科创板询价报告之江苏北人

证券研究报告·科创板询价报告 证券研究报告·个股报告 华鑫证券·科创板询价报告 证券研究报告 主要财务指标（单位：百万元） 公司主营业务为提供工业机器人自动化、智能化的系统集成整体解决方案，主要涉及柔性自动化、智能化的工作站和生产线的研发、设计、生产、装配及销售。目前，公司的主要产品包括焊接用工业机器人系统集成、非焊接用工业机器人系统集成以及工装夹具等。公司未来将不断对现有产品进行升级并积极布局其他领域产品，拓展公司的主营业务。公司凭借较强的技术实力和及时周到的精准服务获得客户认可和良好的市场口碑，在汽车金属零部件柔性自动化焊接和高端装备制造业智能化焊接领域拥有突出的竞争优势。  机器人系统集成进入“进口替代”阶段。21世纪以来，为了实现工业机器人及相关产业加快升级，我国出台了一系列工业机器人支持政策，国内系统集成商逐渐进入市场。伴随着中国制造业的崛起以及智能制造的大力推进，国内系统集成商开始逐渐抢夺市场，进入“进口替代”的快速发展阶段。  汽车行业竞争加剧，技术革新带动机器人系统集成发展。近年来，由于受到汽车销量基数及宏观经济环境的影响，我国汽车销量出现负增长，2018年汽车销量为2,808.06万辆，同比下滑2.76%。各大车企为增加汽车销量抢夺市场，竞争更为激烈。此种竞争形势促使整车制造商不断加快新车型、新技术的推出与产业化。在此背景下，汽车零部件生产技术革新成为汽车零部件供应商满足整车厂商竞争需要的关键，从而带动工业机器人系统集成产业发展。  募投项目前景光明。本次募集资金扣除发行费用后计划投资于两个项目，分别为智能化生产线项目和研发中心项目，并补充公司流动资金需求，项目投资总额为36,202.88万元。智能化生产线项目预计达产后将为公司实现69,915万元的收入，新增净利润7,623.41万元。项目建成后将提高公司产品产能和市场规模，巩固公司在系统集成领域的竞争地位，为公司业绩持续增长打下坚实的基础。  我们预测公司2019-2021年实现归属母公司所有者净利润分别为4,952万元、5,601万元和6,338万元，按照发行后11,734万股计算，公司EPS分别为0.42元、0.48元和0.54元。随着国内国内制造业用工成本不断提升，无论下游景气度如何变化，人工替代趋势都不会变更，公司是国内工业机器人自动化、智能化的系统集成整体解决方案提供商，有望长期受 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 营业收入 413 480 567 658 （+/-） 64.5% 16.4% 18.1% 16.1% 营业利润 56 55 62 70 （+/-） 73.0% -3.2% 12.6% 13.6% 归属母公司净利润 48 50 56 63 （+/-） 42.0% 2.4% 13.1% 13.2% EPS（元） 0.55 0.42 0.48 0.54 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研发部 分析师：魏旭锟 执业证书编号：S1050518050001 电话：021-54967800 邮箱：weixk@cfsc.com.cn 华鑫证券有限责任公司 地址：上海市徐汇区肇嘉浜路750号 邮编：200030 电话：（8621）64339000 网址：http://www.cfsc.com.cn 2019年11月19日 机械 科创板询价报告之江苏北人（688218） 建议询价区间：[12.95，16.84]元/股 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明2 华鑫证券·科创板询价报告 益于行业的发展，公司业绩增长也具备持续性。因此我们建议采用PE相对估值法，选取的对比公司2019年平均市盈率为36.28倍，对应公司的股价应为15.24元/股，对应公司总市值为17.88亿元，建议公司询价区间为12.95-16.84元/股。  风险提示：1）汽车行业需求增速放缓；2）客户集中度较高的风险。 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明3 华鑫证券·科创板询价报告 目 录 一、公司概况 ···································································································································································· 4 1.公司简介 ··············································································································································································· 4 2.公司股权构成情况及融资历程 ············································································································································ 4 二、人工替代促国内自动化装备需求 ······························································································································ 5 1.机器人系统集成进入进口替代快速发展阶段 ···················································································································· 5 2.汽车企业谋求差异化竞争为机器人系统集成带来发展机遇 ···························································································· 6 三、公司占据系统集成一席之地，客户遍布知名厂商 ··································································································· 7 四、公司财务状况良好····················································································································································· 8 1.公司成长性优良 ···································································································································································· 8 2.盈利能力基本稳定 ································································································································································ 9 3.经营现金流有待改善 ···························································································································································· 9 五、公司募投项目 ···························································································································································· 9 六、公司主要竞争对手及同类公司估值 ························································································································ 10 1.同行业重点公司 ·································································································································································· 10 2.同行业重点公司估值比较 ·················································································································································· 11 七、公司估值及询价建议 ··············································································································································· 12 1. 假设条件············································································································································································ 12 2. 公司估值与询价建议 ························································································································································ 12 八、风险提示 ·································································································································································· 12 规范、专业、创新 请阅读最后一页重要免责声明4 华鑫证券·科创板询价报告 一、公司概况 1.公司简介 公司主营业务为提供工业机器人自动化、智能化的系统集成整体解决方案，主要涉及柔性自动化、智能化的工作站和生产线的研发、设计、生产