中国经济评论：强美元下，人民币兑美元汇率预计持续偏弱

人民币对美元汇率近期显著走弱，昨天创下2007年一来的最低水平后,今天反弹。强美元是近期人民币兑美元走弱的主要原因。人民币兑一篮子货币指数仍较坚挺。人民币兑美元汇率的下行压力与其他几个亚洲新兴市场货币一致，而明显低于非美元G7货币。中国强劲的贸易顺差继续支撑人民币汇率的基本面。 我们预计中国人民央行将继续容忍人民币兑美元汇率的弹性，避免汇率水平大幅偏离基本面。但同时央行可能继续通过政策指引，人民币对美元中间价和其他政策工具 （例如重启逆周期因子等），以防止人民币汇率的过度波动。 在持续的美联储鹰派态势和全球经济增速放缓的背景下，我们预计美元指数在未来3-6个月持续位于高位。但中期仍会随联储加息见顶而走弱。持续的强美元意味着相对弱的人民币。我们预计人民币对美元汇率近期可能在7-7.3区间徘徊。 UntiltheUSD/CNYreboundedtoday,ithadweakenedtoalevellastseenin2007.USdollarstrengthhasbeendrivingrecentUSD/CNYweakness.TheCNYindexremainssolidagainstabasketofcurrencies.DownwardpressureoftherenminbiagainsttheUSdollarisinlinewithseveralotherEMAsiacurrencies,butsignificantlylesspronouncedthanpressureonnon-USDG7currenciesthisyear.China’sstrongtradesurpluscontinuestosupportrenminbidemand. WeexpectthePBoCwillcontinuetotolerategreatercurrencyflexibilityinordertoavoidlargecurrencymisalignments.Meanwhile,itplanstoreduceexcessivevolatilitythroughverbalsignaling,strongerUSD/CNYfixing,andotherpolicytools,forexample,throughtheformalre-introductionofcountercyclicalfactorsinitsdailyfixing. WeexpectUSdollarstrengthtopersistinthenextthree-to-sixmonthsastheFedstayshawkishandasglobaluncertaintypersists.Followingthisperiod,wewouldexpectUSdollarstrengthtowane,especiallyoncetheFedhikingcycledrawstoaclose.ContinuedUSdollarstrengthislikelytobemirroredbyasoftUSD/CNY,whichinourviewislikelytohoverwithintherecentrangeof7.0-7.3. KevinXie CCBISECURITIES|RESEARCH ChinaEconomicsUpdate:USDCNYlikelytoremainweakamidUSDstrength 中国经济评论：强美元下，人民币兑美元汇率预计持续偏弱 (852)39118241 kevinxie@ccbintl.com LiCui (852)39118274 cuili@ccbintl.com Analystcertificationsandotherdisclosuresonlastpage.ThisresearchreporthasbeencreatedbyCCBInternationalSecuritiesLtd.1 CNYweakensagainstthestrongUSD TherenminbiweakenedagainsttheUSdollarinrecentdays.TheUSD/CNYtopped7.3,itsweakestlevelsinceDec2007,beforeasignificantreversalinthepastfewhours.ThespotUSD/CNYanditsdailyfixingwidenedto1.6%,pointingtothedownwardpressureontherenminbiagainstthedollar(Fig1). ThedriverofrenminbiweaknesshasbeenUSdollarstrength.TheCNYindex,measuredagainstabasketofcurrencieshasbeenquiteresilient(Fig2).DownwardpressureoftherenminbiagainstdollarhasbeeninlinewithotherEMAsiacurrenciessuchastheMalaysianringgit(MYR),theThaibaht(THB)andthePhilippinepeso(PHP),butsignificantlylessthanthepressureonnon-USDG7currenciesthisyear(Fig3and4).WhilethesoftdomesticgrowthoutlookandthePBoC’saccommodativemonetarypolicyhavebeenaheadwindtothecurrency,tradeandthecurrentaccountsurplushavecontinuedtoclimb,supportingdemandfortherenminbi.Inturn,bearishsentimentandsellingpressureontherenminbihasbeenrelativelycontained,keepingbothwellbelowthelevelsseenin2015-2016(Fig5). PBoCallowsfordownwardflexibilitywhilesendingreassuringsignals ThePBoChasingeneraltoleratedtheflexibilityofthebilateralexchangerateandweakerrenminbiagainsttheUSdollar.WhiletheUSD/CNYwasstableduringthefirstthreeweeksofOct,USD/CNYfixingincreasedthisweek,inkeepingwiththetrendofthespotFXrate.Inourview,thePBoCdoesnotaimtomaintainUSD/CNYataparticularfixedlevel,butinsteadwantstomanagevolatility.Regulatorshavegivenverbalsupportfortherenminbiandtheyaimtoanchorcurrencyexpectationsagainstrapiddepreciation.TheRequiredReserveRatiowashikedonforwardFXsalestoincreasethecostofsellingCNYmonthsago.Inaddition,on25Oct,thePBoCannouncednewmeasurestoallowcross-borderborrowingbyfinancialsectors. WeexpectthePBoCwillcontinuetotolerategreatercurrencyflexibilitytoavoidlargemisalignments,whilestilldampeningexcessivevolatilitythroughverbalsignaling,strongerUSD:CNYfixing,andotherpotentialpolicytools,suchastheformalre-introductionofcountercyclicalfactorsinitsdailyfixing. USDCNYoutlook TheUSdollartrendremainscrucial.RapidFedratehikeshavepushedUSdollarstrengththisyear.TheFOMCaimstocontaininflationpressurewithfront-loadedratehikesthisyearafterhavingsatonitshandsformostof2021.However,inflationremainsstubbornlyhighagainsttheFed’sexpectations.Financialmarketsexpect125-150bpratehikestobeannouncedattheNovandDecpolicymeetings,whichwillbringthemid-pointofFedFundsratesto4.4-4.6%.SuchhighFedFundsrateswouldbesignificantlyhigherthantheFed’sneutralrateestimateof2.50-2.75%,indicatingarestrictivepolicystance.Atthesametime,USgrowthhasslowedassuggestedbyrecentdata,andconcernsaboutarecessionandrisingunemploymenthavedominatedheadlines. WeexpecttheFedwillslowthehikingpacein2023Ftoassesstheimpactofearlyhikesandtheeconomy’sabilitytocopewithitsrestrictivepolicies.Weexpectinflationtoslowmeaningfullyfrommid-2023Fonwards.Housinginflation,adriverofrecentinflationsurprises,islikelytofadein2023Fagainstabackdropofsofteningpropertyactivity.However,thedowntrendininflationmaywellbeslowerthantheFedorthemarketexpect(readherefordetails),suggestingupwardriskstoratesremain. Meanwhile,theeconomicoutlookforEuropehasdarkenedmarkedly.VariousindicatorspointtoadeeprecessionintheEUifitisn’tinarecessionalready(Fig6).Bycontrast,USeconomicgrowthhelduprelativelywelldespitetherecentslowdown.Labormarketsremaintightdespitesignsofsoftening. ThuswhileweexpecttheUSdollartosofteneventuallyastheFeds