DB Today -Global/Macro：Monday 6th July 2015

Deutsche Bank Markets Research Global Periodical DB Today - Global/Macro Date 6 July 2015 Monday 6th July 2015 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1. MCI (P) 124/04/2015. Greg Poole Equity Focus (+1) 212 250-9902 greg.poole@db.com Amy Wei Research Analyst (+1) 212 250-5574 amy.tan@db.com Mairead Smith Equity Focus (+44) 20 754-71054 mairead.smith@db.com John McNamara Equity Focus (+1) 212 250-4727 john.mcnamara@db.com MACRO HIGHLIGHTS Global Strategy - db140 weekender - Stuart Kirk This week’s job report delivered the odd message that 56,000 fewer Americans took up 223,000 more jobs in June. In effect, the number of people employed fell even as businesses added to payrolls. Indeed, over the past year the increase in workers has trailed the 3m cumulative gain in payrolls by nearly half a million. How come? Two main factors help explain the difference. First, the number of self-employed (captured in employment numbers but not in payrolls) fell 267,000. That reduction points to a stronger labour market as studies reveal self-employment is counter-cyclical with economic conditions. Second, the number of multiple jobholders increased 170,000 – these add to payrolls but not necessarily to employed people. Weak wages aside, more multiple jobholders is yet another sign of plentiful job availability. The markets’ disappointment with the employment report could well be misplaced. Details on page 9 Global Strategy- Special Report - Francis Yared The Greek referendum result, a resounding win for the 'No', is a negative outcome from a market perspective as the probability of Grexit has materially increased. The vote has strengthened the position of the Greek government but does not solve the two constraints it faces: (a) a rapidly deteriorating economy and (b) the lack of mandate to leave the euro. The creditors and the ECB have to adapt to the fact that the current Greek government will continue to conduct the negotiations for now. Details on page 10 Global Strategy- Special Report - George Saravelos The range and probability of unpredictable outcomes to the Greek crisis has again materially increased this evening. Credibility and trust between Europe and Greece has been seriously damaged. Negotiations around an ESM program will be even more difficult. Over the next few hours, both sides' willingness to re-start negotiations and under what conditions remains the most important next step. Beyond that, it is the increasing pressure on the Greek economy and people via a frozen banking system and capital controls that will drive the speed of developments. Decisions have to be taken soon on whether to return to the path of negotiations or consider the alternative of a Eurozone exit. Details on page 11 GLOBAL MARKET WRAP INDEX Close 1D YTD %Chg %Chg S&P 500 2076.78 -0.03 0.9 NASDAQ 5009.21 -0.08 5.8 DOW 17730.11 -0.16 -0.5 DJ STOXX 50 3388.68 -1.54 7.7 FTSE 100 INDEX 6539.67 -0.70 -0.4 HANG SENG INDEX 25288.53 -2.98 7.1 MSCI Asia ex Japan 584.49 -0.60 3.7 BRAZIL BOVESPA 52519.41 -1.11 5.0 RTS-2 INDEX 788.31 -1.16 19.0 COMMODITY PRICES COMMODITIES Close 1D YTD %Chg %Chg West Texas 56.93 -0.05 6.9 Brent 58.76 -1.29 5.4 CRB 224.55 0.22 -2.4 Copper 255.10 -3.17 -9.7 Gold (Spot) 1164.80 -0.32 -1.7 Alum. (LME) 1710.00 -0.81 -7.7 Baltic Dry 805.00 1.39 2.9 FOREIGN EXCHANGE PRICES FOREX (vs US$) Close 1D YTD %Chg %Chg HK$ 7.75 0.00 0.0 EUR 1.11 -0.26 -8.4 JPY 122.63 0.13 -2.3 GBP 1.56 0.05 0.0 Source: Bloomberg Finance Lp DERIVATIVES Current %-ile Value Rank SPX 3M Mat ATM-Strike Imp Vol 14.76 76.4 SPX 3M Mat 90%-110% IV Skew 11.57 86.8 SPX 3M Mat Realized Vol 10.10 28.6 Source: Bloomberg Finance Lp, CREDIT Credit Close 1D YTD %Chg %Chg CDX.NA.IG 67.90 0.00 2.4 ITRX.Europe 78.88 8.05 25.7 CDX.NA.HY 106.62 0.01 0.4 ITRAX.XOVER 342.13 5.65 -0.8 SOVX.WE 26.00 2.02 -10.3 Source: Bloomberg Finance Lp 6 July 2015 DB Today - Global/Macro Page 2 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc. MACRO HIGHLIGHTS Europe - Special Report - Mark Wall we map possible post-referendum scenarios. As it was written before the referendum took place, we assess the likely developments in both a YES and NO victory in Part 1 and Part 2 respectively. Part 1 – NO victory - there are four ma