Effects of Psychosocial Characteristics of Middle School Students on High School Grades and On-Time Graduation

Effects of Psychosocial Characteristics of Middle School Students on High School Grades and On-Time Graduation ACT WORKING PAPER 2015-07 Joann L. Moore, PhD Jason D. Way, PhD Alex Casillas, PhD Jeremy Burrus, PhD Jeff Allen, PhD Mary Ann Hanson, PhD July, 2015 ACT Working Paper Series ACT working papers document preliminary research. The papers are intended to promote discussion and feedback before formal publication. The research does not necessarily reflect the views of ACT. This form of the manuscript is under review at European Journal of Personality Assessment. It has not yet been accepted for publication. Joann Moore is a research scientist in Statistical and Applied Research specializing in prediction of secondary and postsecondary outcomes from academic and non-cognitive factors. Jason Way is a research psychologist in Career Transitions Research. He researches behavioral and psychosocial skills, including their relevance to important academic and work outcomes. Alex Casillas is a senior research psychologist in Research for Assessment and Learning specializing in assessment design and behavioral predictors of performance and persistence. Jeremy Burrus is a principal research scientist in the Career Transitions Research department working on the assessment of noncognitive skills. Jeff Allen is a statistician in the Research division at ACT. He specializes in longitudinal research linking test scores to educational outcomes and student growth models. Mary Ann Hanson is director of Career Transitions Research. She is involved in research and development for a wide variety of career- and behavior-related solutions across education and work. Abstract Research has shown that psychosocial factors (PSFs) have a positive impact on high school outcomes, including grades and persistence (e.g., Farrington et al., 2012). However, few longitudinal studies have examined the nature of these relationships. We report on a longitudinal study of middle school students followed through high school completion. We found that high school GPA mediates the effects of prior academic achievement, demographics, and most PSFs on on-time high school graduation. A measure of self-regulation had a significant direct effect on on-time graduation. The results underscore the importance of PSFs in predicting academic outcomes, even after accounting for prior achievement and demographics. Implications of examining PSFs early in students’ academic progression are discussed. Effects of psychosocial characteristics of middle school students on high school grades and on-time graduation Although the situation has improved in recent years, on-time high school graduation remains of major concern in the U.S., with over 20% of entering public high school students failing to earn a high school diploma in four years (Aud et al., 2013). In some states and communities, these rates exceed 50% of all entering 9th grade students. In the discussion that follows, we use the term “dropout” to refer to the situation where a student’s enrollment in high school is suspended before they earn a diploma. While on-time graduation is not the direct opposite of dropout, the two outcomes are closely related and the dropout literature is relevant for understanding on-time graduation. Over the past decade, research has shown that measuring critical psychosocial factors (PSFs; e.g., motivation, social engagement, self-regulation) can increase schools’ abilities to identify and intervene with students at risk of dropout or delayed graduation (e.g., Farrington et al., 2012; Zins, Bloodworth, Weissberg, & Walberg, 2004). As the dropout process begins well before students actually decide to leave high school (e.g., Rumberger & Lim, 2008), research into early indicators of dropout or delayed graduation is needed. Further, research should focus not only on academic indicators, but psychosocial indicators as well. Early Warning for Dropout Research has demonstrated that high school dropout can be predicted well before students enter high school. For example, in public schools in the Northeastern U.S., an early warning system to identify 6th grade students at risk to drop out in high school was created (Balfanz, Herzog, & Mac Iver, 2007; Neild, Balfanz, & Herzog, 2007). Indicators included grades, attendance, and disciplinary records. Together these indicators identified 60% of the students who did not graduate within one year of expected graduation. Further, several large-scale longitudinal studies have found that at ages 2, 6, 12, and 14, future high school dropouts were much more likely than graduates to have: parents who were divorced or separated; lower achievement test scores; and, higher scores on measures of behavioral problems (see Heckman, Humphries, & Kautz, 2014 for a review). This research clearly shows that academic performance and behavioral indicators measured during middle school can be effective predictors of