有色金属工业硅周报：终端需求未有起色，硅价延续弱势

2012669 F3074367Z0015479 021-80401745 F03093505Z0017197 0755-82723054 F03088415 Z0016667 20221204 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 1 123 12 2 1100 210170 2000 113000 900 97170 4 2 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 3 2022 2020 2019 2021 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2.1 /2022/11/252022/12/2 19,833 19,505 -328 -1.7% 553# 18,700 18,400 -300 -1.6% 441# 20,500 19,900 -600 -2.9% 3303# 20,900 20400 -500 -2.4% 421# 21,000 20,700 -300 -1.4% 2202# 30,000 30,000 0 0.0% 553# 20,000 19,400 -600 -3.0% 553# 18,600 18,300 -300 -1.6% 441# 20,150 19,700 -450 -2.2% 3303# 20,750 20,250 -500 -2.4% 421# 20,650 20,400 -250 -1.2% 2202# 30,000 30,000 0 0.0% 553# 20,100 19,500 -600 -3.0% 441# 20,650 20,100 -550 -2.7% 3303# 20,900 20,400 -500 -2.4% 421# 21,200 20,900 -300 -1.4% /2022/11/252022/12/2 553# 2,600 2,580 -20 -0.8% 441# 2,820 2,790 -30 -1.1% 3303# 2,900 2,840 -60 -2.1% 421# 2,890 2,840 -50 -1.7% 2202# 3,040 4,180 1140 37.5% 4 2.2 :PMI 11PMI48%49.210PMI48.4%49.349 1222940122940 11000 10000: 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 0 :10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 (2000) (4000) (6000) (8000) (10000) Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 (12000) 1,000 800 600 400 200 Aug-22 0 ::: ::: ::: :: 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2022-072022-082022-092022-10 iFindWind5 2019W16 2019W24 2019W32 2019W40 2019W48 2020W4 2020W12 2020W20 2020W28 2020W36 2020W44 2020W52 2021W7 2021W15 2021W23 2021W31 2021W39 2021W47 2022W3 2022W11 2022W19 2022W27 2022W35 2.3 12 2 17673 105 12 2 10.28% 1.44 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 6 2.4 1030.0115%4%20221-1027019% 1226.252.07% 702122 49.72%103157 3494 7671 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 2022202120202019 1357911 80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 2022202120202019 W1W4W7W10W13W16W19W22W25W28W31W34W37W40W43W46W49 W52 7 2.5.1.1 122-5.87%1.31 1013.422%10%1-10143.623% 122DMC491001500 / 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2019W16 2019W24 2019W33 2019W41 2019W49 2020W5 2020W13 2020W21 2020W29 2020W37 2020W45 2020W53 2021W8 2021W16 2021W24 2021W32 2021W40 2021W48 2022W4 2022W12 2022W20 2022W28 2022W36 -10% 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 2022202120202019 8 2.5.1.2 1056869.43%1-1018.72% 10975823.22%1-1022.27% 1113 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 2019202020212022 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 2019202020212022 0 123456789101112 0 1357911 Wind9 1-10 60.25 2022 2021 2020 2019 10 2.5.2.1 12 2 10 51% 12 2 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 2019W11 2019W20 2019W29 2019W38 2019W47 2020W04 2020W13 2020W22 8.04 2020W31 2020W40 12970 / 2020W49 2021W05 2021W14 2021W23 79.02% 2021W32 2021W41 2021W50 2022W07 91% 2022W16 2022W25 11 86.8% 100000 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2022W34 10 2.5.2.2 10 5.64GW 50.8%1-10 58.2GW 2021 54.88GW 2022 0.01GW 7000 2019 2020 2021 2022 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 99% 108GW115GW Wind11 2.5.3.1 12251%62% 91011 10SMMPMI46.8%11SMMPMI41.2%18.7 SMM% 80 70 60 50 SMMPMI PMIPMI 80 70 60 50 30000 25000 / ADC12- A356- 40 30 20 2020-10-162021-10-162022-10-16 40 30 20 2018-11-012020-03-012021-07-01 20000 15000 2021-05-132022-05-13 SMM12 2.5.3.211 202210 2111%9 1% 1-7 8-16 17-23 24-31 1-23 20 34667 60217 58509 99926 51921 64309 21 41821 47094 53298 78059 47377 55295 22 30907 52993 52885 105169 46238 61446 21 21% -22% -9% -22% -9% -14% 22 -26% 13% -1% 35% -2% 11% 9 -20% 15% -16% -8% -6% -1% 10% 1110 10 11% 1-6 7-13 14-20 21-27 28-30 1-20 20 47937 62867 58029 70587 154715 56695 69738 21 39150 45269 48805 76674 129587 44671 60630 22 35590 39652 52485 42925 21 -18% -28% -16% 9% -16% -21% -13% 22 -9% -12% 8% -4% 10 15% -20% -1% -5% 259.9250.5 11.1%6.9%1-10 2224.22197.5 7.9%4.6%9 0.50.3 13 10 2.5.4 202210 15.7% 3.8624.6%91087320221-10 55.3 202210 0.171028%20221-10 2.82863% 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2022202120202019 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 2022202120202019 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Wind14 2.6 122 900 97170 1100210170 2000113000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 W1W4W7W10W13W16W19W22W25W28W31W34W37W40W43W46W49W52 0 2022202120202019 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 W1W4W7W10W13W16W19W22W25W28W31W34W37W40W43W46W49W52 0 ++ 2022202120202019 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 2022202120202019 W1W4W7W10W13W16W19W22W25W28W31W34W37W40W43W46W49W52 15 / 131301-130514 8 518048 400-990-8826