远洋地产： 上半年销售符合预期

1 of 1 遠洋地產遠洋地產遠洋地產遠洋地產 (3377337733773377.HK) 上半年銷售符合預期上半年銷售符合預期上半年銷售符合預期上半年銷售符合預期 Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Bloomberg ││││ Reuters ││││ POEMS 3377337733773377.HK ││││3377.HK ││││3377.HK 行業行業行業行業：：：：內地房地產內地房地產內地房地產內地房地產 Phillip Securities Research 12 Jul, 2013策略分析策略分析策略分析策略分析 評級：增持 收市價：4.07 目標價：4.80 投資概述投資概述投資概述投資概述 2013年上半年遠洋地產的合約銷售額達約178億元，同比上升30%，已完成全年350億目標的51%。6月份，遠洋地產銷售額約31億元，環比微升4%。銷售面積約22.1萬平方米，環比上升11%。銷售均價約13,800元/平方米，環比下跌7%，主要是由於產品結構不同所致。總體而言，2013年上半年遠洋地產的銷售表現良好，符合我們的預期。 經歷了2010年以來公司股權結構震盪、物業銷售區域佈局單一以及商業地產遲遲無法貢獻盈利等問題的困擾之後，遠洋地產終於在2012年得以復蘇，並在2013年能夠跟上同行業的增長步伐。區域分佈上，儘管北京的銷售比重逐漸下降，但北京、天津和大連為代表的環渤海灣地區的銷售比重占到8成，整體分散度有限。由於北京地區的房屋銷售價格上漲過快，北京市政府對於新房銷售許可的發放日趨嚴格且流程緩慢，我們認為，這將在一定程度影響遠洋地產在下半年的銷售進度，但對全年銷售目標的達成具備信心。 商業地產和養老地產是遠洋地產的業務多元化的探索。目前全國核心城市的商業地產的價格和租金漲幅巨大，對於實體行業的負面影響較大。因此，公司在一、二線發達城市核心地段審慎發展大型購物中心，無論是商業角度和財務角度都是務實的策略選擇。至於養老地產，目前遠洋地產正在北京亦莊遠洋天著內試點養老地產，以作為商業化探索樣本。公司正在探索的商業模式包括：一是以半護理為特點的養老模式，二是產權交易模式。鑒於養老產業的商業化問題複雜且需要大量的政策配套，我們目前很難對其養老地產的商業前景做出具體的判斷。 2012年末，遠洋地產的現金總計人民幣160億，債務總計323億，淨債務比率僅為39%，低於行業均值。我們認為，遠洋地產的財務安全邊際較高，公司在資本支出的慎重有助於其度過可能的流動性收緊階段。 鑒於公司平穩的銷售態勢以及行業未來半年所面臨的不確定性，我們給予遠洋地產“增持”的評級，未來12個月目標價為4.8港元，高出現價18%。 研究員 陳耕 chengeng@phillip.com.cn +8621 63512937-107 Sino-ocean Land Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research 12 Jul, 2013 2 of 2 Sino-ocean Land Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd Research 12 Jul, 2013 3 of 3 PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation GENERAL DISCLAIMER This publication is prepared by Phillip Securities (Hong Kong) Ltd (“Phillip Securities”). By receiving or reading this publication, you agree to be bound by the terms and limitations set out below. This publication shall not be reproduced in whole or in part, distributed or published by you for any purpose. Phillip Securities shall not be liable for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of material contained in this publication. The information contained in this publication has been obtained from public sources which Phillip Securities has no reason to believe are unreliable and any analysis, forecasts, projections, expectations and opinions (collectively the “Research”) contained in this publication are based on such information and are expressions of belief only. Phillip Securities has not verified this information and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made that such information or Research is accurate, complete or verified or should be relied upon as such. Any such information or Research contained in this publication is subject to change, and Phillip Securities shall not have any responsibility to maintain the information or Research made available or to supply any corrections, updates or releases in connection therewith. In no event will Phillip Securities be liable for any special, indirect, incidental or consequential damages which may be incurred from the use of the information or Research made available, even if it has been advised of the possibility of such damages. Any opinions, forecasts, assumptions, estimates, valuations and prices contained in this material are as of the date indicated and are subject to change at any time without prior notice. This material is intended for general circulation only and does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. The products mentioned in this material may not be suitable for all investors and a person receiving or reading this material should seek advice from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of such products, taking into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to invest in any of such products. This publication should not be relied upon as authoritative without further being subject to the recipient’s own independent verification and exercise of judgment. The fact that this publication has been made available constitutes neither a recommendation to enter into a particular transaction nor a representation that any product described in this material is suitable or appropriate for the recipient. Recipients should be aware that many of the products which may be described in this publication involve significant risks and may not be suitable for all investors, and that any decision to enter into transactions involving such products should not be made u