《2022年亚洲发展展望》（ADO）补编：全球阴霾笼罩亚洲前景（英）

ASIANDEVELOPMENTOUTLOOK DECEMBER2022 SUPPLEMENT HIGHLIGHTS ThreemainheadwindscontinuetohamperrecoveryindevelopingAsia:recurrentlockdownsinthePeople’sRepublicofChina,theRussianinvasionofUkraine,andslowingglobalgrowth.Growthforecastsfortheregionarereviseddownfrom4.3%to4.2%in2022andfrom4.9%to4.6%in2023. EastAsia’sgrowthforecastsarereviseddownto2.9%in2022—duetothemobilityrestrictionsmentionedaboveplusdeepcontractioninHongKong,China—anddownto4.0%in2023. TheSouthAsianforecastfor2022ismaintainedat6.5%butreviseddownmarginallyfor2023from6.5%to6.3%followingaslowdowninBangladeshandfloodinginPakistan. The2022forecastforSoutheastAsiaisupgradedfrom5.1%to5.5%onrobustconsumptionandtourismrecoveryinMalaysia,thePhilippines,Thailand,andVietNam.The2023forecastisreviseddownto4.7%asglobaldemandweakens. GrowthprospectsintheCaucasusandCentralAsiaareadjustedupfrom3.9%to4.8%in2022asspilloverfromtheRussianinvasionofUkrainehasbeenmorebenignthanexpected.ThegrowthforecastforthePacificin2022isalsorevisedup,from4.7%to5.3%onastrongtourismreboundinFiji. Regionalinflationforecastsarereviseddownslightlyfor2022from4.5%to4.4%butupgradedfor2023from4.0%to4.2%.Evenwithoutlookdeterioration, developingAsiawillgrowmorethanotherregionsandsufferlessinflationthanmost. Multiplerisksaboundasthethreemainheadwindscouldworsen,alongwithgeopoliticalrisksandclimatechange. GLOBALGLOOMDIMSASIANPROSPECTS Recentdevelopments GlobalandregionaldevelopmentssinceSeptemberhavebeenroughlyinlinewithpessimisticexpectationslaidoutthatmonthintheAsianDevelopmentOutlook2022Update. Theworldeconomychuggedalonginthethirdquarter(Q3)ofthisyearbutisnowsettoslowmarkedly,weigheddownbyweakeningintheUnitedStates,euroarea,andPeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC).PersistentlyelevatedinflationintheUSledtheFederalReservetoraiseitspolicyrateinNovemberby75basispoints,thefourthconsecutivehikeofthatmagnitude.Despitearesilientlabormarket,investmentprospectsandconsumerconfidenceworsened,suggestingthattheQ3reboundtoseasonallyadjustedannualizedgrowthof2.6%willbeshort-lived. Similarlyintheeuroarea,GDPgrowthoutperformedexpectationsinQ3,butannualinflationspikedfurtherto10.6%inOctober.LeadingindicatorsareconsistentwithcontinueddecelerationdeepenedbyanenergycrisisandaggressivepolicyratehikesbytheEuropeanCentralBank.EconomicactivityinthePRCremainshamperedby TheAsianDevelopmentBankRegionalEconomicOutlookTaskForceledthepreparationofarevisedoutlookforthisAsianDevelopmentOutlookSupplement.ThetaskforceischairedbytheEconomicResearchandRegionalCooperationDepartmentandincludesrepresentativesoftheCentralandWestAsiaDepartment,EastAsiaDepartment,PacificDepartment,South AsiaDepartment,andSoutheastAsiaDepartment.ThedataandanalysisinthisSupplementaregenerallybasedoninformationavailableto30November2022. sporadiccoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)outbreaks,zero-COVIDrestrictions,andcontinuedweaknessinthepropertymarket.Growthpickedupto3.9%yearonyearinQ3,astheOmicronwavefaded,butisnowlosingsteam.TheofficialPRCpurchasingmanagers’index(PMI)fellto49.4inNovember,belowthethresholdof50separatingexpectedimprovementfromdeterioration,asconditionsworsenedacrossallsectorsexceptconstruction. Addingtoaconsumptionshiftpostpandemicfromgoodstoservices,slowdownsintheworld’slargesteconomiesarefurtherdepressingdemandformanufacturedgoodsfromdevelopingAsia.ExportsofgoodsfromthePRCdeclinedby10.4%betweenJulytoOctober.Intherestoftheregion,exportsdroppedinJulybymorethan7%fromtheirpeakinJuneandstabilizedaroundthatlevelinAugust.Lowerexportorderspointtocontinuedweaknessgoingforward.Amongthe11economiesforwhichdataonnewexportordersareavailable,10recordedreadingsbelow50inNovember,indicatingdeclinesfromthepreviousmonth(Figure1).Indiawastheonlyexception.Readingsof48.3fortheRepublicofKorea(ROK)and35.1forTaipei,Chinaareparticularlyindicativeoftheworseningexternalenvironment, astheseeconomiesaretypicallybellwethersforinternationaltradeconditions.PMIreadingsarealsoconsistentwithsofteningeconomicactivityinmosteconomies. EasingpandemicconditionsandcontainmentmeasureshaveunderpinnedhealthydomesticdemandinmostofdevelopingAsiathisyear.Mobilityimprovedalmosteverywherefromearlierintheyear(Figure2).Reflectingthis,retailsalesgrowthyearonyearwasstronglypositivefromMaytoSeptemberinIndonesia,Malaysia,theROK,Singapore,Thailand,andVietNam(Figure3).Inthesameperiod,retailsalesincreasedonlyslightlyinthePRC,weigheddownbylockdownsinAprilandMay,anddeclinedinHongKong,China,wherestrictpandemiccurbsstartedtorelaxgraduallyonlyinSeptember. Regionalinflationhavingrisenfurtherinthesecondhalfof2022,mayhavealreadypeakedinmanyeconomies.Globaloil,gas,andfoodpriceshavecomedownfromtheirhighsearlierthisyear,thoughtheyremainmoreelevatedthanbeforethe RussianinvasionofUkraine.HeadlineinflationindevelopingAsiareached5.6%inSeptember,upfrom3.0%atthestartoftheyear,thendeclinedto5.2%inOctober(Figure4).For22ofthe28economiesindevelopingAsiawithmonthlyinflationdata,inflationhasnowcomedownfrompeaksreachedearlierintheyear,includinginthelargesteconomies:thePRC,India,Indonesia, theRepublicofKorea,andTaipei,China(