ᭀ䇋䯙䇏义ⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ 1义 ⱒⱒⱒⱒ业业业业㾚㾚㾚㾚业业业业䗮䗮䗮䗮˄˄˄˄6市市6376市市6376市市6376市市637˅˖˅˖˅˖˅˖ 业业业业娱娱娱娱娱娱娱娱Ϯ㒽⬹ԢѢ乘ᳳϮ㒽⬹ԢѢ乘ᳳϮ㒽⬹ԢѢ乘ᳳϮ㒽⬹ԢѢ乘ᳳˈˈˈˈⴔⴔⴔⴔ ᠧ䗴ᠧ䗴ᠧ䗴ᠧ䗴 ಯಯಯಯሣሣሣሣစФᑇৄစФᑇৄစФᑇৄစФᑇৄ Ϯ㒽⬹ԢѢ乘ᳳϮ㒽⬹ԢѢ乘ᳳϮ㒽⬹ԢѢ乘ᳳϮ㒽⬹ԢѢ乘ᳳ个个个个性币引意ᑈ݀ৌᅲ⦄㧹Ϯᬊܹ性提小意操ғܗˈৠ↨䭓意币小币提化˗ᅲ⦄ᔦሲѢ↡݀ৌ㙵κⱘ߽ޔ⍺提小操操ғܗˈৠ↨䭓意引小引指化˗↣㙵ᬊⲞ币小提引ܗˈ⬹ԢѢ៥Ӏⱘ乘⌟DŽ个䌍⫼䭓䕗ᖿय़ԢϮ㒽䌍⫼䭓䕗ᖿय़ԢϮ㒽䌍⫼䭓䕗ᖿय़ԢϮ㒽䌍⫼䭓䕗ᖿय़ԢϮ㒽个个个个性币引意 ᑈˈ䫔ଂ䌍⫼ᄣ⧚䌍⫼߿ߚৠ↨䭓 操操小指提化或映小或或化ˈय़ԢϮ㒽DŽ⬅Ѣ真P致营Ϯגࡵᢧሩࠄⱘऎඳˈ素致致Ϯࡵ໘Ѣᓔথ䰊↉˗Ўֱᣕ⫼᠋㉬ᗻˈ݀ৌ䗖ᑺ䖯㸠⠜ᴗ㡖Ⳃݙᆍⱘ䞛䌁ᡩܹˈⳌ↨এᑈৠᳳݙᆍᡩܹ᳝᠔ࡴˈדⷁᳳПݙ䌍⫼⍜㗫䕗DŽ个鼠ࡼѦ㘨䭓䖙䗳鼠ࡼѦ㘨䭓䖙䗳鼠ࡼѦ㘨䭓䖙䗳鼠ࡼѦ㘨䭓䖙䗳ˈˈˈˈ㞾䌌ऎᠧ䗴ᆊᒁ␌៣စФᑇৄ㞾䌌ऎᠧ䗴ᆊᒁ␌៣စФᑇৄ㞾䌌ऎᠧ䗴ᆊᒁ␌៣စФᑇৄ㞾䌌ऎᠧ䗴ᆊᒁ␌៣စФᑇৄ个个个个性币引意ᑈˈ݀ৌᓔথњᴎ⬉㾚ǃᴎ䯙䇏ǃࡼ⓿ㄝḌᖗѻકDŽ݊Ёˈᴎ⬉㾚ϮࡵϢ䖤㧹ଚ䞛পড়ǃ㞾Џ㒣㧹ᑇৄϸ辵䖤㧹ᓣDŽࠄ性币引意ᑈᑩˈ݀ৌᢹ᳝引提币币ϛᴎ⬉㾚ᬊ䌍⫼᠋ˈ݀ৌ鼠ࡼѦ㘨㔥ᬊܹৠ↨䭓提意化DŽ݀ৌ㒻㓁خĀಯሣā˄⬉㾚ǃP点ǃᴎǃPa金˅ᮄၦԧϮࡵˈᑊ䗤ℹᔶ៤ᑇৄᑓਞᬜᑨˈ݀ৌਞᳳݙᑓਞᬊܹৠ↨䭓䍙䖛引操操化DŽ个性币引意ᑈˈ݀ৌѢᖂ䕃Ϟ⍋㞾䌌ऎ㒘ᓎড়䌘݀ৌˈ䖯ݯĀᆊᒁ␌៣စФāѻϮDŽ݀ৌ䗮䖛ᖂ䕃x速oxᑇৄˈܼ⧗ᦤկढ䇁ݙᆍ᳡ࡵˈᰃ᭛࣪䍄ߎএⱘᅲ䏉㗙DŽ个Ⲝ߽乘⌟Ⲝ߽乘⌟Ⲝ߽乘⌟Ⲝ߽乘⌟个个个个性币引或 ᑈ媒性币引提 ᑈ݀ৌᴀ↣㙵ᬊⲞ߿ߚЎ 币小操提 ܗˈ币小未币ܗˈ引小币映ܗˈᇍᑨᔧࠡ意意小币或ܗⱘ㙵ӋˈᏖⲜ⥛߿ߚЎ或意סˈ意操סˈ意币סˈ㓈ᣕĀᣕᣕᣕᣕā䆘㑻DŽ个个个个亢䰽ᦤ冫亢䰽ᦤ冫亢䰽ᦤ冫亢䰽ᦤ冫个个个个ᬓㄪব࣪ⱘ亢䰽˗ᴎ乊ⲦᏖഎⱘ䖯ܹຕ൦䕗Ԣˈ䆒կᑨଚⱘゲѝ亢䰽˗ড়乍Ⳃথሩ㓧᜶DŽ 6市市63数主视6市市63数主视6市市63数主视6市市63数主视⮭⮭⮭⮭主主主主㻵㻵㻵㻵主主主主䕉䕉䕉䕉评评评评䃳㏖䃳㏖䃳㏖䃳㏖喚喚喚喚ᠰᠰᠰᠰ主主主主ͪ㺰ᢝͪ㺰ᢝͪ㺰ᢝͪ㺰ᢝ主主主主㗐⺗Цᵫ㐌ᄨ㗐⺗Цᵫ㐌ᄨ㗐⺗Цᵫ㐌ᄨ㗐⺗Цᵫ㐌ᄨ////Ⱗᄨጱ౩㶗⣟Ⱗᄨጱ౩㶗⣟Ⱗᄨጱ౩㶗⣟Ⱗᄨጱ౩㶗⣟喈喈喈喈%%%%喉喉喉喉主主主主1Ͼ᳜Ͼ᳜Ͼ᳜Ͼ᳜ 3Ͼ᳜Ͼ᳜Ͼ᳜Ͼ᳜ 12Ͼ᳜Ͼ᳜Ͼ᳜Ͼ᳜ 0.15/0.07 0.30/0.07 0.66/0.16 ᘏ㙵ᴀ 1113736075.000 ⌕䗮A㙵 1113736075.000 䖥3᳜᮹ഛ៤Ѹ䞣 7791962.922 ͪ㺰㗐͋ͪ㺰㗐͋ͪ㺰㗐͋ͪ㺰㗐͋主主主主Ϟ⍋κᮍӴၦ䲚ಶ᳝䰤݀ৌϞ⍋κᮍӴၦ䲚ಶ᳝䰤݀ৌϞ⍋κᮍӴၦ䲚ಶ᳝䰤݀ৌϞ⍋κᮍӴၦ䲚ಶ᳝䰤݀ৌ 41.920621 Ϟ⍋䆮䋱ᡩ䌘䆶᳝䰤Ϟ⍋䆮䋱ᡩ䌘䆶᳝䰤Ϟ⍋䆮䋱ᡩ䌘䆶᳝䰤Ϟ⍋䆮䋱ᡩ䌘䆶᳝䰤݀ৌৌ݀ৌ݀ৌ݀ 2.679457 ৠᮍ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌৠᮍ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌৠᮍ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌৠᮍ㙵ӑ᳝䰤݀ৌ 2.511598 㗐Ц㶗⣟㗐Ц㶗⣟㗐Ц㶗⣟㗐Ц㶗⣟主ᔰߗधڛᔰߗधڛᔰߗधڛᔰ主ߗधڛ主主主2014-04-10 ⱒ㾚䗮(600637)এᑈᮄၦԧᘏ⌕䞣 ֱᣕݙϔԡ 2014-03-31 “ᇣ᭛ᑓ”ড়ᑊ㒜㨑ഄ κᮍᯢ⦴(600832)ǃⱒ㾚䗮(600637)Ꮦഎ࣪䞡㒘ᅮ䇗 㓪䕥˖᷇⍋㣅业⬉䆱˖市3平平娱66市市63期7业ᠻϮ䆕к˖股市4市市指平平市2市市市4业业业业业ਞ᮹ᳳ˖2市平4娱市4娱平平业᯳ᳳѨ ᭀ䇋䯙䇏义ⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ 2义 䰘䰘䰘䰘柳柳柳柳业业业业ζζζζ1111ġġġġᄗγדᄗγדᄗγדᄗγד表表表表 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E Ϯ㒽㸼⦄Ϯ㒽㸼⦄Ϯ㒽㸼⦄Ϯ㒽㸼⦄个个个个个个个个个个个个个个个个个个个个个个个个㧹Ϯᬊܹ 2,027.7 2,637.4 3,618.8 4,621.1 6,124.0 EBITDA 735.8 1,049.3 1,239.4 1,481.7 1,904.5 EBIT 506.6 665.2 886.9 1,053.0 1,457.0 ᠔ᕫ䌍⫼/߽⍺ᘏ乱 15.3% 14.9% 15.0% 15.0% 25.0% ⍺߽ޔ 497.8 661.5 823.1 979.8 1,172.5 䋶ࡵ䌍⫼ (20.8) (30.8) (36.0) (45.7) (56.9) 㵡䌘㔎ষ 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Ҭᙃ؎ࡵড়䅵 1.9 234.2 234.2 234.2 234.2 㙵κᴗⲞড়䅵 3,142.7 3,881.4 4,492.4 5,220.5 6,091.4 ᡩܹ䌘ᴀ 3,144.5 4,115.7 4,726.6 5,454.7 6,325.6 ϡ⦄䞥ⱘᡩܹ䌘ᴀ 1,186.6 1,881.7 1,761.2 1,925.9 1,865.7 䌘ѻᘏ䅵 3,882.9 5,149.2 6,128.7 7,296.1 8,659.9 㒣㧹⌏ࡼ⦄䞥⌕˄CFO˅ 0.0 747.2 1,325.4 1,332.2 1,666.2 ៤䭓ᗻᣛᷛ៤䭓ᗻᣛᷛ៤䭓ᗻᣛᷛ៤䭓ᗻᣛᷛ 㧹Ϯᬊܹ䭓⥛ 51.8% 30.1% 37.2% 27.7% 32.5% EBITDA䭓⥛ 42.4% 42.6% 18.1% 19.6% 28.5% EBIT䭓⥛ 46.2% 31.3% 33.3% 18.7% 38.4% ⍺䭓⥛߽ޔ 40.0% 32.9% 24.4% 19.0% 19.7% Ⲝ߽ᗻᣛᷛⲜ߽ᗻᣛᷛⲜ߽ᗻᣛᷛⲜ߽ᗻᣛᷛ ⥛߽↯ 40.7% 44.1% 42.3% 40.7% 41.8% EBITDA/㧹Ϯᬊܹ 36.3% 39.8% 34.2% 32.1% 31.1% EBIT/㧹Ϯᬊܹ 25.0% 25.2% 24.5% 22.8% 23.8% ٓ؎㛑ᣛᷛٓ؎㛑ᣛᷛٓ؎㛑ᣛᷛٓ؎㛑ᣛᷛ ⌕ࡼ↨⥛ 3.3 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 䗳ࡼ↨⥛ 3.1 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 ⦄䞥↨⥛ 2.7 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 EBITDA/䋶ࡵ䌍⫼ (35.4) (34.1) (34.4) (32.4) (33.5) CFO/Ҭᙃ؎ࡵড়䅵 -- -- -- -- -- ᴴᴚ↨⥛ᴴᴚ↨⥛ᴴᴚ↨⥛ᴴᴚ↨⥛ ؎ࡵᴗⲞ↨⥛ 0.1% 6.0% 5.2% 4.5% 3.8% 䌘ѻ䋳؎⥛ 19.1% 24.6% 26.7% 28.4% 29.7% ᴰ䙺ߚᵤᴰ䙺ߚᵤᴰ䙺ߚᵤᴰ䙺ߚᵤ ⍺⥛߽ޔ 24.5% 25.1% 22.7% 21.2% 19.1% ᘏ䌘ѻ਼䕀⥛ 57.9% 58.4% 64.2% 68.8% 76.8% ᘏ䌘ѻಲ⥛˄ROA˅ 14.2% 14.6% 14.6% 14.6% 14.7% ᑇഛᘏ䌘ѻ/ᑇഛ㙵κᴗⲞ 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 ޔ䌘ѻᬊⲞ⥛˄ROE˅ 17.1% 18.8% 19.7% 20.2% 20.7% ᭀ䇋䯙䇏义ⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ 3义 ζζζζ2222ġġġġͱζ၇Љͱζ၇Љͱζ၇Љͱζ၇Љ业业业业 2012A 2013A 2014E 2015E 2016E ⍺㸼߽⍺㸼߽⍺㸼߽߽⍺㸼˄˄˄˄ⱒϛܗܗⱒϛܗⱒϛⱒϛܗ˅˅˅˅ 㧹Ϯᬊܹ 2,027.7 2,637.4 3,618.8 4,621.1 6,124.0 㧹Ϯ៤ᴀ 1,129.4 1,425.9 2,014.8 2,652.7 3,445.3 㧹Ϯ䞥ঞ䰘ࡴ 72.5 48.2 72.4 88.5 119.9 䫔ଂ䌍⫼ 82.5 146.6 192.3 230.2 323.6 ᄣ⧚䌍⫼ 236.8 351.5 452.4 596.8 778.2 EBIT 506.6 665.2 886.9 1,053.0 1,457.0 ᡬᮻ 35.6 59.7 64.7 75.9 85.6 ᨞䫔 193.6 324.4 287.8 352.9 361.9 EBITDA 735.8 1,049.3 1,239.4 1,481.7 1,904.5 䋶ࡵ䌍⫼ (20.8) (30.8)(36.0)(45.7)(56.9)߽⍺ᘏ乱 583.3 770.7 968.3 1,152.1 1,563.4 ᔧᳳ᠔ᕫ 89.0 115.0 145.2 172.4 390.8 ⍺߽ޔ 497.8 661.5 823.1 979.8 1,172.5 ᔦሲѢ↡݀ৌ㙵κⱘ߽ޔ⍺ 516.5 677.4 848.4 1,006.6 1,206.6 ↣㙵ᬊⲞ 0.46 0.61 0.76 0.90 1.08 䌘ѻ䋳؎㸼䌘ѻ䋳؎㸼䌘ѻ䋳؎㸼䌘ѻ䋳؎㸼˄˄˄˄ⱒϛܗܗⱒϛܗⱒϛⱒϛܗ˅˅˅˅ 䋻Ꮥ䌘䞥 1,943.1 2,231.7 2,963.2 3,526.6 4,457.7 ᑨᬊℒ乍 229.9 658.1 656.7 995.9 1,215.5 ݊Ҫᑨᬊℒ 15.8 17.7 54.3 69.3 61.2 ᄬ䋻 128.2 143.3 212.7 261.3 353.1 ⌕ࡼ䌘ѻড়䅵 2,370.8 3,100.1 3,968.7 4,948.5 6,220.1 ᅮ䌘ѻ 357.9 425.3 523.5 613.7 692.6 ᓎᎹ 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 ᮴ᔶ䌘ѻ 143.7 417.5 430.5 528.3 542.0 䭓ᳳᕙ᨞䌍⫼ 2.4 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.4 䌘ѻᘏ䅵 3,882.9 5,149.2 6,128.7 7,296.1 8,659.9 ᑨҬℒ乍 576.0 862.6 1,128.3 1,512.1 1,894.9 乘ᬊℒ乍 66.9 76.7 131.0 157.6 214.3 ᑨѸ䌍 79.9 77.3 125.9 154.8 208.1 䋳؎ড়䅵 741.8 1,270.2 1,638.7 2,077.9 2,570.9 㙵ᴀঞ䌘ᴀ݀鳥 2,202.4 2,203.3 2,203.3 2,203.3 2,203.3 ⬭ᄬᬊⲞ 884.0 1,519.5 2,155.8 2,910.7 3,815.7 ᔦሲѢ↡݀ৌ㙵κᴗⲞড়䅵 3,086.3 3,722.7 4,359.0 5,114.0 6,019.0 䋳؎㙵κᴗⲞᘏ䅵 3,882.9 5,149.2 6,128.7 7,296.1 8,659.9 ⦄䞥⌕䞣㸼⦄䞥⌕䞣㸼⦄䞥⌕䞣㸼⦄䞥⌕䞣㸼˄˄˄˄ⱒϛܗܗⱒϛܗⱒϛⱒϛܗ˅˅˅˅ ⍺߽ޔ 823.1 979.8 1,172.5 㒣㧹⌏ࡼ⦄䞥⌕ড়䅵 1,325.4 1,332.2 1,666.2 ᡩ䌘⌏ࡼ⦄䞥⌕ড়䅵 (417.9)(562.8)(490.3)㵡䌘⌏ࡼ⦄䞥⌕ড়䅵 (176.1)(206.0)(244.8)ޔ⦄䞥⌕ 731.5 563.4 931.1 ᑈᑩ⦄䞥 2,963.23,526.6 4,457.7 ᭀ䇋䯙䇏义ⱘܡ䋷ᴵℒ 4义 个ǏǏǏǏᏖഎᣛ᭄䆘㑻Ꮦഎᣛ᭄䆘㑻Ꮦഎᣛ᭄䆘㑻Ꮦഎᣛ᭄䆘㑻ǐǐǐǐ业业业业ⳟ——ᴹ提Ͼ᳜ݙϞ䆕㓐ᣛϞछᐙᑺ䖒ࠄ䍙䖛性币化 个ⳟᑇ——ᴹ提Ͼ