亚太石油与天然气：伯恩斯坦能源：让石油流动

Bernstein Energy: Let the oil flow The US-Iran MOU (see link) is a constructive first step toward reopening flowsthrough the Strait of Hormuz, but uncertainty remains high.Operational detailsare still unclear, including the timing of vessel returns, availability and pricing of war-riskinsurance, and safety protocols for transiting ships. Minesweeping progress and oversight Neil Beveridge, Ph.D.+852 2123 2648neil.beveridge@bernsteinsg.comBrian Ho, CFA+852 2123 2615brian.ho@bernsteinsg.com Kelvin Yuan, Ph.D., CFA+852 2123 2612kelvin.yuan@bernsteinsg.com Although execution risk remains, both sides have clear incentives to de-escalate. Forthe US, easing geopolitical tensions and stabilising oil prices ahead of midterm electionsis politically important. On the Iranian side, the war is increasingly costly, and a deal offersa path to restore oil exports, access frozen assets, and stabilise the domestic economy.Critically, an agreement also supports regime security, allowing the leadership and IRGC to The oil market has already absorbed c.1bn bbls of supply shock through inventories.We estimate a cumulative drawdown of ~1bn bbl globally, spanning ~300mmbbls fromSPR, ~450mmbbls from China inventories, ~140mmbbls oil-on-water, and the balance We expect normalisation to take around six months.This reflects the time needed forminesweeping activities, vessel repositioning, insurance repricing, and rebuilding of portand loading schedules. In addition, tanker availability and backlog clearing could slow the By 2027, we expect the market to shift into a ~2.8mmbbl/d (c.1bn bbls) surplus,although we anticipate much of this will be absorbed by inventory restocking.This ispremised on oil demand returning to normal of c.106MMbls/d next year and UAE growingto 5MMbls/d of supply by year end 2027. Following the recent drawdowns, buyers are Oil prices should remain supported near term in the $80–90/bbl range in 2026 and2027.Brent has averaged ~$87/bbl YTD, and we expect prices to stay close to $80-90/bbl this year amid tight inventories and gradual supply recovery. Looking ahead, we forecast~$78/bbl in 2027, with a stronger 1H and softer 2H profile. Longer term, we anchor at ~ BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS The MOU between the US and Iran is a positive step towards normalization of oil flows, but plenty of risks lie ahead and wesuspect there will be some twists and turns to come. Even if the agreement results in a permanent reopening of the Hormuz,it will take months for oil flows to get back to normal. As such we expect inventories will continue to draw in the short term.With oil prices touching US$80/bbl, markets are expecting a normalization of flows sooner rather than later. We expect themarket will remain under supplied through to the end of 3Q26 and only becoming balanced by 4Q26. While the market could beoversupplied next year, particularly if the UAE seeks to raise production to 5MMbls/d, inventories will need to be replenished.Since the start of this crisis, roughly 1bn barrels has been lost from inventories which would require an additional 3MMbls/d to DETAILS Near-term oil prices are primarily driven by supply and demand. The ~1bn bbl global stock draw has effectively tightenedthe market leaving inventories at extremely low levels. This creates a strong floor for prices, as any incremental recoveryin flows initially goes toward restocking rather than satisfying incremental demand, keeping near term balances tight. Weestimate a cumulative drawdown of ~1bn bbl globally, spanning ~300mmbbls from SPR, ~450mmbbls from China inventories,~140mmbbls oil-on-water, and the balance from commercial stocks. This significant drawdown reinforces the importance ofrestocking once supply flows stabilise. We expect normalisation to take around six months. This reflects the time needed for OECD inventories remain the key anchor for prices. Oil prices should remain supported near term in the $80-90/bbl rangein 2026 and 2027. Brent has averaged ~$87/bbl YTD, and we expect prices to stay close to $90/bbl this year amid tightinventories and gradual supply recovery. Looking ahead, we forecast ~$78/bbl in 2027, with a stronger 1H and softer 2Hprofile. Longer term, we anchor at ~$75/bbl. OPEC SUPPLY OPEC seaborne exports fell by ~14MMbbls/d at the peak of the disruption as Strait of Hormuz flows collapsed, forcing Gulfproducers to curtail output. With reopening underway, exports should recover, but not immediately. Logistics, insurance, tankeravailability, and minesweeping progress will likely constrain the pace of normalisation. As a result, supply recovery is likely to be The historical scatter plot of OPEC production versus seaborne exports shows an R-squared of c.0.85, indicating a very tightstatistical relationship between the two series. The strength and stability of this give us confidence that current movements 13MMbls/d, we expect production will be about 20MMbls/d which is down 8-9MMbls/d from February.