贸发会议报告：2022年第一季度全球贸易总额达到创纪录的7.7万亿美元

UNITEDNATIONS UNCTAD GL易BAL TRADE UPDATE July2022 Inflationandrisingcommoditypricesdriveglobaltrade Globaltradegrowth Thevalueofglobal Theconflictin Tighteningpolicies deceleratedinQ1 2022,stllincreasing tradeisfueledby risingcommodity Ukraineisstartingtoinfluence frictionsareexpected byaboutUSs1tillion prices;tradevolumes internationaltrade, tonegativelyaffect relativetothesamehaveincreasedtoalargelythroughglobaltradeduring periodof2021.muchlowerextent.increasesinprices.2022. Risingpricesinflateinternationaltrade Merchandisetradeinvaluesandvolumes(Index2019=100) Index2019-100Nowcast 150 Peliminary Values 130 110 Volumes Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2 20182019202020212022 Sowce:UNCTADStat. @UNCTAD @UNCTADtrade ()GLOBALTRADEUPDATE Globaltradetrendsandnowcast ThevalueofqlobaltradeincreasedduringQ12022,althoughitsgrowthcontinuedtodecelerate.Overall,thevalueof globaltradereachedarecordlevelofaboutUSS7.7trillioninQ12022,anincreaseofaboutUSs1trillionrelativetoQ1 2021,andofaboutUSs250millionrelativetoQ42021. trllion(anincreaseofabout25percentrelativetoQ12021,andanincreaseofabout3.6percentrelativetoQ42021). TradeinservicestotaledaboutUSs1.6trillion(anincreaseofabout22percentrelativetoQ12021,andanincreaseof about1.7percentrelativetoQ42021).TradegrowthisexpectedtoremainpositivebutcontinuestoslowduringQ22022. ServicesIAnnual 1Quartorly Nowcast 30% GoodsIGrowh:Groth (rightaxis)Preliminary 20% 5 10%4 3 0% -10% -20% Q1Q2Q304Q1Q2Q3Q4Q2Q3Q4 20182019202020212022 Sowce;UNCTADcalculationsbasedonnefionalstatistics NoQuarerygrowhithequaerorquarergrothraefsasonalyadjstedalues.Amualgrothrelerstothelastfourquaer E:oueslZzozLouuadaR(zozpoosaunby Mostofthemerchandisetradegrowthduringthelastyearwasnominal.InQ12022thevalueoftradewasabout30per centhigherthanthepre-pandemiclevelsof2019.Bycontrast,tradevolumesincreasedtoamuchlowerextent(about6 percent.Thedivergencebetweenvaluesandvolumesisduetorisingcommodityprices,especiallyforenergyproducts, andgeneralinflation. ()GLOBALTRADEUPDATE Globaltradeoutlook Thepositivetrendforinternationaltrademaysooncometoanend.Risinginterestratesandthewindingdownofeconomic stimuluspackageswillikelyhaveanegativeimpactontradevolumesfortherestof2022.Volatilityincommodityprices andgeopoliticalfactorswillalsocontinuetomaketradedevelopmentsuncertain.Overall,theevolutionofworldtradefor theremainderof2022islikelytobeaffectedbythefollowingfactors: Slowerthanexpectedeconomicgrowth Economicgrowthforecastsfor2022arebeingreviseddownwardsduetorisinginterestrates,inflationarypressures inmanyeconomies,andnegativeglobaleconomicspilloversfromtheconflictinUkraine.Itislikelythatglobaltrade willreflectthesemacroeconomictrends,withadecreaseintradegrowth. EffectoftheconflictinUkraine TheconflictinUkraineisputtingfurtherupwardpressureontheinternationalpricesofenergyandprimarycommodities. wouldlikelyresultinhighertradevalues,andmarginallylowertradevolumes. Continuingchallengesforglobalsupplychains Risksanduncertaintiesremainhighforglobalsupplychainoperations.COVD-19mitigationmeasuresmaycontinue tocreatesupplydisruptionsandglobaleconomicuncertaintiesarelikelytomakeinvestmentsriskierduring2022 Moreover,long-termtrendstoshortensupplychainsandtodiversifysuppliersmaystarttoinfluenceinternational tradein2022. Tradeagreementsandregionalizationtrends Tradeagreementsthathaverecentyenteredintoforce(e-g.theRegionalComprehensiveEconomicPartnershipand theAfricanContinentalFreeTradeArea)shouldprovideadditionalmomentumforintra-regionaltrade.Ontheother andgeopoliticalfrictions. Transitiontowardsagreenerglobaleconomy during2022.Thiswouldlargelydependontheimplementationofgovernmentpoliciesregulatingthetradeofcarbon productsrequiredtosupportgreenerenergyalternatives Risingconcemsfordebtsustainability Giventherecordlevelsofglobaldebt,concernsofdebtsustainabilityarelikelytointensifyinthecomingquartersdue tomountinginflationarypressuresandassociatedinterestratehikes.Theongoingtighteningoffinancialconditions isexpectedtoheightenpressureonthemosthighlyindebtedgovermments,amplifyingvulnerabilitiesandnegatively affectinginvestmentsandintermationaltradefiows. a) GLOBALTRADEUPDATE SIT Tradetrendsinthemajoreconomies Theimportandexporttrendsofsomeoftheworld'smajortradingeconomiesfurtherillustratethepattermsoftradegrowth duringQ12022,Overall,tradeingoodsinallmajoreconomieswaswellabovethepre-pandemiclevelsof2019,forboth importsandexports.Negativequarter-over-quarterratesrevealthatimporttrendsreversedforBrazilandtheRussian FederationduringQ12022.ExportgrowthinthisperiodremainedstrongforBrazilandSouthAfrica. Dataonservicesisreportedwithalagofonequarter.InQ42021,tradeinservicesofmostmajoreconomieswassti substantiallylowerthanthepre-pandemicaveragesof2019.However,asshownbyquarter-over-quarterrates,trade importstotheEuropeanUnion. Importsandexportsofmajortradingeconomies GOODS [28 Q12022RELATIVETO2019AVERAGEQ12022RELATIVETO042021 IMPORTSEXPORTSIMPORTSEXPORTS ↑30%↑43%↓3%↑15% Crina135%49%↑2%+4% India↑37%34%14%17% ueder ↑20% ↑8% ↑6% ↑2% RepublicofKorea ↑39%