因盈利增长稳健而重申买入评级

2015年2月11日 中国：汽车 全球投资研究 44 威孚高科A/B (000581.SZ/200581.SZ)：因盈利增长稳健而重申买入评级 投资机会 我们重申威孚高科A股的买入评级，并重申强力买入B股，因我们上调了预测，我们将基于市净率-净资产回报率的12个月目标价从人民币32.12元/39.82港元上调至人民币39.94元/39.83港元，隐含的潜在上行空间为40%/38%。我们认为B股流动性紧张可能抑制了B股估值的扩张空间，因此我们对B股应用较A股20%的折让。我们将2014-2017年每股盈利预测调整了+1%/3%/3%/4%，以计入以下因素： 1) 重型/轻型类别高压共轨/后处理产品加速渗透； 2) 威孚-博世合资公司选择性催化还原喷射系统的潜在本地化生产； 3) 因缺乏具体的产品监管，后处理产品售价下降； 4) 由于排放标准升级和客户倾向于选择威孚-博世合资公司的产品，传统业务（例如Verteiler泵）进一步萎缩。 推动因素 2014年全年业绩强劲；新排放标准严格执行。除了可能会在2015年年中启动的深港通外，我们认为海外投资者可能从B股转向A股，因为A股的流动性状况（4000万美元）要好于B股（200万美元）。 估值 我们将2014-2017年每股盈利预测调整了1%/3%/3%/4%以反映上述变化。我们仍采用与全球同业一致的市净率-净资产回报率估值法。我们对市净率-净资产回报率隐含估值采用20%的B-A股折让，这一折让水平是2014年1月以来威孚自身B-A折让的中值。我们调整后的威孚A股/B股目标价为人民币39.94元/39.83港元（原为人民币32.12元/39.82港元）。我们重申对A股的买入评级，并重申强力买入B股。威孚A股/B股当前股价对应12.9倍/10.5倍的2015年预期市盈率，而全球技术性部件同业为15.2倍。 主要风险 欧IV标准的监管要求/实施不确定性；传统业务的收缩速度快于预期；新业务扩张慢于预期。 GrowthReturns *MultipleVolatilityVolatilityMultipleReturns *GrowthInvestment ProfileLowHighPercentile20th40th60th80th100th* Returns = Return on Capital For a complete description of the investment profile measures please refer to the disclosure section of this document.Weifu High-Technology Group (B) (200581.SZ)Asia Pacific Autos & Autoparts Peer Group AverageKey dataCurrentPrice (HK$)28.8912 month price target (HK$)39.83Market cap (HK$ mn / US$ mn)29,467.8 / 3,800.4Foreign ownership (%)--12/1312/14E12/15E12/16EEPS (Rmb)1.091.582.212.78EPS growth (%)21.645.839.725.5EPS (diluted) (Rmb)1.091.582.212.78EPS (basic pre-ex) (Rmb)1.091.582.212.78P/E (X)15.614.710.58.4P/B (X)1.82.21.91.6EV/EBITDA (X)19.423.917.313.4Dividend yield (%)1.81.41.93.0ROE (%)12.115.819.120.6CROCI (%)15.616.618.919.98008509009501,0001,0501,1001,1501,2001,25022232425262728293031Feb-14May-14Aug-14Nov-14Price performance chartWeifu High-Technology Group (B) (L)Shenzhen B Index (R)Share price performance (%)3 month6 month12 monthAbsolute(1.2)10.86.1Rel. to Shenzhen B Index(11.9)(3.1)(17.2)Source: Company data, Goldman Sachs Research estimates, FactSet. Price as of 2/09/2015 close. 2015年2月11日 中国：汽车 全球投资研究 45 威孚高科(200581.SZ)：财务概要 Profit model (Rmb mn)12/1312/14E12/15E12/16EBalance sheet (Rmb mn)12/1312/14E12/15E12/16ETotal revenue5,589.37,130.29,823.812,960.8Cash & equivalents2,447.62,267.12,918.73,649.4Cost of goods sold(4,017.4)(5,222.6)(7,280.9)(9,617.2)Accounts receivable2,223.13,081.54,227.05,415.3SG&A(765.4)(969.7)(1,277.1)(1,749.7)Inventory986.81,283.41,881.52,299.0R&D--------Other current assets1,840.31,840.31,840.31,840.3Other operating profit/(expense)0.00.00.00.0Total current assets7,497.88,472.310,867.613,204.0EBITDA806.5937.91,265.81,593.8Net PP&E1,670.52,069.72,149.62,284.3Depreciation & amortization(184.9)(220.7)(228.7)(242.2)Net intangibles362.1348.1334.2320.3EBIT621.6717.21,037.11,351.6Total investments3,410.94,042.74,801.15,687.7Interest income80.978.572.793.6Other long-term assets132.9132.9132.9132.9Interest expense(23.0)(38.8)(42.8)(46.8)Total assets13,074.215,065.818,285.421,629.2Income/(loss) from uncons. subs.549.21,007.71,407.41,726.3Others28.629.629.629.6Accounts payable1,902.52,474.33,627.54,432.3Pretax profits1,257.31,794.22,504.13,154.4Short-term debt399.5449.5499.5549.5Income tax(103.0)(118.4)(164.5)(214.2)Other current liabilities454.3471.3599.5856.1Minorities(46.1)(60.3)(83.4)(108.8)Total current liabilities2,756.33,395.14,726.45,837.9Long-term debt60.060.060.060.0Net income pre-preferred dividends1,108.21,615.52,256.22,831.4Other long-term liabilities260.3260.3260.3260.3Preferred dividends0.00.00.00.0Total long-term liabilities320.3320.3320.3320.3Net income (pre-exceptionals)1,108.21,615.52,256.22,831.4Total liabilities3,076.63,715.45,046.76,158.2Post-tax exceptionals0.00.00.00.0Net income1,108.21,615.52,256.22,831.4Preferred shares0.00.00.00.0Total common equity9,600.810,893.212,698.114,821.6EPS (basic, pre-except) (Rmb)1.091.582.212.78Minority interest396.9457.2540.6649.4EPS (basic, post-except) (Rmb)1.091.582.212.78EPS (diluted, post-except) (Rmb)1.091.582.212.78Total liabilities & equity13,074.215,065.818,285.421,629.2DPS (Rmb)0.300.320.440.69Dividend payout ratio (%)27.620.020.025.0BVPS (Rmb)9.4110.6812.4514.53Free cash flow yield (%)2.0(1.2)1.11.2Growth & margins (%)12/1312/14E12/15E12/16ERatios12/1312/14E12/15E12/16ESales growth11.427.637.831.9CROCI (%)15.616.618.919.9EBITDA growth9.916.335.025.9ROE (%)12.115.819.120.6EBIT growth8.115.444.630.3ROA (%)9.211.513.514.2Net income growth24.645.839.725.5ROACE (%)15.318.722.624.9EPS growth21.645.839.725.5Inventory days79.379.379.379.3Gross margin28.126.825.925.8Receivables days135.8135.8135.8135.8EBITDA margin14.413.212.912.3Payable days152.9152.9152.9152.9EBIT margin11.110.110.610.4Net debt/equity (%)(19.9)(15.5)(17.8)(19.6)Interest cover - EBIT (X)NMNMNMNMCash flow statement (Rmb mn)12/1312/14E12/15E12/16EValuation12/1312/14E12/15E12/16ENet income pre-preferred dividends1,108.21,615.52,256.22,831.4D&A add-back184.9220.7228.7242.2P/E (analyst) (X)15.614.710.58.4Minorities interests add-back46.160.383.4108.8P/B (X)1.82.21.91.6N