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《2022年亚洲发展展望》（ADO）补编：全球阴霾笼罩亚洲前景（英）

公用事业2022-12-01亚开行笑***

AI智能总结

Developing Asia's growth forecasts have been revised down from 4.3% to 4.2% in 2022 and from 4.9% to 4.6% in 2023 due to three main headwinds: recurrent lockdowns in China, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and slowing global growth. East Asia's growth forecasts are revised down to 2.9% in 2022 due to mobility restrictions and a deep contraction in Hong Kong, China, and down to 4.0% in 2023. South Asia's forecast for 2022 is maintained at 6.5% but revised down marginally for 2023 from 6.5% to 6.3% following a slowdown in Bangladesh and flooding in Pakistan. Southeast Asia's 2022 forecast is upgraded from 5.1% to 5.5% on robust consumption and tourism recovery in Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam, but the 2023 forecast is revised down to 4.7% as global demand weakens. Growth prospects in the Caucasus and Central Asia are adjusted up from 3.9% to 4.8% in 2022 as spillover from the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been more benign than expected. The growth forecast for the Pacific in 2022 is also revised up, from 4.7% to 5.3% on a strong tourism rebound in Fiji. Regional inflation forecasts are revised down slightly for 2022 from 4.5% to 4.4% but upgraded for 2023 from 4.0% to 4.2%. Despite this, developing Asia will grow more than other regions and suffer less inflation than most. However, multiple risks abound as the three main headwinds could worsen, along with geopolitical risks and climate change.

ASIANDEVELOPMENTOUTLOOK DECEMBER2022 SUPPLEMENT HIGHLIGHTS ThreemainheadwindscontinuetohamperrecoveryindevelopingAsia:recurrentlockdownsinthePeople’sRepublicofChina,theRussianinvasionofUkraine,andslowingglobalgrowth.Growthforecastsfortheregionarereviseddownfrom4.3%to4.2%in2022andfrom4.9%to4.6%in2023. EastAsia’sgrowthforecastsarereviseddownto2.9%in2022—duetothemobilityrestrictionsmentionedaboveplusdeepcontractioninHongKong,China—anddownto4.0%in2023. TheSouthAsianforecastfor2022ismaintainedat6.5%butreviseddownmarginallyfor2023from6.5%to6.3%followingaslowdowninBangladeshandfloodinginPakistan. The2022forecastforSoutheastAsiaisupgradedfrom5.1%to5.5%onrobustconsumptionandtourismrecoveryinMalaysia,thePhilippines,Thailand,andVietNam.The2023forecastisreviseddownto4.7%asglobaldemandweakens. GrowthprospectsintheCaucasusandCentralAsiaareadjustedupfrom3.9%to4.8%in2022asspilloverfromtheRussianinvasionofUkrainehasbeenmorebenignthanexpected.ThegrowthforecastforthePacificin2022isalsorevisedup,from4.7%to5.3%onastrongtourismreboundinFiji. Regionalinflationforecastsarereviseddownslightlyfor2022from4.5%to4.4%butupgradedfor2023from4.0%to4.2%.Evenwithoutlookdeterioration, developingAsiawillgrowmorethanotherregionsandsufferlessinflationthanmost. Multiplerisksaboundasthethreemainheadwindscouldworsen,alongwithgeopoliticalrisksandclimatechange. GLOBALGLOOMDIMSASIANPROSPECTS Recentdevelopments GlobalandregionaldevelopmentssinceSeptemberhavebeenroughlyinlinewithpessimisticexpectationslaidoutthatmonthintheAsianDevelopmentOutlook2022Update. Theworldeconomychuggedalonginthethirdquarter(Q3)ofthisyearbutisnowsettoslowmarkedly,weigheddownbyweakeningintheUnitedStates,euroarea,andPeople’sRepublicofChina(PRC).PersistentlyelevatedinflationintheUSledtheFederalReservetoraiseitspolicyrateinNovemberby75basispoints,thefourthconsecutivehikeofthatmagnitude.Despitearesilientlabormarket,investmentprospectsandconsumerconfidenceworsened,suggestingthattheQ3reboundtoseasonallyadjustedannualizedgrowthof2.6%willbeshort-lived. Similarlyintheeuroarea,GDPgrowthoutperformedexpectationsinQ3,butannualinflationspikedfurtherto10.6%inOctober.LeadingindicatorsareconsistentwithcontinueddecelerationdeepenedbyanenergycrisisandaggressivepolicyratehikesbytheEuropeanCentralBank.EconomicactivityinthePRCremainshamperedby TheAsianDevelopmentBankRegionalEconomicOutlookTaskForceledthepreparationofarevisedoutlookforthisAsianDevelopmentOutlookSupplement.ThetaskforceischairedbytheEconomicResearchandRegionalCooperationDepartmentandincludesrepresentativesoftheCentralandWestAsiaDepartment,EastAsiaDepartment,PacificDepartment,South AsiaDepartment,andSoutheastAsiaDepartment.ThedataandanalysisinthisSupplementaregenerallybasedoninformationavailableto30November2022. sporadiccoronavirusdisease(COVID-19)outbreaks,zero-COVIDrestrictions,andcontinuedweaknessinthepropertymarket.Growthpickedupto3.9%yearonyearinQ3,astheOmicronwavefaded,butisnowlosingsteam.TheofficialPRCpurchasingmanagers’index(PMI)fellto49.4inNovember,belowthethresholdof50separatingexpectedimprovementfromdeterioration,asconditionsworsenedacrossallsectorsexceptconstruction. Addingtoaconsumptionshiftpostpandemicfromgoodstoservices,slowdownsintheworld’slargesteconomiesarefurtherdepressingdemandformanufacturedgoodsfromdevelopingAsia.ExportsofgoodsfromthePRCdeclinedby10.4%betweenJulytoOctober.Intherestoftheregion,exportsdroppedinJulybymorethan7%fromtheirpeakinJuneandstabilizedaroundthatlevelinAugust.Lowerexportorderspointtocontinuedweaknessgoingforward.Amongthe11economiesforwhichdataonnewexportordersareavailable,10recordedreadingsbelow50inNovember,indicatingdeclinesfromthepreviousmonth(Figure1).Indiawastheonlyexception.Readingsof48.3fortheRepublicofKorea(ROK)and35.1forTaipei,Chinaareparticularlyindicativeoftheworseningexternalenvironment, astheseeconomiesaretypicallybellwethersforinternationaltradeconditions.PMIreadingsarealsoconsistentwithsofteningeconomicactivityinmosteconomies. EasingpandemicconditionsandcontainmentmeasureshaveunderpinnedhealthydomesticdemandinmostofdevelopingAsiathisyear.Mobilityimprovedalmosteverywherefromearlierintheyear(Figure2).Reflectingthis,retailsalesgrowthyearonyearwasstronglypositivefromMaytoSeptemberinIndonesia,Malaysia,theROK,Singapore,Thailand,andVietNam(Figure3).Inthesameperiod,retailsalesincreasedonlyslightlyinthePRC,weigheddownbylockdownsinAprilandMay,anddeclinedinHongKong,China,wherestrictpandemiccurbsstartedtorelaxgraduallyonlyinSeptember. Regionalinflationhavingrisenfurtherinthesecondhalfof2022,mayhavealreadypeakedinmanyeconomies.Globaloil,gas,andfoodpriceshavecomedownfromtheirhighsearlierthisyear,thoughtheyremainmoreelevatedthanbeforethe RussianinvasionofUkraine.HeadlineinflationindevelopingAsiareached5.6%inSeptember,upfrom3.0%atthestartoftheyear,thendeclinedto5.2%inOctober(Figure4).For22ofthe28economiesindevelopingAsiawithmonthlyinflationdata,inflationhasnowcomedownfrompeaksreachedearlierintheyear,includinginthelargesteconomies:thePRC,India,Indonesia, theRepublicofKorea,andTaipei,China(

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