四季度疫情冲击可能小于二季度

䈭䰻䈱ᴶ੄ж享ރ䍙༦᱄਀ؗᚥᣡ䵨 http://www.cindasc.com 1 䇷࡮⹊ガᣛ઀ ᇅ㿸⹊ガ [Table_ReportType] щ从ᣛ઀ [Table_Author] 䀙䘆Ӥ ᇅ㿸俌ᑣ᷆ᐾ࠼ ᢝѐ㕌ਭφS1500521040002 㚊㌱⭫䈓φ010-83326858 䛤 ㇧φ xieyunliang@cindasc.com ؗ䗴䇷࡮㛗Գᴿ䲆ޢਮ CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD ्Ӣᐸ㾵ค॰䰯ᐸਙཝ㺍9ਭ䲘1ਭᾲ 䛤㕌φ100031 [Table_Title] ഑ᆙᓜ⯡᛻࠱ߨਥ㜳ቅӄӂᆙᓜ [Table_ReportDate] 2022ᒪ11ᴾ30ᰛ [Table_Summary] ¾ ⯡᛻ሯ䙖ѐ࡬Ქ≊ᓜⲺᢦࣞ䗯䱻ࢀᕧȾ11ᴾԳ⯡᛻ਃᕯф4ᴾ⴮ղθռ∊࠱ߨⲺࡦ䙖ѐᲥ≊ᓜ਍࡬4ᴾԳ㾷ቅȾ1ε⭕ӝૂ䴶≸ㄥ਍ࡦⲺ࠱ߨぁᓜуੂȾӂ㘻࠱ߨуੂⲺṯⓆᡌ൞ӄള޻⯡᛻ћṲ᤽ᮦуੂθഖ↚ሯᲥ≊ᓜⲺᢦࣞᴿᡶࢀᕧȾ2ε⢟⍷у⭻ሲ㠪ӚԎᰬ䰪└੄уੂθᓉᆎ〥13点ぁᓜҕужṭȾ↚ཌθԄ㔅⎄ࣞ㜳δ᯦䇘ঋ-ӝᡆ૷ᓉᆎεᶛⵁθ4ᴾૂ11ᴾⲺ㔅⎄ࣞ㜳ҕᴿ⵶᱄ᱴᐤᔸȾԄԭṲㄥⵁθ11ᴾ࡬䙖ѐ৕ᶆᯏ䍣䘑ԭṲᢟᕖъ࠰সԭṲ᭬㕟θԷѐ࡟⏜グ䰪㕟ቅθ᮪։䍺䠇ু࣑ࣖཝȾ൞ᐸ൰人ᵕᯯ䶘θ᮪։рθ޻⸣ᵕԷѐሯ⭕ӝ㔅㩛⍱ࣞ人ᵕ䏁ӄࠅᕧȾ ¾ ᵃࣗѐ㔝㔣᧘ᓋθ᭵ᆔ᭥᫇ᔰᆄѐ儎փ䘆㺂Ⱦ൞⯡᛻⌘਀䶘䙆↛ᢟཝⲺᖧଃсθ11ᴾ䶔࡬䙖ѐב䴶с㺂ু࣑䘑ж↛ࣖཝθ䶔࡬䙖ѐPMIӻ޻ᒪ儎ӄ4ᴾԳȾ1ε⯡᛻ᢦࣞ⣯ᆎθᵃࣗѐ㔝㔣᧘ᓋȾ䳅⵶⯡᛻⌘਀䶘Ⲻᢟཝθ11ᴾᵃࣗѐPMI㔝㔣с㺂θռс䲃ᑻᓜу਀4ᴾȾ਍⯡᛻ਃᕯᖧଃθ्ӢȽᒵᐔ൦䫷ᇘ䘆䠅с䐂θ䚉䐥䘆䗉Ƚ㡠グ䘆䗉ȽօᇵȽ但侤Ƚᮽौ։㛨ၧ҆ᅀ᧛䀜ᙝ㚐䳼ᙝ㺂ѐ୼ࣗ⍱ࣞ᤽ᮦഔ㩳Ⱦ2εะ⹶ᔰ䇴⴮ީ⍱ࣞ㔝㔣᭥᫇ᔰᆄѐⲺ儎Ქ≊≪ᒩȾ഑ᆙᓜԛᶛθ᯦ж᢯䠃⛯亯ⴤ䳼ѣᔶᐛθ൞どᣋ䍺⴮ީ᭵ᆔ᭥ᤷсθԛൕᵞᐛぁᔰᆄѰѱⲺะᔰ⴮ީ㺂ѐؓᤷ䖹ᘡ໔䮵θᔰᆄѐPMI㔪ᤷ䖹儎Ქ≊≪ᒩȾ3ε䶔࡬䙖ѐҕᆎ൞жӑ㔉ᶺᙝӤ⛯Ⱦжᱥ਍ⴀӄ⭫୼䍣⢟㢸Ⲻ䴶≸᣿ࣞθ㓵р⎾䍯⴮ީ㺂ѐؓᤷ⍱䏹Ⱦӂᱥ䠇㷃ѐሯᇔ։㔅⎄᭥ᤷ࣑ᓜ䖹ླȾ ¾ ど໔䮵᭵ᆔਇ࣑сθ഑ᆙᓜ⯡᛻࠱ߨਥ㜳ቅӄӂᆙᓜȾᙱ։ᶛⵁθ11ᴾPMI䠃⧦ӝ䴶ਂᕧṲቶθ⯡᛻ԃᱥᤌ13点㔅⎄Ⲻᴶѱ㾷ഖ㍖Ⱦռ⯡᛻ᖘࣵћጱсθ11ᴾ੾⧦Ҽф4ᴾуੂⲺᲥ≊ᓜ㺞⧦θެ㜂੄䠀᭴Ⲻ䗯䱻ؗਭҕٲᗍᡇԢީ⌞Ⱦжᱥθ੄㔣䱨⯡᧠᯳Վौᴿ࡟ӄᕧौ⯡᛻ሯ㔅⎄ⲺᢦࣞȾ人䇗12ᴾ⯡᛻ሯ࡬䙖ѐૂ䶔࡬䙖ѐᲥ≊ᓜⲺᢦࣞ䘎Ր㔝㔣ᆎ൞θռ䳅⵶⯡᛻䱨᧝ӂॷᶗՎौ᧠᯳㩳൦θᴪ㋴߼Ƚᴪᴿ᭾൦䱨᧝⯡᛻θᴿ࡟ӄࢀᕧ⯡᛻ሯ㔅⎄ᚘགྷⲺᢦࣞȾӂᱥѰ⺤ؓ੄㔣㔅⎄䘆㺂൞どᇐഔॽ䙐䚉θど໔䮵᭵ᆔᤷ㔣ਇ࣑Ⲻᗻ㾷ᙝࣖཝȾ⧦൞ะᔰȽ࡬䙖ѐૂᡵ൦ӝ亼ตⲺ࡟ᴿ᭵ᆔ䏀ᶛ䏀ཐθ਺亯᭵ᆔᡌሼ㔝㔣㩳ᇔ㩳㓼θԛどօ㔅⎄ᖘࣵȾ൞ど໔䮵᭵ᆔਇ࣑сθ഑ᆙᓜ⯡᛻࠱ߨਥ㜳ቅӄӂᆙᓜȾ ¾ 伄䲟ഖ㍖φ޻ള⯡᛻߃ᓜਃᕯθ᭵ᆔ㩳൦у਀人ᵕᅀȾ 䈭䰻䈱ᴶ੄ж享ރ䍙༦᱄਀ؗᚥᣡ䵨 http://www.cindasc.com 2 ⴤ ᖋ жȽ⯡᛻ሯ࡬䙖ѐᲥ≊ᓜⲺᢦࣞ䗯䱻ࢀᕧ ....................................................................................... 3 ӂȽᵃࣗѐ㔝㔣᧘ᓋθ᭵ᆔ᭥᫇ᔰᆄѐ儎փ䘆㺂 ........................................................................... 7 пȽ੄㔣ど໔䮵᭵ᆔਇ࣑Ⲻᗻ㾷ᙝࣖཝ ........................................................................................... 9 伄䲟ഖ㍖ ............................................................................................................................................ 10 ഴ ⴤ ᖋ ഴ 1φ䘏䖤⯡᛻ф4ᴾԳਃᕯᴿᡶ⴮ղ .................................................................................. 3 ഴ 2φ4ᴾ亰ᆙ㢸ᙝс┇θ11ᴾ䘼ᆙ㢸ᙝс┇ ....................................................................... 3 ഴ 3φ11ᴾ࡬䙖ѐPMI䶘䎦ᕧޞ亯࠼ .................................................................................... 4 ഴ 4φ11ᴾ࡬䙖ѐPMI䍗⥤ф4ᴾⲺᐤ䐓൞ӄ⭕ӝȽ᯦䇘ঋૂ䞃䘷ᰬ䰪 .............................. 4 ഴ 5φ11ᴾѣള䱨⯡ⲺћṲ᤽ᮦᴿс䲃 ................................................................................. 5 ഴ 6φ11ᴾⲺӝ䴶਍ᥡቅӄ4ᴾ ............................................................................................ 5 ഴ 7φ11ᴾⲺ䞃䘷ᰬ䰪сᥡу਀4ᴾ ..................................................................................... 6 ഴ 8φ11ᴾⲺ㔅⎄ࣞ㜳∊4ᴾ㾷ᕰ ........................................................................................ 6 ഴ 9φ11ᴾԷѐ࡟⏜グ䰪㔝㔣᭬㕟 ........................................................................................ 7 ഴ 10φ࠼㿺′′′′ⵁθቅශԷѐᢵু᱄ᱴ .................................................................................... 7 ഴ 11φ11ᴾᔰᆄѐPMI㔪ᤷ儎Ქ≊θᵃࣗѐPMIഔ㩳 ........................................................ 8 ഴ 12φ11ᴾ्ӢȽᒵᐔӰ⍷䠅ཝᑻс䲃 ............................................................................... 8 ഴ 13φ11ᴾ≪⌛ਇ䘆⦽ቅᑻс䲃 .......................................................................................... 9 ഴ 14φ11ᴾ⸩⋯⋛䶈ᔶᐛ⦽਍ࡦ䜞࠼ᖧଃ ............................................................................ 9 䈭䰻䈱ᴶ੄ж享ރ䍙༦᱄਀ؗᚥᣡ䵨 http://www.cindasc.com 3 жȽ⯡᛻ሯ䙖ѐ࡬Ქ≊ᓜⲺᢦࣞ䗯䱻ᕧࢀ 11ᴾ䙖ѐ࡬PMIᖋᗍ48.0%Ѱٲࢃθ49.2αȾ11ᴾԳ⯡᛻ਃᕯф4ᴾ⴮ղθᖘࣵᴪࣖћጱθռ࡬䙖ѐᲥ≊ᓜ਍∊࠱ߨⲺࡦ4ᴾԳ㾷ቅθᡌᝅ઩⵶⯡᛻ሯᲥ≊ᓜⲺᢦࣞᴿ䗯䱻ࢀᕧ䘯䊗Ⱦ 1εԄ⯡᛻ᖘࣵрⵁθ4ᴾ⯡᛻䳼ѣθ11ᴾ⯡᛻ᐹ࠼ᴪᒵȽ⎿਀㤹പᴪཝȾ11ᴾള޻⯡᛻ᖘࣵћጱθ࠰⧦ཐ⛯ᔶ㣧ቶ䶘Ⱦᡠ㠩11ᴾ29ᰛθ11ᴾ᯦໔⺤䈀ૂᰖ⯽⣬᝕ḉ㘻Ⲻᮦ䠅伏ॽθфԀᒪ4ᴾԳⲺ⯡᛻ᖘࣵ⮛ᴿ⴮ղȾռф4ᴾ⴮∊θ11ᴾⲺ᯦໔⺤䈀ᮦ䠅㓜5.9нׁθ∊4ᴾԳⲺ6.5нׁ㾷ቇжӑȾ㙂11ᴾԳⲺ⯡᛻ѱ㾷ԛᰖ⯽⣬᝕ḉ㘻Ѱѱθъ࠼ᐹᴪᒵȽ㤹പᴪཝȾ 2εрⵁθ࠱ߨ䙖ѐ࡬Ԅ䙖ѐ࡬Ქ≊ᓜᡶ਍࠱ߨቅӄ4ᴾȾ਍⯡᛻ཐਇᖧଃθ11ᴾPMI䘼ᆙ㢸ᙝс䲃θ⭧10ᴾⲺ49.2%с┇㠩48