The Effects of Means-Tested Private School Choice Programs on College Enrollment and Graduation

R E S E A R C H R E P O R T The Effects of Means-Tested Private School Choice Programs on College Enrollment and Graduation Matthew M. Chingos Daniel Kuehn Tomas Monarrez Patrick J. Wolf U R B A N IN S TI TU TE U R B A N IN S TI TU TE U R B A N IN S TI TU TE U N IV E R S I TY OF A R K A NSAS John F. Witte Brian Kisida U N IV E R S I TY OF U N IV ER S I TY OF M I S S OU RI W I S C ONS I N–MA D I S ON July 2019 C E N T E R O N E D U C A T I O N D A T A A N D P O L I C Y A B O U T T H E U R B A N I N S T I T U T E The nonprofit Urban Institute is a leading research organization dedicated to developing evidence-based insights that improve people’s lives and strengthen communities. For 50 years, Urban has been the trusted source for rigorous analysis of complex social and economic issues; strategic advice to policymakers, philanthropists, and practitioners; and new, promising ideas that expand opportunities for all. Our work inspires effective decisions that advance fairness and enhance the well-being of people and places. Copyright © July 2019. Urban Institute. Permission is granted for reproduction of this file, with attribution to the Urban Institute. Cover image by Tim Meko. Contents Acknowledgments iv The Effects of Private School Choice Programs 1 Florida Tax Credit Scholarship 3 Data and Methods 4 Results 5 Milwaukee Voucher Program 10 Data and Methods 11 Results 11 Washington, DC, Voucher Program 17 Data and Methods 17 Results 18 Conclusion 21 Appendix Tables 23 Milwaukee 23 Washington, DC 28 Notes 30 References 32 About the Authors 35 Statement of Independence 36 IV A C K N O W L E D G M E N T S Acknowledgments This report was funded by the Bill and Susan Oberndorf Foundation, the Walton Family Foundation, the Robertson Foundation, Kate and Bill Duhamel, the Foundation for Excellence in Education, and the Charles and Helen Schwab Foundation. We are grateful to them and to all our funders, who make it possible for Urban to advance its mission. The views expressed are those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Urban Institute, its trustees, or its funders. Funders do not determine research findings or the insights and recommendations of Urban experts. Further information on the Urban Institute’s funding principles is available at urban.org/fundingprinciples. The Effects of Private School Choice Programs State and local governments are increasingly allowing public funds to be used to cover private school tuition through such programs as vouchers, tax credit scholarships, and education savings accounts. Participation in these programs has increased rapidly, from less than 150,000 in 2004 to more than 450,000 in 2019 (EdChoice 2019). Private school choice programs are generally targeted to students based on family income or special educational needs (EdChoice 2019). Research on private school choice has often focused on measuring the impact of attending a private school on students’ test scores, relative to attending a public school. Until recently, this research showed neutral to positive effects of private school choice on student achievement (Egalite and Wolf 2016; Shakeel, Anderson, and Wolf 2016). But recent studies have found negative effects of participating in private school choice programs in Indiana, Louisiana, and Ohio (Figlio and Karbownik 2016; Waddington and Berends 2017; Wolf et al. 2019), although these negative effects tend to dissipate over time. Test scores are an important measure of learning, but they may miss important impacts, both positive and negative, that schools have on student development. Test scores may overstate the benefits associated with attending a school that focuses on teaching to the test at the expense of important student outcomes not measured by standardized tests. The opposite may also be true. Some schools may have positive impacts that are not adequately captured by standardized test performance. And test scores often cannot be used to measure policy effects in high schools, which usually do not administer annual tests. Studies of school choice programs have increasingly included outcomes other than test scores among their primary analyses. These outcomes include student and parent satisfaction (Campbell 2008; Dee 2005; Howell et al. 2006; Kisida and Wolf 2015; Schneider et al. 1997), as well as societal goals, such as racial integration and reductions in achievement gaps for students of color and other historically disadvantaged groups of students (Betts et al. 2006; Bifulco and Ladd 2007; Egalite, Mills, and Wolf 2017; Greene 2005; Neal 2006; Zimmer et al. 2009). Recent work has also considered the impact of transferring to or from an alternative to public school on students’ special needs classification (Wolf and Lasserre-Cortez 2018; Wolf, Witte, and Fleming 2012). 2 T H E E F F E C T S O F M E A N S-T E S T E D P R I V A T E S C H OO L C H O I C E P R O G R A M S Educational at