulfeedbackandadvice. IRENAcolleaguesHeribBlanco,SeungwooKang,MartinaLyons,DanielRusso,FranciscoBoshell,CarlosFernandez,FaranRanaandJinleiFengprovidedvaluablereviewsandinput. Contributingauthors Thisreportwasprepared,undertheguidanceofDolfGielen(Director,IRENAInnovationandTechnologyCentre)byPaulDurrant(formerIRENAstaff),NicholasWagner,YongChen(IRENA)andYufengYang(consultant). Disclaimer Thispublicationandthematerialhereinareprovided“asis”.AllreasonableprecautionshavebeentakenbyIRENAtoverifythereliabilityofthematerialinthispublication.However,neitherIRENAnoranyofitsofficials,agents,dataorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein. TheinformationcontainedhereindoesnotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofallMembersofIRENA.ThementionofspecificcompaniesorcertainprojectsorproductsdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommendedbyIRENAinpreferencetoothersofasimilarnaturethatarenotmentioned.Thedesignationsemployed,andthepresentationofmaterialherein,donotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAconcerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries. CONTENTS ABBREVIATIONS5 EXECUTIVESUMMARY6 IRENA’stechnology-focusedanalysis7 Areasforactionandinitialrecommendations7 1.CHINA’SCARBONDIOXIDEEMISSIONGOALSINTHEGLOBALCONTEXT17 1.1Globalcontext17 1.2China’suniquecharacteristics18 2.SHAPINGASTRATEGYFORTHE2020sANDBEYOND20 2.1Developinganddeliveringanintegratedlong-termenergyplan21 2.2Maintainingenergyefficiencyimprovementsasapriority22 2.3Acceleratingthephase-downofcoalconsumption23 2.4Acceleratingthetransitiontowardsrenewablepower25 2.5Reformingpowernetworks27 2.6Increasingtheelectrificationofend-usesectors31 2.7Expandingthedirectuseofrenewables,particularlybiomassforenergypurposes34 2.8Scalinguptheproductionanduseofhydrogenandsyntheticfuels36 2.9Supportingcitiesaschampionsoflow-carbonliving39 2.10Continuingprogressinlight-dutytransportandbroadeningtoheavy-duty andlong-haulmodes40 2.11Layingthegroundworkforindustrialsectorstoachievenetzeroemissions44 2.12ContinuingtosupporttechnologyRD&Dandbroadersystemicinnovation48 2.13Deepeningglobalengagement49 3.CONCLUSIONSANDAREASFORFURTHERWORK51 REFERENCES52 FiguresFIGURE1 Emerginginnovationsfortheintegrationofvariablerenewableelectricity–enablingtechnologies,marketdesign,businessmodels,systemoperation 28 FIGURE2 Electrificationrateinfinalenergyconsumption(a),transport(b)andresidentialbuildings(c)bycountry,1980-2017 31 FIGURE3 Hydrogenproductioncosts,2020-2050 37 FIGURE4 ChineseindustrialCO2emissionsbysector,2020-2050(Referencecase) 45 BoxesBOX1 CDRmeasuresandCCUSforpowerandindustrialprocesses 29 BOX2 Chinesecitycasestudy:UrbanenergytransformationinZhangjiakou 40 ABBREVIATIONS °C degreesCelsius BECCU/S bioenergywithcarboncaptureandutilisation/storage CCS carboncaptureandstorage CCU carboncaptureandutilisation CCUS carboncapture,utilisationandstorage CDR carbondioxideremoval CO2 carbondioxide DACCS directaircarboncaptureandstorage EJ exajoule EU EuropeanUnion GDP grossdomesticproduct Gt gigatonne GW gigawatt IRENA InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency kWh kilowatthour LNG liquefiednaturalgas LTES Long-TermEnergyScenario Mt milliontonnes MWh megawatthour PV photovoltaic RD&D research,developmentanddeployment SEGSN StateGrid’sSmartEV-to-GridServiceNetwork SGERI ChinaStateGridEnergyInstitute TWh terawatthour WETO WorldEnergyTransitionsOutlook EXECUTI