农业项目是否有助于小农过渡到更好的生计战略？（英）

IFPRIDiscussionPaper02157 December2022 DoAgriculturalProjectsHelpSmallholdersTransitiontoBetterLivelihoodStrategies? PeterHazellAnneG.TimuSaraSavastano PieroMassotti EnvironmentandProductionTechnologyDivision INTERNATIONALFOODPOLICYRESEARCHINSTITUTE TheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI),aCGIARResearchCenterestablishedin1975,providesresearch-basedpolicysolutionstosustainablyreducepovertyandendhungerandmalnutrition.IFPRI’sstrategicresearchaimstofosteraclimate-resilientandsustainablefoodsupply;promotehealthydietsandnutritionforall;buildinclusiveandefficientmarkets,tradesystems,andfoodindustries;transformagriculturalandruraleconomies;andstrengtheninstitutionsandgovernance.GenderisintegratedinalltheInstitute’swork.Partnerships,communications,capacitystrengthening,anddataandknowledgemanagementareessentialcomponentstotranslateIFPRI’sresearchfromactiontoimpact. TheInstitute’sregionalandcountryprogramsplayacriticalroleinrespondingtodemandforfoodpolicyresearchandindeliveringholisticsupportforcountry-leddevelopment.IFPRIcollaborateswithpartnersaroundtheworld. AUTHORS PeterHazell(p.hazell@cgiar.org)isanEmeritusResearchFellowoftheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI),Washington,DC. AnneG.Timu(a.timu@cgiar.org)isanAssociateResearchFellowinIFPRI’sEnvironmentandProductionTechnologyDivision,Washington,DC. SaraSavastano(s.savastano@ifad.org)isthecurrentdirectoroftheResearchandImpactAssessmentDivisionoftheInternationalFundforAgriculturalDevelopment(IFAD),Rome,Italy. PieroMassotti(p.massotti@ifad.org)isaResearchConsultantintheResearchandImpactAssessmentDivisionofIFAD,Rome,Italy. Notices 1IFPRIDiscussionPaperscontainpreliminarymaterialandresearchresultsandarecirculatedinordertostimulatediscussionandcriticalcomment.TheyhavenotbeensubjecttoaformalexternalreviewviaIFPRI’sPublicationsReviewCommittee.Anyopinionsstatedhereinarethoseoftheauthor(s)andarenotnecessarilyrepresentativeoforendorsedbyIFPRI. 2Theboundariesandnamesshownandthedesignationsusedonthemap(s)hereindonotimplyofficialendorsementoracceptancebytheInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute(IFPRI)oritspartnersandcontributors. 3Copyrightremainswiththeauthors.Theauthorsarefreetoproceed,withoutfurtherIFPRIpermission,topublishthispaper,oranyrevisedversionofit,inoutletssuchasjournals,books,andotherpublications. ABSTRACT Agriculturalprojectstypicallyaimtopromotetheuptakeofprojectcomponentsamongsttargetedfarmpopulationstoimprovetheiron-farmproductivitywithina“theoryofchange”thatleadstoimprovementsintheirwelfare.Whilethisapproachcanbeanimportantfirststeptowardsimprovingsmallholderlivelihoods,itignoresalternativeandoftensuperiorlivelihoodoptionsthatmightarisewithintheruraltransformationprocess.Theseoptionscanbeparticularlyimportantforagriculturalvaluechainprojectsthatgeneratenewmarketopportunitiesandsecondaryoff-farmincomeandemploymentgrowthwithintheruralnonfarmeconomy.Wearguethatthedesignofsmallholderprojectsimplementedwithinregionsalreadyundergoingadynamictransformationand/oronprojectswhichhavesignificantvaluechaincomponents,shouldbebroadenedtoassistsmallholdersmakesuccessfultransitionstotheirbestlivelihoodoptions.Forsuchprojects,M&Eshouldalsotracklivelihoodtransitionsaswellastheusualassessmentsofprogressmade,theachievementofexpectedgoals,andtheidentificationofbottlenecksinimplementation.Tohelpoperationalizesuchanapproach,weproposeatypologyofsmallholderlivelihoodstrategiesthatcantracktransitionsovertimeandillustrateitsusewithanIFADfundedagriculturalvaluechainprojectinMalawi.Usingeconometricmethodsandavailablehouseholdpaneldata,wefindthattheprojecthelpedsomesmallholderstransitionoutofsubsistencefarmingtomarketfarmingwithacorrespondingincreaseintheirpercapitaincomes.Theprojectalsohelpedsomehouseholdstransitionto,orremainwith,anoff-farmincomediversificationstrategywithfavorablepercapitaincomeoutcomes.Thismayreflectnewopportunitiesthataroseasspilloverbenefitsfromtheprojectalonglocalagriculturalvaluechainsandwithintheruralnonfarmeconomymorebroadly.Weconcludewithsomelessonsforthedesign,monitoringandevaluationoffutureagriculturalprojects. Keywords:Agriculturalprojects,impactassessments,typologiesofsmallfarms,smallfarmtransitions. ACKNOWLEDGMENT WethanktheInternationalFundforAgriculturalDevelopment(IFAD)fortheirfinancialsupporttothiswork.WearealsogratefultoGiuseppeMaggioandRominaCavatassiforgivingusaccesstoandhelpingusunderstandthedatausedinthepaper,andtoAthurMabisoforearlierconversationsthathelpedshapetheanalysis. ThisDiscussionpaperistheproductofajointcollaborationbetweenauthorsaffiliatedtoIFPRIandIFAD.Ithasbeenpublishedwiththeaimtoencouragetheexchangeofideasaboutthetopicsdeveloped,togetthefindingsoutquickly,evenifthepresentationsarelessthanfullypolished.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthispaperareentirelythoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIFPRI/IFADanditsaffiliatedorganizations,orthoseoftheExecutiveDirectorsofIFADorthegovernmentstheyrepresent. INTRODUCTION