中国风电行业：基本面强劲,处于顺风期

1See the last page of this report for important disclosuresSector Research China Wind Power Strong Fundamental Tail“wind” Wind direction has changed to tailwinds since 2013 and is set to be stronger ahead. We have identified 5 positive catalysts that will further improve the sector fundamentals going forward. We overweight the sector and initiate BUY ratings on Longyuan and Huaneng Renewables, and initiate NEUTRAL rating on Datang Renewables. Continuous release of supportive policies The sector will continue be supported by favorable government policies, such as the roll out of the final version of RPS this year, which will improve the sector fundamentals further. With 17‐20GW of new capacity added each year in the next 5 years, wind electricity generation will enjoy CAGR of 18% from 2013‐2015 and 16% from 2015‐2020. Moreover, utilization hours will increase significantly on the back of lower curtailment rates nationwide due to better grid connections. Lots of room for “catch‐up” growth Compared with other countries, China still has huge potential for wind power growth despite current global leader position. China wind operators generated only 2% (100.8 bn kWH) of the total electricity in 2012, less than the global average of 2.5%, and far less than other developed countries such as Denmark (30%), Portugal (20%), Spain (18%), EU (7%), and United States (3.5%). In terms of installed capacity per capita, China ranks only 36th, while in terms of installed capacity per land area, China again lags behind others and ranks only 27th. We believe China has huge potential for wind power growth compared with other countries. Urgency for clean energy driven by intensifying smog problems Hazardous smog problems hit every corner of China last year. We believe the government will accelerate the installation of clean energy to lower the PM 2.5 and PM 10 targets in major cities. Actions to be taken include lower coal consumption of the total national energy mix from 66.8% in 2012 to 65% in 2017. This policy is inline with the government’s intention to bring up wind power energy to total electricity supplied from the current 2% to over 3% in 2015 and 5% in 2020. Industry development to expedite The delegation of approval authority to the local government levels from the central government for wind power investment projects and certain AC grids should shorten the time for project approvals and speed up grid development thereby accelerating the reduction of the curtailment problem. The completion of 4 UHV AC grids and 7 UHV DC lines by 2015 and 10 UHV AV grids and 27 UHV DC lines by 2020 will gradually eliminate the curtailment issue, thus improving the overall electricity transmission capacity and increasing the average utilization hours in the sector. Figure 1: Sector Valuation Summary Price(2014‐2‐20)FY13FY14FY13FY14 Target Price Stock BBG HKDPE(x)PE(x)Yield(%)Yield(%)HKD Upside(%)RatingChina Longyuan Power 916 HK 9.2218.514.81.11.412.5 35.6BUYHuaneng Renewables Corp 958 HK 2.9919.414.41.01.44.3 43.8BUYChina Datang Corp Renewable 1798 HK 1.5423.314.30.91.41.7 10.4NEUTRAL Source: Guosen Securities(HK) China / Environmental & Clean Energy21 February 2014 OVERWEIGHTChina: Grid‐connected wind power capacity growth Source: CNREC, Guosen Securities (HK) Raymond Ip SFC CE No.: AMB348 852‐2899‐3142 Raymond.ip@guosen.com.hk 48 63 78 94 111 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%0204060801001202011201220132014E2015EGWCumulative grid‐connected wind power capacityGrowth rate (RHS) 22行业报告 研究报告仅代表分析员个人观点，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 中国风电行业 基本面强劲,处于顺风期 行业风向已在 2013 年转变为顺风，且风势预期将进一步加强。我们找到将推动行业基本面不断改善的 5 个利好因素。我们对风电行业首予“超配”的评级，对龙源电力及华能新能源首予“买入”的评级，及对大唐新能源首予“中性”的评级。 利好政策相继出臺 有利的政府政策将继续为行业带来支持，例如可再生能源配额制的最终版本在今年发佈，此政策将令行业基本面进一步改善。随着未来5年每年新增17-20GW发电量，风力发电量在2013-2015的複合年增长率将达到18%，在2015-2020 年将达到 16%。此外，由于电网连接增强令限电率降低，发电小时数将显着增加。 「追赶性」增长存在很大空间 与其他国家相比，儘管中国目前已经佔据全球领先地位，但其风电增长仍然存在巨大空间。在 2012 年，中国风电发电量仅佔总发电量的 2%（1,008 亿千瓦时），低于2.5%的全球平均水平，亦远低于丹麦（30%）、葡萄牙（20%）、西班牙（18%）、欧盟（7%）及美国（3.5%）等其他发达国家。在人均装机容量方面，中国仅位列第 36 位，而在地均装机容量方面，中国亦再次落后，仅列第27位。与其他国家相比，我们认为中国的风电增长仍然存在巨大空间。 雾霾问题愈演愈烈令人们更为渴求清洁能源 危害人体的雾霾问题在去年扩散到了中国的每一个角落，我们认为政府将加快清洁能源的装机速度，以降低各大城市的 PM 2.5 及 PM 10 目标。将採取的行动包括将煤炭在国家能源消耗中的比例从2012年的66.8%降低至2017年的65%。此项政策亦与政府将风电能源在供电总量中的比例从目前的 2%提高到2015年的超过3%以及2020年的5%的计划相符。 行业发展将会提速 中央政府将风电投资项目及若干交流电网审批权下放至地方政府，应可缩短项目审批的时间并加快电网发展，从而令限电问题进一步减少。在 2015 年之前完成的 4 个特高压交流电网及 7 条特高压直流线路以及在 2020 年之前完成的 10 个特高压交流电网及 27 条特高压直流线路，将可逐渐根除限电问题，进而提升总体的电力输送能力，提高行业的平均发电小时数。 行业概览 股价 FY13 FY14 FY13 FY14 目标价 股票 代码 (2014-02-20) (港币) 市盈率 (x)市盈率 (x)股息率(%) 股息率(%) (港币) 上升空间(%) 评级中国龙源电力 916 HK 9.22 18.5 14.8 1.1 1.4 12.5 35.6 买入华能新能源 958 HK 2.99 19.4 14.4 1.0 1.4 4.3 43.8 买入大唐新能源 1798 HK 1.54 23.3 14.3 0.9 1.4 1.7 10.4 中性 资料来源：国信证券(香港) 环保及清洁能源 2014年02月21日 超配 中国：累计并网风电装机容量 资料来源：国家可再生能源中心，国信