炼油行业洞察力报告：行业扩张加剧市场波动（英）

OilRefiningIndustryInsights StretchedSectorFuelsMarketVolatility AReportbytheInternationalEnergyForum andS&Plobal September2022 AreportbytheInternationalEnergyForumandS&PGlobalCommodityInsights September2022 Writtenandproducedby: MasonHamiltonmason.hamilton@ief.orgAllysonCutrightallyson.cutright@ief.orgKurtBarrowkurt.barrow@ihsmarkit.com EleanorBuddseleanor.budds@ihsmarkit.com AbouttheInternationalEnergyForum TheInternationalEnergyForum(IEF)istheworld'slargestinternationalorganizationofenergyministersfrom71countriesandincludesbothproducingandconsumingnations.TheIEFhasabroadmandatetoexamineallenergyissuesincludingoilandgas,cleanandrenewableenergy,sustainability,energytransitionsandnewtechnologies,datatransparency,andenergyaccess.ThroughtheForumanditsassociatedevents,officials,industryexecutives,andotherexpertsengageinadialogueofincreasingimportancetoglobalenergysecurityandsustainability. AboutS&PGlobalCommodityInsights Formorethan100years,S&PGlobalCommodityInsightshasbeenatrustedconnectorthatbringstogetherthoughtleaders,marketparticipants,governments,andregulatorstoco-createsolutionsthatleadtoprogress.VitaltonavigatingEnergyTransition,itscoverageincludesoilandgas,power,chemicals,metals,agriculture,andshipping.S&PGlobalCommodityInsightsisadivisionofS&PGlobal,theworld'sforemostproviderofcreditratings,benchmarks,analytics,andworkflowsolutionsintheglobalcapital,commodity,andautomotivemarkets. TableofContents ExecutiveSummary3 Introduction:TurbulentEnergyMarkets4 CurrentStateofPlay:RefineriesRunningatFull-Tilt5 DemandhasrecoveredfromCOVID-195 Productpricesarerisingfasterthancrudeprices6 Noquickoreasyfixes7 HowWeGotHere:APerfectStorm8 ClimatepoliciesandCOVID-19acceleratedrefineryclosuresandgreenconversions8 MarketsroiledbyRussia’sinvasionofUkraine9 China’sunderutilizedrefiningcapacityunlikelytosavetheday11 Highnaturalgasprices’feedbackloop:Higherrefiningcostsandincreasedoildemand.12 What’sNext:ReliefontheHorizon?14 Twomillionbarrelsperdayofnetcapacityisplannedtocomeonlinebyend-202314 Historyshowsramp-upscouldtakeayearormore14 Balanceslikelytoremaintightforseveralyears15 Medium-TermInvestmentTrends15 Capexinvestmentneedstoreach$190bnthrough203015 Downstreamdecarbonizationspendingontherise16 Russiancapacityupgrades(+650kb/d)willbestalled16 AnEvolvingDownstreamModel17 Refineriesarestuckbetweenthehammerandtheanvil17 Fuelstandardscontinuetotightenglobally18 Evolvingshippingregulations18 Biofueldemandtodoubleby205019 EVpenetrationacceleratingandoffsetting4mb/dofdemandby203020 Demandgrowthforpetrochemicals21 ChallengingInvestmentEnvironment:WhoSurvives?22 Paramountuncertainty22 Survivalofthefittestandlucky23 Conclusion24 ExecutiveSummary Short-termdynamics Globalrefiningcapacitydeclinedforthefirsttimein20yearsin2020,andagainin2021asthepandemicweakenedmargins,acceleratedrefineryclosures,andmotivatedconversionstobiofuelsordistributionterminals.Arecord3.8millionbarrelsperday(mb/d)ofgrossatmosphericcrudedistillationcapacityclosedbetween2020andmid-2022. ConstrictedcrudedistillationcapacityandreducedpetroleumproductexportsfromRussiaandChinahavedrivenrefinerymarginstorecordlevels.Productmarketsarecurrentlyfraughtasrefineryutilizationacrossmostregionsareatmaximum,inventoriesarelow,andnewcapacityismonthsoryearsaway.Refiningmarginsforkeyproductsballoonedinthesummerof2022toarecord$35-50/bblcomparedtothenormal$10/bbl–underscoringtheseverebottlenecksinthesector. RussiaandChinaaretheprimarytwocountriesthathaveavailablerefiningcapacity,butsanctionslimitRussia’sexportsanddomesticpolicieslimitChina’s.Russiawastheworld’slargestexporteroffueloilandheavyfeedstocks,butsanctionsandembargoshavedisplacednearly3mb/dofproductsthatarenoteasilyrerouted.Chineseproductexportsaredown30%from2019levelsasthegovernmenthasstrategicallyshiftedtoprioritizingdomesticmarkets. Productmarketswilllikelyremainverytightuntilmid-decade.Morethan2mb/dinnetcapacityisscheduledtocomeonlinebyend-2023,buthistoryshowsdelaysandoperationalchallengescouldstallprogress.Thesearelikelythelastmajor,greenfield,fuel-oriented,refineriestobebuiltastheenergytransitionwilllimittheneedforconventionalrefinerycapacityinthefuture. Inboththeshort-termandmedium-term,thebalanceforfuelmarketswillbefragile.Anyunexpected,prolongedrefineryoutagecouldcausehighandvolatileprices.Therewillnotbesignificantextracapacity,noranysignificantprojectscomingonline.Thisunderscorestheneedtomaintainrobustinventoriesandcontingencyplansforsupplies. Medium-termoutlook Highrefiningmarginsinthepastledtomoreinvestment,butthatisnotoccurringnow.Theexpectationthattheenergytransitioncouldmakerefineriesstrandedassetshasdeterredinvestment.ThelastmajorgreenfieldfuelrefineriesarelikelyFID’dandwillcomeonstreaminthenextfewyears. Downstreamrefiningcapitalexpenditureswillneedtoreach$190bnthrough2030forupgradestorefiningcapacity,petrochemicalfeedstockbuildouts,andsustainingexistingassets.Thisisdownnearly50%frompre-COVIDlevelsandwilllikelybemet.Meanwhile,investmentsinpetrochemicalcomplexesanddownstreamdecarbonizationeffo