2021年中国航空运输行业信用展望

请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 行业信用展望 2021年1月12日 中国航空运输行业的信用展望为稳定。该展望体现了远东资信对中国航空运输行业未来12个月基本信用状况的预期。 观点摘要 我们对中国航空运输行业的展望为稳定，这一结论是基于对航空需求的预期、客座率走势的判断以及对该行业财务指标表现的权衡。 对航空客货运输需求的预期支撑了我们对航空运输行业未来12个月信用状况的稳定展望。虽然，目前国内和国际航线仍未完全恢复至疫情前水平，但是我们预计新冠肺炎疫苗的研发成功和推广使用将刺激2021年国际航线复苏甚至提升。我们预计2021年中国全年经济增速将在8%左右，因此商务出行需求将稳中提升。未来，人均收入的提高和消费升级的继续将刺激国内航空需求扩大；航空货运也将受益于线上消费的火热。 客座率的提升将为营业收入增长提供有力支撑。虽然受到新冠肺炎疫情的影响，2020年全行业客座率出现下降，但是随着国内疫情防控的常态化，国内航线客座率将稳步回升至疫情前水平；未来，疫苗的研发成功和大范围使用将刺激国际航线客座率回暖。国内、国际航线客座率的提升将拉动行业营业收入的增长。 从2020年前三个季度财务状况恢复趋势来看，未来12个月有望延续改善趋势。2020年前三季度，样本企业的财务指标出现不同程度的下降，但是，随着疫情得到控制和疫苗的加速接种，预计2021年，航空运输发行人的经营性现金流压力将得到缓解，毛利率和净利润水平或将会出现由负转正。此外，国内航空公司多为地方国企或央企背景，对企业的信用起到支撑作用。 然而，一些长期负面因素仍然存在。首先，疫情蔓延的不确定性将影响航空运输需求。其次，汇率和国际油价的不确定性也会影响航空企业的营业成本，进而影响净利润和盈利能力。 航空运输行业总体稳定的展望与大多数发行人的评级展望也相一致。总之，基于对航空运输需求、客座率回暖和财务指标的适度改善的判断，本文预计未来12个月，航空运输企业总体信用状况稳定。2021年中国航空运输行业信用展望 作 者：张妍 邮 箱：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Industry Outlook of China January 12th,2021 Our outlook for the air transport industry is stable. This outlook expresses Fareast Credit’s expectations for the fundamental credit conditions in the air transport industry over the next 12 months. Summary of Opinions Our outlook for the air transport industry is stable, reflecting our expectation of air transport demand, the judgment of passenger load factor trends, and the trade-off of the industry's financial metrics. Underpinning our stable view of the outlook for the air transport industry during the next 12 months is our expectation of demand for air passenger and cargo transportation. Although the current domestic and international routes have not fully recovered to the pre-COVID-19 levels, we expect that the successful development and promotion of the COVID-19 vaccines will stimulate the recovery or even increase of international routes in 2021. We predict that China’s GDP growth rate will be around 8% in 2021, so business travel demand will steadily increase. In the future, the increase in per capita income and the continued consumption upgrade will stimulate the expansion of domestic air transport demand, and air cargo demand will benefit from the booming of the online consumption. The increase in passenger load factor will drive the expansion of revenue. Although the passenger load factor of the entire industry in 2020 has declined due to the impact of the COVID-19, with the regular epidemic prevention and control, the passenger load factor of domestic routes will steadily rise to the level before the COVID-19; in the future, the successful development of vaccines and large-scale use will stimulate passenger load factor on international routes to be recovered. The increase in passenger load factor on domestic and international routes will drive the growth of industry revenue. Judging from the recovery trend of financial performance in the first three quarters of 2020, the improvement trend is expected to continue in the next 12 months. In the first three quarters of 2020, the financial indicators of the sample enterprises have declined to varying degrees. However, with the control of the COVID-19 and accelerated vaccination, it is expected that in 2021, air transport issuers’ operating cash flow pressure will be relieved, and gross profit margins and the level of net profit may change from negative to positive. In addition, domestic airlines are mostly controlled by local or central government, which supports the credit of the enterprises. However, some long-term negative factors still exist. First, the uncertainty of the spread of the COVID-19 will affect air transport demand. Secondly, the uncertainty of exchange rates and international oil prices will also affect the operating costs of air transport enterprises, which in turn affects net profits and profitability. Air Transport Industry Outlook Author: Zhang Yan E-mail：research@fecr.com.cn 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明 Industry Outlook of China January 12th,2021 The overall stable outlook for the air transport industry is consistent with the stable outlook for most of the bond issuers. In short, based on the demand for air transport, the increase in passenger load factor and the moderate improvement in financial indicators, this article predicts that the outlook for the credit condition in th