iPad显著衰退且无iPhone订单不利2015营运功能，新竞争者将分食2016年后iPhone潜在商机

˟͡ 04, 2015 ࡁտშ৭: http://research.kgi.com Powered by EFA Platform 1 જၗՀາ ICᄦౄĆέ៉! ᙉ༄ (4966.TW/4966 TT) iPadព඾਽ੜͷ൑iPhoneࢎಏ̙Ӏ2015ѐᒉྻજਕĂາᚮ۰ۋ૟̶ࢴ2016ޢѐiPhoneሕдથ፟ ੈिࢋࢦ ԧࣇᄮࠎᙉ༄Ξਕࢬᓜ˭Е߄ጼͷ̙Ӏܕഇ۵ᆊܑனĈ(1) ࿰Ҥ2015ѐiPad΍ఱ૟ព඾਽ੜ30%ࡗҌ44~45Mă(2) ᙉ༄̫ѐ̪൑ڱซˢiPhoneֻᑕᙥĂӈܮд2016ѐซˢĂ˵ࢬᓜߊѣֻᑕથ༄ᖠ (RSPćRenesas SP Drivers Inc) ͽγາᚮ۰ۋ̶ࢴࢎಏĂᆧ୹iPhoneϏֽሕд੒ᚥ̙ቁّؠĄ ҂ณ˯ࢗЯ৵Ăԧࣇ˭አᙉ༄2015ѐᒉќᄃՏ۵࠳ዶ15.3%Ҍ23.6%Ҍ63.5ᆆ̮ᄃ17̮Ă૟ԸྤෞඈϤĶ޺ѣķአࢫҌĶࢫҲ۵޺ķĂ֭૟ϫᇾᆊҋ304̮አࢫҌ238̮Ăѩϫᇾᆊ ̃ॲፂ౶ૄ࿰Ҥ2015Տ۵࠳ዶ17̮۞14ࢺώৈֽͧ҃Ą ෞኢ̶̈́ژ 2015ѐiPad΍ఱณព඾ѐ਽ੜ30%Ă̙Ӏ2015ѐᒉќᄃᒔӀܑனĄԧࣇ࿰ീ2015ѐiPad΍ఱณѐ਽ੜ30%Ҍ44~45MĂࠎ።ѐֽѐ΍ఱ਽ੜ಼ޘ౵̂۰Ąξಞٙഇޞ۞12.9Ň iPadЯϠயॡมᅍ߇ؼൺഇ̰၆΍ఱณ੒ᚥ̙̂Ă҃ᖞ፟჌Я৿ͻ୭͘ᑕϡܳ߇ዚड़ڍѣࢨĄ ξಞ၆iPhoneࢎಏ࿅ٺሄ៍Ą҂ณזฟ൴ॡ඀Ăԧࣇᄮࠎᙉ༄̫ѐ̪൑ڱซˢiPhoneֻᑕᙥĂӈܮ౵ԣਕд2016ѐซˢĂAppleࠎ̶೸າซˢ۰дֻᑕ˯۞̙ቁؠࢲᐍĂ߇ᙉ༄˵૟ࢬᓜ༄ᖠͽγ۞າᚮ۰ۋ̶ࢴࢎಏĂᆧ୹iPhoneϏֽሕд੒ᚥ۞̙ቁّؠĄ ξಞ၆ܧApple NB eDPצĂ۵ᆊ̪ࢨѣޘڦᙯAppleࢎಏត̼ᇆᜩྵ̂Ąԧࣇ࿰ഇᙉ༄۞ܧApple NB eDP΍ఱᔵਕјܜĂҭξಞΚѣதᄃᒔӀӮ̙тApple Mac eDP˭ĂͷNBܧ߇Ăܜξಞ̏ઃͤјApple NB eDPࢎಏ၆ώৈͧᑒӄѣࢨĄ Ըྤޙᛉ ז҂ณiPad 2015ѐ΍ఱព඾ѐ਽ੜĂͷξಞ၆iPhoneԧ߇ሄ៍Ăٺಏ࿅ࢎࣇ˭አᙉ༄2015ѐᒉќᄃՏ۵࠳ዶ15.3%Ҍ23.6%Ҍ63.5ᆆ̮ᄃ17̮Ă૟ԸྤෞඈϤĶ޺ѣķአࢫҌĶࢫҲ۵޺ķĂ֭૟ϫᇾᆊҋ304̮አࢫҌ238̮Ăѩϫᇾᆊ ̃ॲፂ౶ૄ࿰Ҥ2015Տ۵࠳ዶ17̮۞14ࢺώৈֽͧ҃Ą Ըྤࢲᐍ ᛁڍາயݡ࿬௡І৿ఱٕξಞତޘצ̙т࿰ഇĄ۵޺ҲࢫࢫĆአ ќሹᆊ4 February 2015 318.0 12࣎͡ϫᇾᆊ (NT$) 238.0 ࢫአ (%) 21.7 ˭฀۩ม (%) 25.2 ൏ᕇ̰ट ז҂ณiPad 2015ѐ΍ఱព඾ѐ਽ੜĂͷξಞ၆iPhoneࢎಏ࿅ٺሄ៍Ă߇ԧࣇ˭አᙉ༄2015ѐᒉќᄃՏ۵࠳ዶ15.3%Ҍ23.6%Ҍ63.5ᆆ̮ᄃ17̮Ă૟ԸྤෞඈϤĶ޺ѣķአࢫҌĶࢫҲ۵޺ķĂ֭૟ϫᇾᆊҋ304̮አࢫҌ238̮Ăѩϫᇾᆊ ̃ॲፂ౶ૄ࿰Ҥ2015Տ۵࠳ዶ17̮۞14ࢺώৈֽͧ҃Ą ܑྤफ़ٽΣ ξࣃ : (NT$bn/US$mn) 24.00 / 760 ߹఼дγ۵ᇴ (Ѻ༱۵ ) : 75.46 γྤ޺ѣ۵ᇴ (Ѻ༱۵) : 0 3M πӮјΣณ (Ѻ༱۵) : 1.08 52ฉ۵ᆊ (Ҳ \ ੼) (NT$): 208.5 –420.0 ۵ᆊܑன (%) 3M 6M 12M ඗၆ܑன 8.2 -12.8 47.2 னܑ၆࠹ 4.1 -13.1 36.6 Տ۵࠳ዶ NT$Q1Q2Q3Q420130.66A1.58A2.33A4.52A20143.45A3.72A5.11A4.01F20153.35F3.68F4.83F5.18F ۵ᆊဦ 86106126146166186206180230280330380430480收盤相對台灣加權指數(右邊)24681002-1404-1406-1408-1410-1412-14ྤफ़ֽ໚ĈTEJ ⻸ځో 886 2 2181 8742 mingchi.kuo@kgi.com ࢋࢦҺయᓏځĂྎ֍౵௣ࢱ! ͹ࢋੑચᇴፂ̈́Ҥࣃ!Dec-11A Dec-12A Dec-13A Dec-14FDec-15Fᒉຽќˢ!)OU%Ѻ༱*2,3304,7814,2126,2246,349ᒉຽͨӀ!)OU%Ѻ༱*1,1182,4571,8322,5872,577ᒉຽӀৈ!)OU%Ѻ༱*5411,5197611,3491,428ඁޢஐӀ!)OU%Ѻ༱*4531,2856791,2171,273Տ۵࠳ዶ!)OU%*8.8524.849.0916.2817.04Տ۵۵Ӏ!)OU%*3.503.502.825.055.29Տ۵࠳ዶјܜத(58.0%)180.7%(63.4%)79.1%4.7%ώৈͧ!)y*35.912.835.019.518.7۵ᆊஐࣃͧ!)y*7.35.05.94.43.4FW0FCJUEB!)y*25.68.825.413.611.6ஐ࢑ๅͧதNet cashNet cashNet cashNet cashNe t cashതӀத1.1%1.1%0.9%1.6%1.7%۵ڌᝋৈಡ࿌த33.9%46.4%18.6%26.0%20.7% ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ̳Φྤफ़Ă౶ૄ έ៉ ᙉ༄ ˟͡ 04, 2015 ࡁտშ৭: http://research.kgi.com 2 ဦ 1: ̳Φໄڶ ဦ 2: έ៉ዚ઴ຽᒻ ᒉќ௡јĂѺ̶ͧ ٺᙉ༄2005ѐ11͡నςࡻٺᛳฟતཏफĂ͹ࢋଂְ੼ిੈཱི็Ꮾ̬ࢬ̈́ពϯ೿̝ͯࡁ൴ăనࢍ̈́ዚ઴Ăࠎέ៉͌ᇴICనࢍ̳Φѣਕ˧೩ֻDP/eDP T-CONఢॾயݡĂߏಷˢёeDP ॡԔଠטጡ۞Б஧ᅳጱᇄથĄϫٺ݈έ៉̈́ࢶപనѣ̶̳Φ૞యயݡዚ઴გநĄΩ࡚ٺ઼ΐэۣ֐јς100%޺ѣ̝ᖼԸྤ̳ΦĂГ౅࿅ྍ̳ΦᖼԸྤјς˯ঔᙉ༄Ăଂְயݡనࢍฟ൴ᄃԫఙڇચ͚೯Ą ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ౶ૄ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ౶ૄ ဦ 3: ؞ᒉќˢ ဦ 4: Տ۵࠳Ӏ ᒉຽќˢĂѺ༱̮ Տ۵࠳ӀĂ̮ 1,612 1,348 1,410 1,770 1,696 1,353 1,428 1,763 02004006008001,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0004Q131Q142Q143Q144Q14F1Q15F2Q15F3Q15F 4.52 3.45 3.72 5.11 4.01 3.35 3.68 4.83 0.01.02.03.04.05.06.04Q131Q142Q143Q144Q14F1Q15F2Q15F3Q15Fྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ౶ૄ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ౶ૄ ဦ 5: ͨӀத ဦ 6: ώৈͧ ͨӀதĂѺ̶ͧ ۵ᆊĂ̮ĞνคğćώৈͧĂࢺĞΠคğ 41.1% 41.5% 41.5% 41.7% 41.6% 41.4% 40.7% 40.3% 40%40%41%41%42%42%4Q131Q142Q143Q144Q14F1Q15F2Q15F3Q15F ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ౶ૄ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ౶ૄ ဦ 7: ᒉ業Ӏማத ဦ 8: ۵ᆊஐࣃͧ ᒉຽӀማதĂѺ̶ͧ ۵ᆊĂ̮Ğνคğć۵ᆊஐࣃͧĂࢺĞΠคğ 23.4% 21.1% 20.6% 22.9% 21.7% 21.5% 22.0% 22.6% 19%20%20%21%21%22%22%23%23%24%24%4Q131Q142Q143Q144Q14F1Q15F2Q15F3Q15F ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ౶ૄ ྤफ़ֽ໚Ĉ౶ૄ 2014Fڍᛁڍᛁܧ29712015Fڍᛁڍᛁܧ376350100150200250300350400450500Oct-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-1510.0x15.0x20.0x25.0x30.0x35.0x5.0x100150200250300350400450500Oct-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-151.5x2.5x3.5x4.5x5.5x6.5x7.5x έ៉ ᙉ༄ ˟͡ 04, 2015 ࡁտშ৭: http://research.kgi.com 3 ܑຫৈ؞Mar-14A Jun-14A Sep-14A Dec-14F Mar-15F Jun-15F Sep-15F Dec-15F Dec-13A Dec-14F Dec-15Fຫৈܑ!!)OU%Ѻ༱*ᒉຽќˢ!1,3481,4101,7701,6961,3531,4281,7631,8054,2126,2246,349ᒉຽјώ!(789)(825)(1,032)(990)(793)(847)(1,053)(1,080)(2,380)(3,637)(3,772)ᒉຽͨӀ!5595857387055605817107261,8322,5872,577ᒉຽ෱ϡ!(274)(294)(332)(337)(269)(267)(312)(301)(1,070)(1,238)(1,150)ᒉຽӀৈ!2852904063682913143984247611,3491,428Զᖞ!(10)(9)(10)(13)(12)(12)(12)(12)(34)(42)(49)ᝊ೩!(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(1)(2)(3)(2)FCJUEB!2953014163823043274114377981,3941,479Ӏिќˢ!00- 21111224Ըྤќˢ!0!۵Ӏќˢ!- - - - - - - - - - - ׎΁ᒉຽγќˢ!1122- - - - - 224- ᓁᒉຽγќˢ!1 1222 1111 4274Ӏि෱ϡ!- - - - - - - - - - - Ըྤຫε!- - - - - - - - - - - ׎΁ᒉຽγ෱ϡ!- - - (1)(5)(3)(1)(1)(6)(1)(9)ᓁᒉຽγ෱ϡ!- - - (1)(5)(3)(1)(1)(6)(1)(9)ඁ݈৷ৈ!2862924283692873133984247601,3751,423ٙ଀ඁ෱ϡ\Ӏৈ^!(29)(14)(46)(69)(37)(37)(37)(37)(80)(158)(149)͌ᇴ۵ڌຫৈ!- - - - - - - - - - - !৷ৈޢඁ݈૱ีϫܧ2582783822992502753613876791,2171,273ܧ૱ีϫ!(0)(0)- -