油脂周报：豆棕价差扩大头寸获利了结

五矿期货油脂周报豆棕价差扩大头寸获利了结20210703农产品组张利z han glb @wk jyq h.c om0 755-23 375 124F 300 354 9从业资格号：Z 001 509 9投资咨询号： CONTENTS 1 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结◆供应：MPOB数据显示，5月马棕产量157万吨，环比增2.84%，为连续第四个月增长。SPPOMA数据显示，6月1—30日马来西亚棕榈油单产减少4.5%，出油率增加0.31%，产量减少2.87%。最新的USDA的面积报告显示，今年美国农户种植的大豆面积为8755万英亩，低于报告前路透调查的市场预期8896万英亩。◆库存：MPOB数据显示，5月马棕库存157万吨，环比增加1.49%，增幅不及预期的6%。USDA数据显示，截至6月1日，美豆库存为7.67亿蒲式耳，处于六年最低水平。截至2021年6月29日，豆油港口库存74.51万吨，较前一周增3.59%。全国港口食用棕榈油总库存31.70万吨，较前一周降7.31%。◆进出口：MPOB数据显示，5月马棕出口127万吨，环比降6.01%。SGS数据显示，马来西亚6月1-30日棕榈油出口量环比增加10.8%。国内大豆到港量庞大，海关数据显示，5月大豆进口量高达960.7万吨，预计6-7月国内大豆月均到港量超1000万吨。◆需求：印度取消长达18个月的精炼棕榈油进口限制，允许年底之前进口精炼棕榈油，对产地棕榈油出口有所提振。 油脂基本面评估估值驱动基差进口利润马棕供需美豆供需国内供需国内库存数据（2021.7.2）P：1122元/吨Y：556元/吨OI：216元/吨马棕现货进口利润589.64元/吨SPPOMA：6月1-30日产量降2.87%。SGS：6月1-30日出口量环比增10.8%。USDA：新作库存8755万英亩，海关数据显示，5月大豆进口量960.7万吨。豆油港口库存：74.51万吨棕榈油港口库存：31.70万吨多空评分1-111-10简评基差高位，利多国内油脂。现货进口利润可观，利空国内油脂。产量不及预期，出口好转，利多马棕。低于路透调查的市场预期8896万英亩，利多美豆。大豆到港庞大，油厂高开机。库存整体偏低，尤其是棕榈油，但豆油有累库预期。小结USDA的面积报告显示，今年美国农户种植的大豆面积为8755万英亩，低于报告前路透调查的市场预期8896万英亩，受此影响美豆大幅上涨。SPPOMA数据显示，6月1—30日马来西亚棕榈油单产减少4.5%，出油率增加0.31%，产量减少2.87%。SGS数据显示，马来西亚6月1-30日棕榈油出口量环比增加10.8%。马棕产量不及预期，加之近期印度撤销精炼棕榈油的进口限制并下调进口关税，提振棕榈油市场。国内大豆到港量庞大，海关数据显示，5月大豆进口量高达960.7万吨。预计6-7月国内大豆月均到港量超1000万吨，油厂也将维持高压榨，豆油库存有累库预期，基差有走弱趋势，但国内盘面更多随成本波动。整体而言，受美豆及马棕影响，油脂仍处于偏强格局。基本面评估 交易策略建议交易策略建议策略类型操作建议盈亏比推荐周期核心驱动逻辑推荐等级首次提出时间单边暂无套利YP09扩大头寸获利了结2:15-8月从预期看，豆系基本面将长期优于棕榈基本面。★★★★☆四月提示关注 全球植物油平衡表资料来源：USDA，五矿期货研究中心年度期初库存产量进口量出口量国内消费量总供应量食品用量收获面积期末库存库存消费比07/0814.53128.7850.4053.85125.76194.5299.5814.7612.066.71%08/0914.92133.7954.3556.15130.66203.81103.3315.6413.387.16%09/1015.87140.8456.0457.91138.64214.17107.9516.4913.716.98%10/1116.68148.8558.1960.56145.55223.13110.1817.515.597.56%11/1219.50157.7961.7164.67152.15239.66115.9618.518.268.42%12/1323.08161.6265.5168.45159.15249.92120.8519.1921.729.54%13/1423.21171.8166.9470.26166.43262.26125.7520.1124.3710.30%14/1525.43177.0271.0576.54170.68273.58130.9420.8725.6310.37%15/1626.47176.5470.6273.77177.57273.97135.1221.9222.178.82%16/1722.51188.3876.9582.11183.22287.85139.1422.5922.518.48%17/1822.52198.3576.9981.13192.44297.86143.8623.3324.288.88%18/1924.28203.7082.8687.25199.14310.84146.7723.8124.448.53%19/2024.44207.0883.2286.77202.93314.74150.2824.425.058.65%20/2125.05207.6784.1286.96207.13316.84153.9924.7122.757.74%21/22*22.75216.1787.3190.91213.01326.23157.7824.9522.327.34% 全球棕榈油平衡表资料来源：USDA，五矿期货研究中心年度期初库存产量进口量出口量总供应量工业用量食品用量国内消费量期末库存库存消费比07/085.9941.0930.7332.2077.278.8529.4140.354.386.04%08/095.9544.0334.1234.7183.489.6332.0242.964.876.27%09/106.1845.9135.2135.5187.2510.0633.9345.045.446.75%10/116.3449.2436.6137.2991.1810.7334.5047.826.407.52%11/128.0552.5838.8439.8499.2012.4736.8650.477.518.32%12/139.3756.3842.0943.16107.9714.6540.1755.738.949.04%13/149.4259.1941.6443.23110.7116.2141.0357.309.559.50%14/159.6561.7844.7947.39116.3414.3043.2858.2210.069.53%15/1610.7458.9242.4243.87112.2916.3842.5259.388.748.46%16/178.8165.2546.4349.07120.4916.7244.0261.4110.019.06%17/1810.0170.5446.9248.83127.4719.7046.3966.7811.8610.26%18/1911.8674.1450.6551.91136.6422.7048.6272.0212.7110.26%19/2012.7172.747.6548.44133.0622.8448.3271.8512.7810.62%20/2112.7873.1749.1950.04135.1423.0849.9273.7311.379.19%21/22*11.3776.3850.9352.05138.6823.6751.175.511.138.73% 全球豆油平衡表资料来源：USDA，五矿期货研究中心年度期初库存产量进口量出口量总供应量压榨量贸易量工业用量食品用量国内消费量期末库存库存消费比07/083.7137.5410.3910.8851.64202.5821.275.0332.1337.683.096.36%08/093.3935.849.089.1848.31194.8218.265.0131.2036.043.106.86%09/103.0638.838.629.1050.51210.4817.725.9532.0738.303.116.56%10/113.3241.299.429.5854.03222.1919.007.1133.2640.753.707.35%11/123.8142.627.968.4754.39229.1916.438.3034.0942.043.887.68%12/134.1343.108.479.3655.70231.9717.837.2835.2142.593.767.24%13/143.8845.129.289.4658.28243.0518.748.3536.9945.213.616.60%14/153.8149.2010.0411.0963.05264.9521.138.3939.1947.884.076.90%15/164.3151.5611.6411.7767.51275.6623.419.0242.9352.073.675.75%16/173.7553.7210.9711.2468.44287.6722.219.6643.7253.413.795.86%17/183.9955.139.8610.5468.98294.9920.4010.4343.9454.593.845.90%18/193.9355.9810.7511.2470.66298.6721.9911.0444.0855.114.316.50%19/204.358.3611.512.3174.16311.523.8111.2945.9557.354.516.47%20/214.5160.4412.0512.5977322.0624.6411.4748.3459.914.516.22%21/22*4.5162.2512.0812.8278.84331.6924.912.7149.0761.894.145.54% 全球菜油平衡表资料来源：USDA，五矿期货研究中心年度期初库存产量进口量出口量总供应量食品用量国内消费量期末库存库存消费比07/080.8118.492.021.9021.8213.5318.300.834.11%08/091.1020.612.432.4324.9214.4220.311.155.06%09/101.4622.532.912.7527.6615.2522.601.244.89%10/112.1423.043.333.4228.9315.6723.271.264.72%11/122.2824.124.013.9731.0916.4323.681.746.29%12/133.3025.683.943.9532.6516.4924.304.4315.68%13/144.9427.213.823.8335.7917.7726.085.5418.52%14/156.2727.413.954.0737.6518.7727.046.5220.96%15/166.6527.344.124.1738.0919.8728.275.6617.45%16/175.6327.544.554.6337.7220.3228.894.2012.53%17/184.2027.924.824.8336.9320.2628.863.259.65%18/193.2527.715.175.2636.1220.0128.082.788.34%19/202.7828.015.795.8536.5819.9628.122.617.68%20/212.6128.896.146.1937.6520.1428.293.169.16%21/22*3.1629.195.986.0338.3220.7928.963.349.55% 棕榈油产业链图示棕榈果棕榈果肉棕榈果仁经过水煮