棉花：世界市场与贸易 2022

December2022 UnitedStatesDepartmentofAgricultureForeignAgriculturalService Cotton:WorldMarketsandTrade 2022/23GlobalConsumptionProjectedDownAgain PakistanIndiaChinaOther 140 120 MillionBales 100 80 60 40 20 0 2018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23 Globalcottonconsumptionisprojecteddown3.3millionbalesthismonthto111.7million.Decliningsupplies,lowerprofitmarginsforspinningmills,fallingyarnordersfromfabricandapparelcompanies,andhigherinflationlevelsareallpressuringconsumption. Significantchallengesforthethreelargestconsumers–China,India,andPakistan–areexpectedtolowerglobalconsumptionsignificantlybelowtheprevious2years.India’sconsumptionisprojecteddown1.0millionbalesthismonthto23.0million,fallingmorethan2.0millionfromthepreviousyearandthelargestyear-over-yeardeclineforallcottonconsumers.Significantlylowerbeginningstocks,fallingexportsoftextiles(yarnandfabric)andcottonproducts,andlesscompetitiveyarnexportpricesarepressuringconsumptionprospects.HigherspotpricesforcottonrelativetoothermajorspinnershaveerodedIndia’sstatureasacompetitiveyarnexportertoChina.Seelastmonth’seditiontitledChina’sSluggishYarnImportsSignalSlowingGlobalCottonConsumptionformoreinformation. IndiaCottonPriceMinusChinaCottonPrice 60 40 centsperpound 20 0 -20 -40 Jul-19 Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22 Nov-22 -60 China’sconsumptionisalsoprojecteddown1.0millionbalesthismonthto35.5million,marginallyabovethepreviousyearbutmorethan5.0millionbelow2yearsprior.Astheworld’slargestcotton ApprovedbytheWorldAgriculturalOutlookBoard/USDA Foremailsubscription,clickheretoregister:https://public.govdelivery.com/accounts/USDAFAS/subscriber/new consumerandimporterofcottonyarn,China’ssupplyandusesituationisnormallyindicativeoftheoveralldirectionandvitalityoftheglobalcottonsupplychain. OngoingCOVID-19lockdowns,slowingdomesticpurchasesofapparel,decliningyarnpricesrelativetocottonlint,andsignificantlylowercottonproductexportshavedrasticallyslowedChina’sconsumptionoverthepast2years.TheUnitedStates,theworld’slargestimporterofcottonproducts,showedlowerimportsofproductsfromChinabymorethan40percentduringthefirst3monthsofthemarketingyear(August–October2022). ChineseCottonYarnPriceMinusCottonLintPrice 70 65 centsperpound 60 55 50 45 40 35 Jul-19 Sep-19Nov-19Jan-20Mar-20May-20Jul-20Sep-20Nov-20Jan-21Mar-21May-21Jul-21Sep-21Nov-21Jan-22Mar-22May-22Jul-22Sep-22 Nov-22 30 Pakistan’sconsumptionisestimatedatitslowestlevelinover20years,forecastdown700,000balesthismonthto9.0million,droppingnearly2.0millionfromthepreviousyearmostlybecauseoflowersupplies.Pakistan’sproductionisprojectedatthelowestlevelinnearly40yearsat3.7millionbales.Althoughimportsareprojectedabovethepreviousyearat5.0millionbales,millsinPakistanhavehadissueswiththestrongerU.S.dollar,openingLettersofCredit,andfinalizingoldercontractswhichwerenegotiatedatsignificantlyhigherpricesearlierthisyear. LowerPakistanSuppliesPressureConsumption 14 12 MillionBales 10 8 6 4 2 0 2018/192019/202020/212021/222022/23 BeginningStocksProductionImports Globalcottonconsumptionisnowprojectedatitssecond-lowestlevelinnearlyadecade.Ifrealized,thiswouldreduceannualcottonusebynearly6.0millionbalesbelowthepreviousyearandmorethan 11.4millionbelow2yearsprior. 2022/23Outlook Globalproductionisdown700,000balesfromthepreviousmonthto115.7million,largelyowingtolowerproductioninPakistan.ThisisthefourthconsecutivemonththatPakistanproductionhasfallenandissupportedbyweakarrivalsdata.Globalstocksareforecastupwithconsumptionprojecteddownmorethan3.0millionbales.Thisistheseventhconsecutivemonthlydeclineforglobalconsumption. Globaltradeisdownroughly1.0millionbales,ledbyadeclineinChina,andisnowforecastlowercomparedwiththepreviousyear. TheU.S.balancesheetshowshigherproductionandendingstocksrelativetothepreviousmonth.Exportsandconsumptionareforecastdownthismonth,andshipmentsareprojectedatthelowestlevelin7years.TheprojectedU.S.season-averagefarmpriceisunchangedat85centsperpound. Forcurrentpricesreceivedbyfarmersclickhere:NASSfarmprice GlobalCottonPrices WeeklyCottonPrices A-IndexU.S.ChinaIndiaBrazil 160 140 centsperpound 120 100 80 60 40 Notes:A-Indexistheaverageofthefivecheapestquotations(qualitybeingMiddling11/8)forCostandFreight(CFR)ataFarEasternPort(moreinformationhere);U.S.isthesimpleaverageofspotquotationsreportedbytheAgriculturalMarketingService(moreinformationhere);ChinaisthereportedChinaCottonPriceIndex(i.e. CCIndex3128B)andreflectsthenationalweightedaverageofcotton(3128Bgrade)deliveredtomorethan200enterprisesinChina;IndiaistheShankar-6(grade29-3.8-76)spotpricereportedhere;BrazilisthedeliveredpriceinSãoPaulocity(gradestrictlowmiddling). ChangesSinceNovemberWASDE(centsperpound) A-Index U.S. China India Brazil 7-Nov 104.1 87.3 96.8 102.2 98.0 7-Dec 102.8 80.8 96.8 103.2 101.5 Change -1.3 -6.5 0.1 1.0 3.5 Globalcottonpricesweremostlyunchangedsincelastmonth’sWASDEoutsidetheUnitedStates.LowerpricesontheIntercontinentalExchange(ICE)pressuredU.S.spotpricesowingpartlyto