预计2022年全球贸易额达到创纪录32万亿美元

UNITEDNATIONS UNCTAD GL易BAL TRADE UPDATE DECEMBER2022 Followingarecordyear,globaltradegrowthnowturnsnegative Globaltradeisset toreachalmostUSS32trillionfor2022,butitsgrowth Demandfor foreigngoodsprovedresilientthroughout2022, TradeofEastAsianeconomies hasshownmore resilience,South- Geopoliticalfrictions, persistinginflation, andlowerglobal demandareexpected hasturnednegative withtradevolumes Southtradehas tonegativelyaffect duringthesecond halfof2022. increasingby3percent. laggedduringQ3 2022 globaltradeduring2023. Inflationhitsglobaltrade Consumersandmanufacturerstofacerisingpricesforimportedproducts Priceindexoftradedgoods(Jan2021=100) 190 180 PRIMARY 170 products 160 150 140 130 INTERMEDIATE 120inputs 110CONSUMER 100 JanAprJulOctJanAprJul20212022 goods Souree:UNCTADcaiculationsbegedonnaionalstatisticsofthaUnitedStatesofAmericaandtheEuropeanUhnicn. NiPricaalatedmunitasftradgoshH6ddedinePachepriceind @UNCTAD @UNCTADtrade GLOBALTRADEUPDATE Globaltradetrendsandnowcast GlobaltradeissettoreacharecordlevelofaboutUSs32trillionfor2022.Tradeinqoodsisexpectedtototalalmost US$25trillion(anincreaseofabout10percentfrom2021).TradeinservicesisexpectedtototalalmostUS$7trillion (anincreaseofabout15percentfrom2021).Thoserecordlevelsarelargelyduetorobustgrowthinthefirsthalf of2022.Conversely,tradegrowthhasbeensubduedduringthesecondhalfoftheyear.DuringQ32022,tradein goodsdeclinedbyaboutonepercentrelativetoQ22022.Tradeinservicesincreasedbyabout1.3percentduring thesameperiod.TheUNCTADnowcastindicatesthatthevalueofglobaltradewilldecreaseinQ42022bothfor goodsandforservices. Globaltradetrends Noncast 30% 20% Prelirinery Senvici AnnualGrowtt 10% Boods AanualGrowth Sarvices 0% QuaterlyGrowth Goode -10% 20% 1030203 2019202020212022 QuaterlyGrowth Sorce:UNCTADcaleuationsbosedonnationalstatistics. Ncee:Quarterlygrowthisfhequarterovarquartergrowthrateofseasonalyadjustedvalues.Annualgrothreferstofhelastfourquarters FiguresforQ32022arepreliminary,Q42022isanowrast Whilethevalueofintermationalmerchandisetradehasstabilizedduringthesecondhalfof2022,thevolumeoftrade increasedduringQ32022andisexpectedtocontinueincreasingduringQ4.Positivegrowthinthevolumeofinternational tradeindicatesresilienceofglobaldemand. Tradeingoods,valuesandvolumeindexes Index012019=100 150Nowcast Peiriary ane 130 110 T 0203I0304Q1Q2IQ304103 2019202020212022 Source:UNCTADStat. GLOBALTRADEUPDATE Summaryandoutlook Deterioratingeconomicconditionsandrisinguncertaintieshaveresultedinatradeslow-downduringthesecondhalfof 2022.However,thedeclineinglobaltradehasbeennominal,asthevolumeoftradecontinuedtoincreasethroughout 2022,asignalofresilientglobaldemand.Partofthedeclineinthevalueofinternationaltradeduringthesecondhalfof 2022isduetoadecreaseinthepricesofprimaryproducts,especiallyenergy.Bycontrast,thepricesofinternationaly tradedintermediateinputsandconsumergoodshavecontinuedtoincreaseduringthesameperiod,raisingadditional slowdownisexpectedtoworsenfor2023.Whiletheoutlookforglobaltraderemainsuncertain,negativefactorsappear tooutweighpositivetrends. Negativefactors: Lowereconomicgrowth Economicgrowthforecastsfor2023arebeingreviseddownwardsduetohighenergyprices,risinginterestrates, Sustainedinflationinmanyeconomies,andnegativeglobaleconomicspilloversfromthewarinUkraine Highpricesoftradedgoods Persistentlyhighenergypricesandthecontinuedriseinthepricesofintermediateinputsandconsumersgoodsare expectedtodampendemandforimportsandtoleadtoadeclineinthevolumeofinternationaltrade. Concernsofdebtsustainability Therecordlevelsofglobaldebtandtheincreaseininterestratesposesignificantconcernsfordebtsustainability.The Positivefactors: Improvementsinthelogisticsofglobaltrade PortsandshippingcompanieshavenowadjustedtothechalengesbroughtbytheCovid-19pandemic.Newshipsare averages,buttheirtrendisdownwards. Tradeagreementscomingintofruition RecentysignedagreementssuchastheRegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnershipandtheAfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea,aswellasanumberofsmallertradeagreements,shouldcometofruitionandprovidesome momentumforinternationaltrade Otherfactorsaffectinginternationaltradepatterns: Reshapingofglobalsupplychains Risksanduncertaintiesremainhighforglobalsupplychainoperations.Riskmitigationstrategies,suchasthe diversificationofsuppliers,reshoring,nearshoringandfriend-shoring,willikelyaffectinternationaltradepatternsin thecomingyear. Transitiontowardsagreenerglobaleconomy Theeffortstowardsagreenerglobaleconomyareexpectedtospurdemandforenvironmentalysustainableproducts, whilereducingthedemandforgoodswithhighcarboncontentandforfossilfuelsenergy.Thisshiftwillreflectinto intemationaltradepatterns. ) GLOBALTRADEUPDATE Tradetrendsinthemajoreconomies Theimportandexporttrendsofsomeoftheworld'smajortradingeconomiesfurtherillustratethepattermsoftradegrowth duringQ32022.ExceptfortheRussianFederation,thetradeingoodsforallmajoreconomieswaswellabovelevelsofone Dataonservicesisonlyavailablewithalagofonequarter.InQ22022,thetradeinservicesformostmajoreconomieswas higherthaninQ22021.Quarter-over-q