能源转型的关键矿物—锂（英）

CRITICAL MATERIALSFORTHEENERGYTRANSITION: LITHIUM TECHNICALPAPER1/2022 BYDOLFGIELENANDMARTINALYONS ©IRENA2022 Unlessotherwisestated,materialinthispublicationmaybefreelyused,shared,copied,reproduced,printedand/orstored,providedthatappropriateacknowledgementisgivenoftheauthor(s)asthesourceandIRENAasthecopyrightholder.Materialinthispublicationattributedtothirdpartiesmaybesubjecttoseparatetermsofuseandrestrictions,andappropriatepermissionsfromthesethirdpartiesmayneedtobesecuredbeforeanyuseofsuchmaterial. ISBN978-92-9260-418-9 Citation:Gielen,D.andM.Lyons(2022),Criticalmaterialsfortheenergytransition:Lithium,InternationalRenewableEnergyAgency,AbuDhabi. AboutIRENA TheInternationalRenewableEnergyAgency(IRENA)servesastheprincipalplatformforinternationalco-operation,acentreofexcellence,arepositoryofpolicy,technology,resourceandfinancialknowledge,andadriverofactiononthegroundtoadvancethetransformationoftheglobalenergysystem.Anintergovernmentalorganisationestablishedin2011,IRENApromotesthewidespreadadoptionandsustainableuseofallformsofrenewableenergy,includingbioenergy,geothermal,hydropower,ocean,solarandwindenergy,inthepursuitofsustainabledevelopment,energyaccess,energysecurityandlow-carboneconomicgrowthandprosperity.www.irena.org Acknowledgements WewouldliketothankElizabethPressandPaulKomor(IRENA)andSamuelCarrara(EuropeanCommissionJointResearchCentre)fortheirvaluableexpertinputandinformationleads.Allconclusions,errorsandshortcomingsinthistechnicalbriefarethesoleresponsibilityoftheauthors. Forfurtherinformationortoprovidefeedback:publications@irena.org Disclaimer Theviewsexpressedinthispublicationarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheviewsorpoliciesofIRENA.ThispublicationdoesnotrepresentIRENA’sofficialpositionorviewsonanytopic. TheTechnicalPapersseriesareproducedasacontributiontotechnicaldiscussionsandtodisseminatenewfindingsonrelevanttopics.Suchpublicationsmaybesubjecttocomparativelylimitedpeerreview.Theyarewrittenbyindividualauthorsandshouldbecitedanddescribedaccordingly. Thefindings,interpretationsandconclusionsexpressedhereinarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyreflecttheopinionsofIRENAorallitsMembers.IRENAdoesnotassumeresponsibilityforthecontentofthisworkorguaranteetheaccuracyofthedataincludedherein. NeitherIRENAnoranyofitsofficials,agents,dataorotherthird-partycontentprovidersprovidesawarrantyofanykind,eitherexpressedorimplied,andtheyacceptnoresponsibilityorliabilityforanyconsequenceofuseofthepublicationormaterialherein.Thementionofspecificcompanies,projectsorproductsdoesnotimplythattheyareendorsedorrecommended,eitherbyIRENAortheauthor(s).ThedesignationsemployedandthepresentationofmaterialhereindonotimplytheexpressionofanyopiniononthepartofIRENAortheauthor(s)concerningthelegalstatusofanyregion,country,territory,cityorareaorofitsauthorities,orconcerningthedelimitationoffrontiersorboundaries. TABLEOFCONTENTS EXECUTIVESUMMARY6 INTRODUCTION8 DEMANDPROJECTIONS10 SUPPLYPROJECTIONS14 GLOBALLITHIUMINDUSTRYSTRUCTURE19 LITHIUMSUPPLYCOST21 INNOVATIONSTOREDUCEDEMANDGROWTH24 ENERGYUSEANDCO2EMISSIONSOFLITHIUMPRODUCTION25 THEROLEOFGOVERNMENTSINDE-RISKINGLITHIUMSUPPLY27 REFERENCES30 ANNEX:OUTLINEOFANOBSERVATORYFORCRITICALMATERIALS34 FIGURES Figure1:Lithiumpricetrends2018–20218 Figure2:Lithium-cellmanufacturingcapacitybyregionofplantlocation10 Figure3:Lithiumcarbonateandlithiumhydroxidedemandoutlook11 Figure4:Lithiumhydroxidedemandprojection12 Figure5:Projectedsupplyanddemandbalanceforlithium13 Figure6:Breakdownofgeologicaldepositsandtheirlithiumresourcecontent14 Figure7:Lithiumprocessingroutesandapplications15 Figure8:Lithiumsupplyprojections2019–202517 Figure9:Globallithiumbrineproductionoutputforecast(2009–2025E)17 Figure10:Lithiumsupplybycompany19 Figure11:Lithiumhardrockandbrineoperations,cashcostdistribution21 Figure12:Breakdownoflithiumproductioncashcost22 Figure13:Productpricevariations22 Figure14:Profitabilityoflithiumprojects23 Figure15:CO2intensityofdifferentlithiumhydroxidesupplychains25 TABLES Table1:Lithiummineralsandbrine;worldproduction,bycountryandlocality16 BOXES Box1:Lithiumspecificationsforprocessing13 Box2:Aneedtoacceleratemineexpansions18 Box3:China’sroleaskeyplayerinthegloballithiummarket29 4|CRITICALMATERIALSFORTHEENERGYTRANSITION:OUTLOOKFORLITHIUM ABBREVIATIONS Alaluminium BNEFBloombergNewEnergyFinanceCAGRcompoundannualgrowthrateCATLContemporaryAmperex TechnologyCo.Ltd. DLEdirectlithiumextractionDOEUSDepartmentofEnergyEVelectricvehicle Feiron GWtgigawatthours H2SO4sulphuricacid Li2Olithiumoxide Li2CO3lithiumcarbonate Li-NMClithium–nickel–manganese–cobalt LiOHlithiumhydroxide Mtmilliontonnes NMCnickel–manganese–cobalt Pblead PHEVplug-inhybridelectricvehicle ppmpartspermillion SMMShanghaiMetalsMarket SQMSociedadQuímicayMinera IMFInternationalMonetaryFund tCO2 tonnesofCO2 IRENAInternationalRenewableEnergy tCO/ttonnesofCO pertonne Agency22 ktthousandtonnes kWhkilowatthours LCElithiumcarbonateequivalent LFPlithiumironphosphate Lilithium LIBlithium–ionbattery tLCEtonnesoflithiumcarbonate e