中国利郎：10年业绩符合预期,开店计划放缓

Please see important notice on the last page. Company ReportCHINA LILANG LTD(01234.HK) China Lilang Ltd. (“Lilang” or the “Company”) announced FY2010 on 21st of March, 2010. Revenue was up 31.6% to RMB2.1bn, benefiting from the increase in ASP. Due to the product mix changed, the ASP rose by 23.2%YoY. Because of effective cost control from increase the proportion of subcontracting, both of gross margin & net margin was improved by 2.6 pct & 1.0 pct respectively. Basic EPS was RMB0.35, up by 13.0%YoY. The Board recommended a final dividend of RMB0.12 with a dividend payout ratio of about 49% for the year. Strong pricing ability & stable margin By product category, tops was the main product by sales & accounted for 75.3% of the total revenue. Sales of suits recorded the most significant sales growth amongst the others, surged by 66.7%. The ASP increased by 23.0%, due to the change in the product mix with sales of more products with higher added-value products, improved sales of higher-priced products & the transfer of the increased costs to selling prices. The Company said each 10% increase in the raw materials will lead 5% rise in the selling price. Base on our estimation of the possible increase in cotton price, we anticipate at least 10% increase in the products ASP with relatively stable margin. Store opening plan slows down Core brand “LILANZ” had 2805 retail stores at the end of 2010. To focus on stores operating ability enhancing, the stores expansion plan slow down to 200-250 per year. We think the Company wants to further differentiate brand “LILANZ” market positioning with higher-end brand image in the future. “L2” had 80 stores with the sales of RMB41.4mn for the year, accounting for 2% of the total revenue. Base on our estimation, we expect “L2” brand to have the total revenue of RMB160, RMB316 & RMB471 for each three years over 2011-2013, accounting for 6.2%, 9.7% & 11.6% of the total revenue correspondingly. Valuation By taking the average valuation on Menswear listed companies and HK apparel listed companies, we base on the CAGR of 25.4% & 22.4% from revenue & net profit growth over 2011-2013, and concluding a TP of HKD12.74 with a rating of “OUTPERFORM”, implying 25X2011PE. Financials RMB mn 2009 2010 2011E2012E2013ERevenue 1,560 2,053 2,5913,2464,066Growth(%) 37.4% 31.6% 26.2%25.3%25.3%Gross profit 551 778 989 1248 1568 Net profit 303 419 515633772Growth(%) 96.6% 38.2% 23.0%22.8%22.1%EPS（RMB） 0.31 0.35 0.43 0.53 0.64 Growth(%) 80.3% 13.0% 23.0%22.8%22.1%DPS（RMB） 0.15 0.21 0.26 0.31 0.38 P/E（X） 30.0 26.5 21.6 17.6 14.4 Source: Company data, CMS(HK) estimates OUTPERFORM (prior：OUTPERFORM) TP：HK$ 12.74 Current price：HK$11.28 China Merchants Securities (HK) Ivy Zhao 25310166 zhaox@cmschina.com.cn 22 Mar 2011 Key data HSI Index 22857.90HSCEI Indexov 12783.20S/O（mn） 1200.00S/O (HK)（mn） 1200.52Mkt cap (HK) (mn) 13589.88BVPS（HKD） 1.37Major share holder Holding (％)Wa ng’s brother 74.66Free float 32.00Industry ApparelShare performance %1m 6m12mAbsolute return -14-8Relative return 1 -19-14 -20-1001020Ma r- 10Ju l- 10Nov-1 0(%)01234.HKHSI Index Source：Bloomberg Related research 1. Initial Coverage, rate it as OUTPERFORM-20100421 2. Remain OUTPERFORM rating -20100824 The result in FY2011 was in line with our expectation 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 公司报告中国利郎(01234.HK) 中国利郎有限公司(“中国利郎”或者“公司”)21日公布其2011年业绩。公司销售额同比增长31.6%至20.5亿元(人民币，下同)，主要受益于产品价格的提升。2010年公司产品总平均批发价格同比上升了23.2%，由于产品结构的调整而导致价格上涨的因素较大。毛利率和净利率同比上升2.6和1.0个百分点，主要是公司在年内增加分包加工的占比，有效的控制了生产成本，进一步改善了公司的盈利能力。期末每股基本利润为0.12元，全年的股息派息率约为49%。 产品具有一定成本转嫁能力，毛利率可维持 按产品种类划分，上衣仍是公司主要销售类别，占总销售额的75.3%。西服套装增长最为显著的，增长幅度达66.7%。产品价格同比增长23.2%，主受益于产品结构的转变，高端产品销售占比的提升，及需要将成本上涨压力转嫁至下游消费者所致。公司表示如果原材料成本上涨10%左右，公司产品价格需提升5%左右覆盖成本上涨的压力。根据现在至年初棉花价格上涨幅度，我们预计公司产品总平均价格同比提升10%左右。毛利率维持平稳水平。 开店计划放缓 2010年底，公司主品牌“LILANZ”有零售店铺2805，净增加244间。未来品牌开店计划放缓，降至每年200-250家，以提升单店销售能力为主。我们认为公司有意差异化“LILANZ”的品牌形象，并逐渐将产品往中高端的细分市场上提升。“L2”品牌有店铺80家，实现销售收入约4140万元，约占公司总销售收入2%。我们预计 “L2”品牌2011年实现盈亏平衡，2011-2013三年销售额为1.6亿元、3.2亿元和4.8亿元，分别占当年总销售额的6.2%、9.7%和11.6%。 预测和估值 由于开店计划放缓及短期内“L2”品牌对于销售贡献小，我们下调盈利预测，预计公司2011-2013年的销售和利润年复合增长率为分别为25.3%和22.4%至40.7亿元和7.7亿元。我们得出一年目标价12.74港元，相当于201