与大客户签订23年储能订单，储能发展再超预期

Shenzhen Kstar（002518） Equity Research·Company Research·Other Power EquipmentII 1 / 5 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] New purchasing order for energy storage products from a big customer in 2023 guarantees Kstar’s rapid growth Buy (Maintain) Forecast & Valuation 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E Revenue (RMB mn) 2,806 4,325 8,555 14,344 Growth (YoY %) 16% 54% 98% 68% Net profit (RMB mn) 373 658 1,259 2,097 Growth (YoY %) 23% 76% 91% 67% EPS (RMB) 0.64 1.13 2.16 3.60 P/E (X) 74.65 42.35 22.13 13.29 Investment Thesis ◼ Event: Kstar announced that it recently received a $210mn (about Rmb1.461bn) purchasing order (PO) for energy storage products from customer A and was planning to deliver the order in 2023H1. ◼ We revise up Kstar’s revenue of energy storage business to Rmb4.5-5.0bn in 2023 because of the $210mn PO: Kstar’s energy storage business revenue mainly come from 3 parts: 1) Ksatr supplies LFP energy storage battery packs to customer A. We revise up Kstar’s revenue from customer A in 2023 to about Rmb3bn considering the new PO (corresponding to about 150,000-180,000 sets of LFP energy storage battery pack). 2) Kstar’s PO from Media is about 200 million sets of battery pack and will contribute Rmb600mn revenue in 2023H1. We believe Kstar’s revenue from Media in 2023 will reach Rmb0.9-1.0bn. 3) In 2022, Kstar successfully entered the supply chain of 2 energy storage integrators in Europe, obtaining Rmb100-300mn POs of all-in-one energy storage machines. We expect that Kstar will continue to achieve breakthroughs in North America in 2023. In summary, we expect in 2023 Kstar’s revenue of energy storage business to increase by 300% YoY to Rmb4.5-5.0bn, and profit of energy storage business to be Rmb800mn due to the scale effect, beating market expectation. ◼ Steady development of other businesses: 1) Kstar refocused on small and medium power string inverters and accelerated the construction of overseas channels. We expect Kstar's PV inverter business to grow by 40-50% YoY in 2023. 2) The charging pile market is increasing rapidly due to rapid development of new energy automobile. We expect Kstar's charging pile business to grow by 50%+ YoY in 2023. 3) We expect Kstar’s UPS business to grow by 10%+ YoY in 2023 due to its solid fundamental. Overall, we expect that Kstar's photovoltaic inverter, charging pile and UPS business will contribute a total profit of ~ Rmb500mn in 2023. ◼ Earnings Forecast & Rating: We maintain Buy rating with TP at Rmb75.6 (corresponding P/E at 35x in 2023), considering rapid development of Kstar’s multiple new energy businesses. We revise up Kstar’s earnings forecast and expect its net profit to increase by 76%/91%/67% YoY to Rmb0.658/1.259/2.097bn (previous forecast profit Rmb0.633/1.055/1.588bn) in 2022/2023/2024 respectively. ◼ Risks: Lower-than-expected downstream demand, insufficient supply of raw materials. [Table_PicQuote] Price Movement -50%-33%-16%1%18%35%52%69%86%103%2021/12/222022/04/222022/08/212022/12/20KstarCSI300 [Table_Base] Market Data Closing price (RMB) 47.83 52-week Range (RMB) 12.84/60.20 P/B (X) 8.28 Floating Market Cap (RMB mn) 27,041.02 Basic Data data BVPS (RMB) 5.77 Liabilities/Assets (%) 39.07 Total Issued Shares (mn) 582.45 Shares Outstanding (mn) 565.36 [Table_Report] Related reports 《科士达(002518)：修炼内功，携手龙头，光储充持续高增》 2022-10-23 《科士达(002518)：分布式拉动逆变器高增长，充电桩空间广阔》 2017-10-27 Soochow Securities International Brokerage Limited would like to acknowledge the contribution and support provided by Soochow Research Institute, and in particular its employees Duohong Zeng(曾朵红), Yanan Guo(郭亚男) and Zhedong Xie(谢哲栋). [Table_Author] 11 January 2023 Research Analyst Research Analyst Ruibin Chen Xxx (852) 3982 3212 chenrobin@dwzq.com.hk (852) 3000 0000 Xxx@dwzq.com.hk 科士达（002518） 证券研究报告·公司点评报告·其他电源设备II 2 / 5 东吴证券（香港） 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Main] 与大客户签订23年储能订单，储能发展再超预期 买入（维持） 盈利预测与估值 2021A 2022E 2023E 2024E 营业总收入（百万元） 2,806 4,325 8,555 14,344 同比 16% 54% 98% 68% 归属母公司净利润（百万元） 373 658 1,259 2,097 同比 23% 76% 91% 67% 每股收益-最新股本摊薄（元/股） 0.64 1.13 2.16 3.60 P/E（现价&最新股本摊薄） 74.65 42.35 22.13 13.29 投资要点 ◼ 事件：科士达发布公告，近期收到与客户A签订储能产品的采购订单，订单金额2.10亿美元（约合人民币14.61亿元），公司计划2023年上半年交付完毕。 ◼ 与客户A签订2023年订单，储能收入上调至45-50亿元。公司储能业务收入主要分成三部分：1）公司给客户A供应铁锂储能电池pack，考虑到此次新签订单2023年上半年交付14.6亿元，对应约15-18万套，我们上调2023年全年供应客户A的收入至30亿元左右；2）美的目前已签订单约2亿套，对应收入约6亿元，需在2023年上半年交付，我们预计2023年供美的的收入达9-10亿元；3）2022年公司持续拓展新客户，成功进入了欧洲2家集成商供应链，并已获得1-3亿元一体机订单，我们预计2023年北美市场亦会取得突破。储能业务合计来看，我们预计2023年公司储能业务收入达45-50亿元，同比翻3倍以上，考虑到规模效应下费用率下降，我们预计2023年公司储能业务将贡献利润8亿元左右，超市场预期。 ◼ 其他业务稳步发展： 1）公司光伏逆变器重新聚焦中小功率组串式逆变器，加快海外渠道建设，我们预计公司光伏逆变器业务2023年有望实现40-50%增长；2）充电桩市场高增，直接受益于新能源汽车行业的高速发展，我们预计公司充电桩业务2023年将保持50%以上增长；3）UPS业务基本盘稳健，我们预计2023年将保持10%+增长。整体来看，我们预计2023年公司光伏逆变器+充电桩+UPS业务合计贡献利润5亿元左右。 ◼ 盈利预测与投资评级：基于公司储能业务新签订单量超预期，我们上调2022-2024年公司盈利预测