精麻老牌劲旅，新药上市迎蜕变

Old-brandleaderofpsychopharmaceuticalsandnarcoticsseesmeaningfultransformationwiththelaunchofnewdrugs Buy(Initiation) Forecast&Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue(RMBmn) 3,936 4,304 5,123 6,328 Growth(YoY%) 17% 9% 19% 24% Netprofit(RMBmn) 798 904 1,101 1,380 Growth(YoY%) 9% 13% 22% 25% EPS(RMB) 0.79 0.90 1.09 1.37 P/E(X) 30.06 26.53 21.77 17.38 Keywords:#newproducts,technology,clients InvestmentThesis Mainlogic:1)Intensivelaunchofnewdrugsislikelytodrive2023-25CAGRtoreach20%forJiangsuNhwaPharmaceutical(JSNP);2)Diminishinginfluenceofcentralizedprocurementcontributestohighvisibilityofitslong-termgrowth;3)Bothquantityandpriceofnewdrugsgrowwithindustrytransition;4)PerioperativeproductsbenefitfromliberalizationofCovidcontrolmeasuresandexpansionofICU,hopefullydrivingshort-termperformancetobeatexpectation;5)ValuationofJSNP'ssharesisatahistoricallow. WeexpectTRV130tobecomeitssecondcurvewithmarketsizeofRmb2.4bn.Oliceridineinjection(TRV130)isaGprotein-biasedμ-opioidreceptor(MOR)agonist,introducedfromTrevenaU.S.,thatreducesadversereactions.WeseehighcertaintyofstrongdemandforTRV130:1)TRV130isexpectedtobelaunchedin1Q23,thankstoitsadvanceR&Dprogress;2)JSNPenjoysmaturesalessystemanddistinctchanneladvantages;3)Lowincidencerateofanalgesia-relatednausea,vomiting,respiratorydepressionandotheradversereactionsforTRV130;4)WeseestrongcompetencyofTRV130intheinnovativeopiumanalgesicmarketof~Rmb19.7bn,inwhichonlySHR8554,SHR0410andother2drugsareinthelatestageofclinicaltrial.WebelievethatsalesofTRV130arelikelytoreachitspeakofRmb2.4bnin2030,withRmb105perunit,20mnunits,9.1mnusers,andapenetrationrateofonly8.6%oftherelatedpopulation. UpgradedanalgesicproductscontributetonewsourcesofJSNP'sgrowth.ThemarketsizeoffentanylseriesplusoxycodoneexceedsRmb6.0bn,with80%+ofthemarketsharedominatedbyHumanwellHealthcareandMundipharma.JSNP'sanalgesicsunderCDS(ControlledDrugSubstance)receivedapprovalin2020and2021,andwithonly<4%ofthemarketsharecurrently,weexpectitslaunchtocapturethemarket.Endmarketsizeofdezocine,ledbyYangtzeRiverPharmaceuticalGroup,reachedRmb8.2bnin2021.JSNPexpectsitsdezocineproductstobeapprovedin2Q23,contributingtomeaningfulearningselasticity.Meanwhile,developmentofdrugswithhighGPMdrivesupJNSP'soverallprofitability,withpricesoftraditionaletomidateandmidazolam<rmb40/unit,andpricesofrecentlyapprovedanalgesicsinRmb90-140/unit. Weseehighvisibilityoflong-termgrowthforJSNPwithdiminishinginfluenceofcentralizedprocurementandhighbarriersofpsychopharmaceuticalandnarcoticdrugs.Wholeprocessofproduction,distribution,andsalesforpsychopharmaceuticalandnarcoticdrugsareundertightregulation,leadingtostablecompetitivelandscapeandpriceinthemediumandlongrun.Unfavorableinfluenceofcentralizedprocurementbasicallyfadesaway,andJSNP’spsychopharmaceuticals(suchasrisperidone,aripiprazole,andduloxetine),narcoticdrugs(suchasdexmedetomidineandpropofol),andnervoussystemdrugs(suchasgabapentin)havealreadybeenincludedinthecentralizedprocurementlist.NoproductsfromJSNParelistedinthe7thand8thlist. EarningsForecast&Rating:WeexpectittoachievenetprofitofRmb0.9/1.1/1.38bn, withcorrespondingP/Eat27x/22x/17x.WeinitiatewiththeBuyrating. Risks:Centralizedprocurement,intensifiedcompetition,R&Dfailure,pandemicimpacts. 27February2023 ResearchAnalystRuibinChen(852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk PricePerformance JiangsuNhwaPharmaceuticalCSI30075% 64% 53% 42% 31% 20% 9% -2% -13% -24% 2022/02/072022/06/062022/10/032023/01/30 MarketData Closingprice(RMB) 23.80 52-weekRange(RMB) 10.97/26.25 P/B(X) 4.39 MarketCap(RMBmn) 23,980.6 BasicDataBVPS(RMB) 5.42 Liabilities/assets(%) 12.93 TotalIssuedShares(mn) 1,007.59 Sharesoutstanding(mn) 881.76 Relatedreports 《恩华药业(002262)：招标放量驱动核心品种高速增长，业绩超预期》 2019-02-28 《恩华药业(002262)：扣非增长超预期，工业板块招标放量显著，商业板块受两票制影响下滑》 2018-10-23 SoochowSecuritiesInternationalBrokerageLimitedwouldliketoacknowledgethecontributionandsupportprovidedbySoochowResearchInstitute,andinparticular itsemployeeGuoguangZhu(朱国广). 东吴证券（香港） 1/7 精麻老牌劲旅，新药上市迎蜕变 买入（首次） 2023年2月27日 证券分析师 陈睿彬 (852)39823212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk 股价走势 恩华药业沪深300 盈利预测与估值 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营业总收入（百万元） 3,936 4,304 5,123 6,328 同比 17% 9% 19% 24% 归属母公司净利润（百万元） 798 904 1,101 1,380 同比 9% 13% 22% 25% 每股收益-最新股本摊薄（元/股） 0.79 0.90 1.09 1.37 P/E（现价最新股本摊薄） 30.06 26.53 21.77 17.38 关键词：#新产品、新技术、新客户投资要点 投资逻辑：1）新品密集上市，业绩加速，2023-25年增长中枢有望达20%；2）集采出清，长逻辑通顺；3）行业新老交替，新药“量价齐升”；4）疫情放开+ICU扩建，围手术产品受益，短期业绩有望超预期；5）估值历史底部，亟待修复。�重因素共振，上行趋势明确。 TRV130引领第二增长曲线，有望成为24亿元级重磅。Oliceridine注射液（简称“TRV130”）自美国Trevena公司引进，G蛋白偏向性μ-阿片受体（MOR）激动剂能够减少不良反应。TRV130放量确定性较强：1）研发进度领先，有望于1Q23上市；2）恩华药业销售体系成熟，渠 道优势明显；3）镇痛相关恶心、呕吐、呼吸抑制等不良反应发生率低；4）竞争格局较好，TRV130定位197亿镇痛市场，阿片类创新镇痛药物，临床后期的仅SHR8554、SHR0410等4款。我们预计，TRV130将 于2030年达到销售峰值24亿元，对应105元/支，销量2千万只，用 药人数为910万，手术相关人群渗透率仅8.6%。 镇痛产品推陈出新，贡献新增长点。“芬太尼系列+羟考酮”市场超60亿元，人福医药、萌蒂市占率超80%。公司管制类镇痛药于2020-21年集中获批，市占率＜4%，有望抢占市场。地佐辛2021年终端达82亿元，由扬子江主导，公司“光脚”地佐辛预计2Q23获批，贡献弹性。 同时，传统品种依托咪酯、咪达唑仑价格不超过40元/支，新获批镇痛 药在90-140元/支，高毛利品种带动盈利能力提升。 集采出清，精麻药物高壁垒，长逻辑通顺。精麻药物生产、流通、销售全流程受到强监管，格局、价格中长期稳定。集采利空基本出清，公司精神类产品（如利培酮、阿立哌