数字化和社会保护：越南的宏观和微观教训（英）

DigitalizationandSocialProtection:MacroandMicroLessonsforVietnam AmrHosnyandAlexandreSollaci WP/22/185 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate. TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. 2022 SEP ©2022InternationalMonetaryFundWP/22/185 IMFWorkingPaper Asia-PacificDepartment DigitalizationandSocialProtection:MacroandMicroLessonsforVietnamPreparedbyAmrHosnyandAlexandreSollaci* AuthorizedfordistributionbyEraDabla-NorrisSeptember2022 IMFWorkingPapersdescriberesearchinprogressbytheauthor(s)andarepublishedtoelicitcommentsandtoencouragedebate.TheviewsexpressedinIMFWorkingPapersarethoseoftheauthor(s)anddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheIMF,itsExecutiveBoard,orIMFmanagement. ABSTRACT:TheCOVID-19shockhasunderscoredtheimportanceofdigitaltoolsforenhancingtheeffectivenessandefficiencyofsocialprotectionsystems.Cross-countryevidencesuggeststhatdigitalIDslinkedwithbankand/ormobilemoneyaccountscanimprovethedeliveryofsocialprotectionprogramsandbetterreacheligiblebeneficiaries.UsingdatafromtheVietnamHouseholdLivingStandardSurvey,wepresentmicrosimulationsonthewelfaregainsofdigitalsocialprotectionduringthepandemic.Whiledigitalizationoffersopportunities,potentialriskswouldneedtobecarefullymanaged.Vietnamisadvancingonindividualpiecesofthedigitalizationpuzzle,includingfulldigitalIDsandmobilemoney,andthenextstepistoputthesepiecestogether. JELClassificationNumbers: C15,J65,H31,O57 Keywords: digitalization,socialprotection,Covid-19 Author’sE-MailAddress: AHosny@imf.org;ABalduinoSollaci@imf.org; *ThemanuscriptbenefitedfromusefulcommentsandsuggestionsfromVuChau,EraDabla-Norris,EmineHanedar;JeffKearns,HuongLanVu,ChrisPapageorgiou,CianRuaneandYueZhou. WORKINGPAPERS DigitalizationandSocialProtection:MacroandMicroLessonsforVietnam PreparedbyAmrHosnyandAlexandreSollaci Contents 1.Introduction5 2.IdentifyingBeneficiaries:Cross-CountryConsiderations7 3.ReachingBeneficiaries:Cross-CountryExperiences10 4.SimulatingtheWelfareGainsofDigitalSocialProtectionforHouseholdsDuringCovid-1913 References19 Annex:DataandMeasurements21 FIGURES Fig1:MobileandInternetSubscriptions6 Fig2:MobileandInternetPrices6 Fig3:FinancialInclusionIndices6 Fig4:Coverage,SocialProtectionandLabor6 Fig5:Non-Take-UpandLeakage7 Fig6:Digital/BiometricIDs9 Fig7:G2P(GovernmentTransferPayments)10 Fig8:MobileMoneyvsFinancialInstitutions11 Fig9:MobileMoneyOutletsvsFinancial11 Fig10:P2PPayments12 Fig11:P2BPayments12 Fig12:P2GPayments12 Fig13:RegulationandMobileMoneyAdoption13 Fig14:DigitalandFinancialAccessinVietnam14 Figure15:IncomeDistributionandLossesUnderCounterfactualScenarios,𝜀=𝟎𝟎.𝟓�16 TABLES Table1:Averageincomeloss(percent,relativeto2018baseline)15 Table2:DigitalandFinancialAccessforHouseholdsinVietnam17 1.Introduction Aselsewhere,digitalizationisrapidlyspreadinginVietnam—atrendacceleratedbythepandemic.Vietnamhasarelativelyhighpenetrationofmobilephonesandinternet(fixedandmobile-broadbandsat20and70percent,respectively),comparabletoASEANpeers(Figure1).Vietnamisalsooneofthefirstcountriesintheworldtotrial5G(Cameronetal,2019)andofferscompetitivecellularandbroadbandpricesforitsregion,althoughinternetspeedremainsrelativelylow(Figure2).Further,whileVietnamlagsbehindpeersontraditionalmeasuresoffinancialinclusionsuchasaccessandusageofaccountsatfinancialinstitutions,itperformswellondigitalmeasuresoffinancialinclusionsuchasaccessandusageofinternetandmobileaccounts(Figure3).Therearealsosuccessfule-govachievements,includinginitiativessuchasthenationalpublicservicesportal,thee-documentexchangeplatform,andthenewnationalfinancialinclusionstrategy. Notwithstandingwidespreaddigitalization,theuseofdigitaltoolsforsocialprotectionremainslimited.Despiteongoingefforts,thecoverageprovidedbyVietnam’ssocialprotectionsystemisstillincomplete,anddeliveryremainsfragmented.Evenpriortothepandemic,coverageofsocialprotectionprogramswaslowcomparedtopeers,partlyduetoalargeinformalworkforce.In2019,onlyabout35percentofthelaborforcewascoveredbysocialprotection(Figure4).Classificationofbeneficiarieswasalsopiecemeal,andcoveragewasparticularlylowintheexistingemergencysupportprograms(WorldBank,2021a).Furthermore,whileVietnamhaswelldevelopedsocialprogramsfortheverypoor,thereisrelativelylittleassistanceofferedtoothervulnerablegroups,suchasinformalurbanworkers,increasingtheimportanceofself-insurancemechanismsforsuchhouseholds.1Thedeliverysystemforprovidingsupportwasalsosuboptimal,relyingonmanual,time-consumingregistrationandinefficientpaymentprocedures. Limitedusedofdigitaltoolsduringthepandemicaffectedthetimelinessandeffectivedeliveryofassistance,particularlyduringlockdowns.AccordingtotheWorldBank(2022b),anestimatedUS$1.9billioninaggregatehouseholdincomewaslostduringthelockdownsin2021Q3.Sinceexistingvulnerablegroupsandsocialprotectionrecipientswerepre-approvedtoreceiveCOVID-19relieftop-ups,thebenefitsfrompandemicreliefwerereceivedbypoorhouseholds.How