雅居乐地产：上半年销售目标达成率超4成,下半年销售前景逐步向好

Company ReportBuy (Prior: Buy) TP：HK$ 12.00 Current price：HK$10.00 AGILE PROPERTY(03383.HK) Thanks to the recovering house purchase demand in China’s major cities, Agile property holdings limited (Agile)’s house sale volume and revenue hit 190 thousand Sq.m and Rmb 2 billion in June, up 42% and 100% mom. Average selling price (ASP) for Agile maintained at favorable level, after the booming growth in 2H 2009. We see Agile’s profit margin was also expanded so for this year, as more middle – high end property products were sold in 1H 2010. FY 2010 ytd property sales in terms of Gross Floor Area (GFA) and income for Agile were 1.03 million Sq.m and Rmb 10.5 illion, representing a yoy change of -9.6% and 34.5% respectively. House sale recovering, financial status remain stable China Merchants Securities (HK) Stanley Wu +86-755-83295441 Wuxuan@cmschina.com.cn 30 Jul 2010 b Key data Achieved 43% of FY 2010 sales target Agile guide its FY 10 sales target at Rmb24.5bn (which excludes the unbooked sales of Rmb9.5bn as of end 2009), only about 43% of which has been locked in. This lockin rate falls largely in ‐ine with the sector average of 42%. HSI Index 21093.82HSCEI Index 11942.21S/O（mn） 35763473S/O (HK)（mn） l House sales may pick up in second half Despite the relatively low lockin ‐rate, we believe Agile should manage to register much stronger sales in 2H10 as the new sales launches of Hainan’s Galaxy, the Asian Games City, Agile Royal Mount Zhongshan, the Zhongshan Kuchong project and Zhongshan Zhangjiabian Land are scheduled for 2H10. We see the transaction volume will gradually pick up in the coming period. Meanwhile, house price may drop moderately because of rising new house supply. As a result of that, we believe Agile will reach its FY10 GFA sold target of 3.3 million Sq.m, but its contracts ales revenue may below its target by 8% due to ASP decline. Mkt cap (HK) (mn) 34727BVPS（HKD） 3.93Major share holder Holding (％)Chen Family Trust 62.29Free float 35.09Industry Share performance %1m 6m12mAbsolute return 21 1-4Relative return s 17 -1-5Decent financial position After the settlement of Usd 400mn senior notes, Agile has cash on hand around Rmb 4.5-5 billion and net gearing of about 50%-55%. The total land premium outstanding is only Rmb 1.3 billion. The inancing needs on Asia Game project should be handled by the JV project itself. -40-200204060Jul-09Nov-09Mar-10Jul-10(%)03383.HKHSI Index Source：Bloomberg f Maintain “Buy” with target price of HK$ 12.00 We revise up our target price for Agile to HK$ 12.00, based on a 20% discount to our estimated ending FY10 NAV/Share of HK$ 15.80. We rate Agile as a “Buy”, considering the recovering house sale will expand mainland developer’s valuation multiple. Financials (Rmb mln) 2007 Related research 2008 20092010E2011ERevenue 10,312 9,326 13,331 18,300 22,335 Growth (%) 54.5% -9.6% 42.9%37.3%22.0%Net income 2,103 5,467 1,865 2,983 3,769 Growth (%) 69.2% 160.0% -65.9%59.9%26.4%EPS(RMB) 0.56 1.46 0.52 0.83 1.05 DPS(RMB) 2.41 3.69 4.18 4.33 4.52 P/E(X) 16.0 6.0 16.8 10.5 8.3 P/B(X) 4.1 2.7 2.4 2.3 2.2 ROE (%) 23.3% 39.6% 12.4%19.1%23.1%Source: Company data, CMS (HK) estimate Please see important notice on the last page. 1 of 5 公司报告买入 雅居乐地产(03383.HK) (上次：买入) 雅居乐地产控股有限公司（下称公司）今年6月份签约销售物业约19万平方米，实现房屋合约销售额20亿元（人民币元，下同）。较5月份相比，公司的物业销售量及物业销售收入分别上升42%及100%，显示公司于6月份推出的一系列中高端住宅产品已被市场广为接受，这在一定程度上也反映出我国各主要城市的购房需求正在稳步恢复。据我们统计，各大房企6月份的销售业绩都有明显反弹，其中保利地产6月份签约金额63.4亿元，环比增长99%；万科6月份销售额近88亿元，环比增长71.6%。2010年上半年，公司共销售物业103万平方米，同比下降9.6%，而公司同期的房屋销售额则同比增长34.5%至105亿元，说明公司的物业销售均价在去年下半年强劲上涨后目前依未出现明显松动。此外，海南清水湾等高端物业于今年上半年销售占比的提高也是推高公司物业综合售价的主要原有之一。 已完成全年销售指标逾4成 公司2010年度的物业销售目标大概为245亿元，其中来自海南清水湾项目的销售收入预计为70亿元。按今年上半年公司105亿元的物业签约销售额计算，其物业销售目标达成率约43% 截至09年末，公司尚有95亿元左右的物业销售业绩未予确认。依次推算，公司目前未入账的物业销售收入已超过200亿元。 下半年物业销售前景逐步向好 海南清水湾项目仍将是公司未来几年的重要销售项目，公司今年近3成的物业签约销售业绩预计将来自该海南项目。2010年上半年，海南清水湾已实现物业销售额约30亿元，下半年销售目标为40亿元。至今年年底，海南清水湾项目将陆续推出93套别墅、3栋住宅公寓及10万平方米的高端住宅单位进行销售；其中93栋