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宇宙报告：超越想象

信息技术2022-11-28Arthur D. Little花***

AI智能总结

This report, titled "The Metaverse, beyond fantasy," explores the concept of the Metaverse and its potential impact on the economy. The Metaverse is described as the future version of the internet, a synthetic world that will allow for real economy activities. The report notes that while the Metaverse is not expected to fully develop for another decade, there are already proto-metaverses, such as virtual worlds like Roblox, that are being used for real economy activities today. The report concludes by discussing the technology readiness levels and use cases for the Metaverse.

REPORT *Syntheticworld,realeconomy 09/2022 TheMetaverse,beyondfantasy $ynth3t1(w0rld,r3al3(0n0my* 2 Wearenotonour screens;weareplayinghide-and-seekwithourfriendsinRoblox. —MayaandIseline,12years old,March2020,firstlockdown 3 BlueShift/REPORT002 TheMetaverse,beyondfantasy $ynth3t1(w0rld,r3al3(0n0my1 Authors Dr.AlbertMeige,DirectorofBlueShift,ArthurD.Little JuanAbascal,Consultant,ArthurD.LittleRickEagar,PartnerEmeritus,ArthurD.Little MichaelPapadopoulos,ChiefArchitect,ArthurD.Little Preface PrimaveraDeFilippi,ResearchFellowatBerkman Center,HarvardUniversityandCERSAatCentrenationaldelarecherchescientifique Artist-in-residence SamuelBabinet 1Syntheticworld,realeconomy ONTE N CONTENT-CONTENT-CT- 4 CONTENT- Executivesummary6 Preface8 Preamble10 1.TheMetaverse:Thefuture12 versionoftheInternet Interlude#1:Definingthe26 Metaverse 2.TheMetaverse:Notfor30 anotherdecade Interlude#2:Buildingthe48 Metaverse 3.Proto-metaverses:52 Virtualworldsforrealeconomy,today 4.Thewayforward68 Appendix#1:Experience74 continuumusecases Appendix#2:Technology90 readinesslevels BlueShift/REPORT002 Executivesummary Formany,theterm“Metaverse”firstenteredtheirconsciousnesswhenFacebookchangeditsnametoMetainlater2021.Atthetime,manypeopleassumeditwasmerelyapassingtrend,focusedongamersandyoungeraudiences,withlittleornorelevancetothemortheirbusi-nesses.However,keyplayersandconsultancieshavesincebeenfallingoverthemselvestodeclareitshugepotential,outdoingeachotherwiththescaleoftheirmarketforecasts.Inthisreportwehavesoughttopro-videarealisticpictureforbusinesses,focusinginparticularonthetech-nologiesthatarenecessarytorealizetheMetaverse. ItisimportanttorecognizethattheMetaverseisnotanewcon-cept.Thereasonitishighontheagendatodayisthatweareseeingarapidaccelerationofdevelopmentactivityandusageadoption. Thisaccelerationisdrivenbytheconvergenceofthreeindustries:gaming;collaborationandproductivitytools;andsocialmediaandnetworks.Theaccelerationisalsofueledbytheconfluenceofkeytrendsinuserbehaviors,software,andhardwaredevelopment. BusinessesshouldnotunderestimatetheimportanceandpotentialoftheMetaverse.Putsimply,itpromisestobethefutureversion oftheInternet,poweredwithnewpropertiesthatwillopenupnewusagesandbusinessmodels—inasimilarwaytohowthesmart-phonetransformedtheWeb. 6 Insteadofasingle,unifiedMetaverse,businessesfacetodayaworld ofunconnectedproto-metaverses. Forecastingthesizeofthemarketisdifficult.Ifkeyenablingtech-nologiesareincluded,suchasartificialintelligence(AI),InternetofThings(IoT),andblockchain,aswellastherequireddigitalinfra-structuredevelopment,thenthemarketcouldeasilyreachseveraltrillioneurosby2030.However,weadvisecaution,assomeofthismarketrepresentssubstitutionratherthangenuinelynewmarket BlueShift/REPORT002 space.Ourmoreconservativeviewsuggestsanincrementalmarket,excludinginfrastructure,ofperhaps€500billionby2030,witha30%-40%growth.Inanycase,howeveryoudefineit,theMetaversemarketisenormousandverydynamic. TohelpunderstandtheMetaverseanditscurrentdevelopmentstatus,wedevelopedasix-layerarchitecturalframework.Usingthisanalysis,weconcludedthat,incontrasttowhatmanyobserversaresaying,theunderlyingtechnologytoenabletheMetaverseasthecomplete“futureversionoftheInternet”won’tbefullyavailable foraroundadecade.Thisissomethingthatbusinessesneedtobeawareof. Insteadofasingle,unifiedMetaverse,businessesfacetodayaworldofunconnectedproto-metaverses.Thatsaid,therearestillhugeopportunities.Despitetheremainingtechnologicalchallenges,businessesneedtotakestepsnowtounderstandthecurrentmarketandpositionthemselvesforthefuture. Insummary,webelievethatamongallthetrendsandfactorscur-rentlyshapingtheMetaverse,threeofthemareespeciallycriticalbecausetheycombinehighpotentialimpactandhighuncertainty.Thesethreecriticalfactorsare: 1.Immersivity.Thedevelopmentofnewaugmentedreality/mixedreality(AR/MR)technologiesthateffectivelyovercomecurrenttechnicalobstacleswouldbeastrongacceleratorofnewusagesinthecomingyears.Inthesamewaythatsmart-phonesmadethedigitaleconomyshiftfromcomputerstomobiles,webelievethatuser-acceptableAR/MRglasseswoulddriveasimilarshiftfromscreentoMetaverse. 2.Interoperability.Interoperabilityisessentialtoprovideatrueseamlessexperiencetousersandtoallowthemtoshareresources,irrespectiveoftheiraccessplatform.However,duetodiverginginterestsbetweenvendors,users,andotherplayersinthevaluechain,thereisnoguaranteethatthiswillbeachieved. 3.Abundance.Inthephysicalworld,scarcitydrivesthevalueofassetsinamarketeconomy.Inthetraditionaldigitaleconomy,sinceadigitalfilecanbeduplicatedatnocost,scarcitywasreintroducedartificiallythroughsystemssuchasdigital rightsmanagement.Inavirtualworldwithblockchainandnon-fungibletokens(NFTs),aneweconomicparadigmof“abundance”mayappear,implyingamorefundamentalvalueshiftfromphysicalassetstoexperienceand,perhaps,status.Theextenttowhichthiswillhappen,anditsimplicationsforbusiness,areuncertain. 7 BlueShift/REPORT002 Preface byPrimaveraDeFilippi HavingdiscoveredtheInternetataveryyoungage,Ispentmostofmychildhoodexploringthenewopportunitiesofthisvirtualen

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