棉花月报：经济衰退预期降低需求 棉价低位震荡成常态

!3#$%&'()*+ffi(-./012 !"#$ [\]^_`abcdefgCF2301Fh[13760e 14500]i 0jk]^lmnBofiqrst)ju]vwxyz[| ]~«edÄÅÇfiÉÑÖÜáàÖkâäi ãåçé]JèêëeíìBoîïñÇuQóòôöõúflûkü†°¢£e§•çé¶ß®©™êe§•]´ ¨ÊÆØë]x¶ve± öc¥µy§•dÄw]|]wÆkÓ¥¿Åeªº–æø]´¿æ¡¬øƒõRåi «ï»…ª–æøeu|]´áàÖ À_`eÃÕŒœ–—“k]´vwi‘y’÷°gegЫ⁄¤‹òe›¬ )jfi0jdwFflæÀ‡·‚efiÇ]´„‰¡Âe…Ê –z[Á¿ËÈiÍÎeEÏ]ÌÓÔfi]^ØvÒÚÛ÷ ¡Ùküı®©i ˆ˜æøe¯]^˘@ı˙˚ªºk®¸eA…˛–z ![Á¿Âˇ!"e›#l|c%efg&BëÀ‡ Àab'(k)*i "&'() #[\]^ab'(cdi+,-Àå.i $ *+,- 1fiãå!"i2fi|/01i !"#$%&"' )*+,-./001203334 ./0123224530536 789:;<=> Z#$%&0()*+1(-Z0010/*01 23w4567898:;<=6>m @ABCDEFGHIJK0/)L(MNO(001(0P QRSTUVW%&0M0))X0X1 YZ54567898:;<=6>m @ABCDEFGHIJK0/)L(MNO(001(0P "#$%&'() [\CF2301abFh13760-14500i !1#$%&'()*+!-#$%./)*+ "#$%&w()*+Q-./0"1234 *#+ƒ-./012 u|234û5n0j§•]´…ª67e8‹n§•]´f9wÆ:(/X)=0;<e= £8‹xy>]kcu|e[)jk67£]x8vnu]wÆeBo?@yA¡Be0jk67£fivwxyöınCD:M01;<eÃÕŒœ[)j£üEÃÕŒœ]⁄¤F˙–GHIewÆ8v:110=X;<i§•]´¨ÊÙx8v:(/)(=);<e\JKz8‹:1)*/=M ;<e…ª#lLc%i Mqrst>ENOPQ67êëeR\u]STÆ|_eU:0j((VWXu|(0((Y(MZyG[]\gSTÆc1)1=));<eSTöyc+)]e/Z^_c/X]`U:WX\gabÆc*1=*1;<eaböyc1/]e/Z^_c11]icǧ•çéüı®©d]e¨Ê–ef*¢gêeku]R\STÆ]xü·i ˆ˜æøehiqrst67j'ki lüæ10jBofiu]dÄmnk¬dwFõop–kqrstuvqrstfiÉÑÖkâ ¿e›¬0jwqrst…ª67£u]ÉÑÖîïBx*(=0]e[ÉÑÖy⁄îï¿zDBoW[k~«e|¬[wÆy⁄öın]@CDefi¨ÊØ~óÄÅˇk8#e›¬Õǧ•çéöcÓÇffiÑkÖÜuv¿æ£|Ü‘yádÄ]wì¨Ê|¨Ê[Ükàâefg¥µy [E]wÆäfi™ãkåçüó@éÚfi]´¨ÊÆöıÁèü8i !0#12$%34!5#67$%34 !8#97$%34!:#;<$%34 !=#97>?$@ABCD!E#97>?$@AFGD "#$%&w()*+Q-./0"1234 3#45-./012 M=1êëía8jNO1ì'( êëíakNO‹î[)jïnñóevòn1*=XôöõúiAΨÊBoeffiDùûõŠ†°e΢£3§ç•˙˚n†°k¶ßi|®Boªº©Çfi™´Ü]¨êëLÆ^ ˘ü·áˇØ!"u±)jNO˚‹îi ¢MA¥µMe)jÄ|êëìíaNO˚cM00=X+*u;ev´‹îcXjk1X=/)]äª1*=Xôöõú:(=))]e=£êëìNO˚v´‹îcXjk1+=(]Lc–0=(M]eíaNO˚v´‹îcXjk1)=//]äª:/=10]i|ÎdÄçélÏæB£euø¿ıòô¥¡ò ¬e|®BoªºXƒ`víe™´Ü]¨êëLÆ^˘ü·&êëìía¿^ü·e“kN O˚·_iu@$ôL!«\n)j£|êëìíaNO˚‹îi »Zê놰L…:DùûØfiNOÛ÷n¡Âu±iDùû Àk¬|/ÄÕÃÕ´| ˇkfœeäfiB–k–[—¬“ø[|/i›=‘fiÇw3æ’eÕÃÕ÷¬>ØÄke«ï±Še›¬Æ]eŸ´]e@uËÈfœk„we-⁄±i ¤kæ’eW[|/kêëı3D[Nm$ô°¢TÁ¬êëíaìNO‹zy›Bnefi¬DùûÜfl‡Bokêëíaw鋉·¬e|/êëNO¿æ@éÚóü‚„‰i¡ÂDùûêëNOkÕµ'_ew3ÊÁ¡¬·Ë§e]´áLÆÄ‹ÈöOe„wÍÎfiw3 —ÏfiLÌÆ÷hy⁄Ü£|—óÓÔe!©†°L…u±óÒi !H#67IJK@ALMBND)O9*+!1P#67IJK@ALMFGD)O9*+ !11#67QR@ALMBND)O9*+!1-#67QR@ALMFGD)O9*+ "#$%&w()*+Q-./0"1234 M=(†°vòÙ£3ÚÛÙ˙ R\e£|¢ıÚˆfi/00ˇH£3˜¯kÁ˘˙˚8¸êëe£3W[⁄˝ ˛Šˇfi ÷hBfi†°òádÄ!Ûe+(=/]k£3"ëe†°¡#¿e[°Ù°ˇfi‰°]°òiBo_$fi¨Ê%&¡Re(õêëía΢£3)*†°kÛy‹]i +k-./µ\heêë–„wç01¢2Li)j£üEW[kê뜘345|_AA÷ìKzB£e›)j£üE6êë–„wç01¢2Leªº¥c/µffiÑeê뜘3ÖJ´¬î78iM£|]êë9ô:µMêëeU:0j1+Ve;]<œ˜3ÖJ´‹ò /=Xôöõú:/M=(]e§]=5˜3ÖJ´‹ò/ôöõú:/1=+]i†°‹òfiÀ>2Leêëœ÷ìVKòîeê<±C@:^_u@—ÏÂ2LÌÆÌAeLÆBKkCnØ[7îe<œLÆKzJ´‹ò0=(s:(M=/seëœLÆKzJ´‹ò(=+s:1M=*si !10#$%STUV)WX+!15#$%YTUV)WX+ !18#Z[UV)\+!1:#]^UV)\+ !1=#Z_`)WX+!1E#]^_`)Oa+ "#$%&w()*+Q-./0"1234 M=M/Î^ÓDEeöO÷h@8 FÇ–[/Î]^ÓÜ/Î]<^ÓDEGØuvSHI]xJ_ku±e“k]´]< öO÷h@8eRKôj]´Ü]<öOÆLó¡võykvòi (0((Z)jÄ|öO]´10=X*;<eJ´·0=1]ev´‹(*=*]e=£öOu]0=1/ ;<ev´‹1M*]`(0((Z1–)j\göO1M+;<ev´·(M]`(0(1Y((ZyÄ|\göO]´1X(=);<ev´·MX=1]i (0((ZÄ|öO]<MTc+=+;<eJ´‹ò1(=)]ev´VZvò+(=)]eî[äfi _`i(0((Z1–)jÄ|öO]<MT)(;<ev´vò**=X]i(0(1Y((ZyÄ|öO] <MR1**;<ev´vòMM]i !1H#1bcdefA$()*+!-P#ghdefA$()*+ !-1#1bcdefAij)*+!--#ghdefAij)*+ !-0#$%fA`BND)X+!-5#$%fA`FGD)X+ "#$%&w()*+Q-./0"1234 M=*…ªÏN" 56&789:;<=>5 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 期初库存 995 819.7 761.9 779 859.63 产量 589 604 580 633 582.35 进口 132 203 159 274 190 �口 3.6 4.8 3.4 3 2 消费 892.7 860 718.5 823.37 800 期末库存 819.7 761.9 779 859.63 829.98 总供给 1716 1626.7 1500.9 1686 1631.98 总消费 896.3 864.8 721.9 826.37 802 库消比 91% 88% 108% 105% 98% "#$%&Q-./0"1234 研究报告•Z.C.R&DCenter "#$%&() !"#$%&ƒ()*+,-./0123234 56#021-6886666678#021-688655559:;<#4008880958=>#http://www.zcqh.com ƒ/012 3456789458:;<=>?@ABCDE0571-56080568 /X012 GY5Z[P/L;9311:;\]^T_5`703-704WCDE025-58836800 ;j012 fGMk45kLlP=mL980:3:B11n1108WCDE0371-60979630 st012 st5ulPvwTx;y500:Lz[|v]?8A2703 W CDE028-62132736 äãåçéè9HIJ ;](äã)êëíìîŠPåçéè9958:23B2301WCDE021-68866819 äãùáG9HIJäã5ûüPùáG9365:B`205WCDE021-68866659 ßYãHIJ ßY5ãP©™´5:B11n1117r1119-1121WCDE010-63942832 ©OHIJ ©O5¥µPtµG9;©™ÖA1209 CDE0755-82881599 væHIJ væ5ø¿P¡8x114:;<=>?@ABCDE022-58228153 ‰«HIJ ‰«5/ßP«¢96:»]=;ôT5…510º2CDE023-67634197 —áHIJ —á5ø¿Pú“à100-4:”‘?8A905WCDE024-31872007 ¤‹HIJ ¤‹5›fiPflfTx236-237:A`10nCDE027-85666911 ~‰HIJ ~‰5„Pø¿922:;<=>T_304r307 CDE029-87938499 34HIJ 3456789458:2B206r208WCDE0571-56080563 Ô4HIJ NÒEÔ45?ÚPef~9588-119:ÛÙıI?8 !"#$%&'()*+ø-8 CD0514-87866997 FGHIJ KLMFG5NOPQRL963:STUV9:B11B 1119AWCDE0531-83196200 abHIJ /XMab5cdPefL9555:gh]^A1808 CDE0510-81665833 k4HIJ fGMk45=mPop969:op1q707r716WCDE0371-65611075 K~012 K~Xj5ŠÅÇÉPXjÑwÖPÜáà159:1â10 n1003WCDE0351-7091383 ñóHIJ òGñó5vôPöõ;9úy426:;<T_508-510WCDE0731-82787001 G†HIJ /~MG†5°¢£P§•~949:-¶?8H`602WCDE0791-88457727 ¨¡HIJ ¨¡5ÆáPØf9288:±?81306r1307WCDE0551-62651811 IKHIJ IK59GP7‹?8ÿª;ôP2º2B1804WCDE0315-2210860 ¬≠HIJ KLM¬≠5L±PFG9257:ƒI<_?8B10BCDE0633-2297817  ÀHIJÃÕŒ À5œKP7‹?8–B20B2010CDE0476-5951109 _’HIJ ¥ZM_’5÷-Pïÿàx&Ÿd928:»⁄‹T_… 7BFº2CDE0592-5630235 ‡4HIJ ‡45v·P‚„~919:v·gh?8A1706WCDE0519-85515185 GÊHIJ /XGÊ5ÁËP;GÈÍÎ34`2202r2203WCDE0513-81183555 ·ÏHIJ ƒ/M·Ï5Ìd5lÎTxß91698:ÓƒT_7-2-1 CDE0574-63032202 ?@AB#CDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRMSfiUVGHFWXYZ[\Y]^_`abQ c]abdefFGHZgh]ijk