地产行业：2021年中国住宅地产行业信用展望

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 行业信用展望 2021年2月8日 住宅地产行业的信用展望为稳定。该展望体现了远东资信对中国住宅地产行业未来12个月基本信用状况的预期。 观点摘要 我们对住宅地产行业的展望为稳定，这一结论是基于对国内住宅需求保持平稳和该行业负债水平整体下降的预期而作出的。 在“房住不炒”的政策基调下，未来一年商品住宅需求将保持平稳。2020年疫情期间住宅市场“先抑后扬”，在经济刺激政策带动下全年销售面积实现了正增长，且增速有所加快。为了抑制部分地区楼市出现的过热现象，中央的调控政策逐渐加码，投机炒房行为将进一步减少，购房将更多地来自合理自住需求，住宅销售面积会稳中略降。相应的购房限贷政策不会整体放松，房贷利率不会明显降低。在限购限贷抑制需求的同时，部分区域核心城市继续吸引人口流入，其需求仍会保持增长。按照中央通过的“十四五”规划建议，未来要“租购并举、因城施策，促进房地产市场平稳健康发展”，商品住宅的需求总体将保持平稳。 房地产监管新规对房企财务杠杆的限制更加严格，住宅地产行业债券发行人的平均负债水平将下降。按照住建部和央行提出的“三道红线”要求，高负债房地产企业的债务融资将受限或被暂停。从2020年第三季度住宅地产行业债券发行人的财务数据看，大部分企业的负债水平仍较高，行业的流动性指标平均水平还出现了下降。对大部分企业来说，仍需要进一步去杠杆才能让财务指标不触及“红线”。2021年，监管新规将促使高杠杆经营的住宅地产企业降低负债比例，行业整体的杠杆和信用风险会下降。 然而，住宅地产行业也存在一些风险点，如房地产调控新政落地速度加快、中小房企面临的结构性风险、行业并购扩张导致竞争加剧等都将对行业信用风险产生影响，必须加以关注。 住宅地产行业总体稳定的展望与绝大多数发行人的评级展望也相一致。除个别已出现违约的房企外，稳定的住宅需求和更低的债务水平将保障大部分发行人在未来一年维持信用稳定。2021年中国住宅地产行业信用展望 作 者：申学峰 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Industry Outlook of China February 8th, 2021 Our outlook for the residential real estate industry is stable. This outlook expresses Fareast Credit’s expectations for the fundamental credit conditions in the residential real estate industry of China over the next 12 months. Summary of Opinions Our outlook for the residential real estate industry is stable, and the conclusion is based on our expectation of sustained demand for residential real estate and decline in the sector’s debt level. Under the policy that "housing is for living, not for speculation", demand for commercialized residential buildings will remain stable in the coming year. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the residential real estate experienced recession at first and returned to growth later. Driven by economic stimulus policies, the floor space of commercialized residential sold achieved growth, and the growth rate has accelerated. To prevent residential real estate market from overheating, the control policy became stricter gradually, thus speculative purchase of residential buildings will reduce and purchase for living purpose will take a larger portion, and floor space of residential buildings sold will decrease slightly. The corresponding housing purchase restrictions will not be relaxed overall, and housing loan interest rates will not significantly fall. While purchase and loan restrictions restrain the demand, core cities in some regions continue to attract population, and their demand will continue to grow. According to CPC proposals for formulating China's 14th five-year plan，both housing purchase and renting are encouraged, and city-specific policies are adopted, , promoting the stable and healthy development of real estate market, and the overall demand for commercialized residential buildings will remain stable. The new regulations on real estate have imposed stricter restrictions on the financial leverage of real estate companies, and the average debt level of bond issuers in the residential real estate industry will decline. According to the requirement of "three red lines" proposed by Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development (MOHURD) and People’s Bank of China (PBC), debt financing of real estate companies with heavy debt burden will be restricted or suspended. Judging from the financial data of bond issuers in residential real estate industry, most companies’ debt level are relatively high in the third quarter of 2020; furthermore, the liquidity of the industry declined on average. Most companies of residential real estate need to deleverage themselves to meet the requirement of “red lines”. In 2021, new regulations will force high-leveraged residential real estate companies to reduce debt ratios, and the industry's overall leverage and credit risk will decline. However, there are also some risks in residential real estate industry. For instance, the acceleration of the implementation of the new real estate control policies, the structural risks faced by small and medium-sized real estate enterprises, and the Residential Real Estate Industry Outlook Author: Shen Xuefeng E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn qRqNpMrMpMtMtNrOoPnNnR7NbP9PmOnNoMrQeRmMoMkPmMxPaQmNoRvPqMpRvPmRqM 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 February 8th, 2021 I