2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Report

Findings from the GBD 2021 Study Global Burdenof Disease 2021 Findings from the GBD 2021 Study This booklet was prepared by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) through core fundingfrom the Gates Foundation. The views expressed are those of the authors. The contents of this publication This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 UnportedLicense. To view a copy of this license, please visithttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/.For any usage that falls outside of these license restrictions, please contact IHME Global Engagement Citation: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME).Global Burden of Disease 2021:Findings from the GBD 2021 Study. Seattle, WA: IHME, 2024. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation3980 15th Ave NESeattle WA 98195 To request copies of this report, pleasecontactIHME:Telephone:+1-206-897-2800 Contents 5Introduction7Glossary of terms8Mortality, life expectancy, and population10Fertility forecasts and their implications for population growth12Causesofdeath:examiningeffectsonlifeexpectancy Introduction theglobal burden of diseases,injuries, Despite the challenges presented by current globalthreats, including antimicrobial resistance and climatechange,the GBD 2021 study offers a cautiouslyoptimisticoutlook for the future of global health,advocating for evidence-based strategies to mitigaterisks and enhance health outcomes. It predicts thatglobal life expectancy will increase by 4.6 years in riskfactors study(gbd) 2021examines healthtrends worldwide. The study, which leverages 328,938data sources, reveals health disparities across age, Aworrisomefindingisthestaggeringglobalreductionin life expectancy by 1.6 years between 2019 and2021 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with the mostsignificantdecreases seen in subnational locationssuchas Mexico City,KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopoprovincesin South Africa,and countries includingPeru and Bolivia. Despite the devastating impact of Thestudy also explores demographic trends,including the global fertility transition leading to mostcountries reaching below-replacement fertility levels by2100, or fewer than 2.1 children per person who couldgive birth, raising concerns about population aging andthe need for ethical immigration policies and protection Glossary of terms Mortality, life expectancy, and population What’s new in this study? Highlights New details about locations hit hard by the COVID-19pandemic: Mexico City, KwaZulu-Natal and Limpopo First GBD update to examine the COVID-19 pandemic. Incorporated thousands of new data points from sourcesincluding vital registration systems, sample vital The COVID-19 pandemic caused the most severe dropsin life expectancy seen in 50+ years. Used improved methods. Encouragingly, child mortality continued to drop during Rates of population growth are declining inmost countries. While global mortality rates rose sharply amid the COVID-19pandemic, child mortality continued to fall. Starkdifferencesinthenumberofdeathsthatoccurinchildren Proportion of child deaths by GBDsuper-region, 2021 All-age mortality and mortality for children underage 5 globally, 1990–2021 Fertility forecasts and their implications forpopulation growth What’s new in this study? Highlights Most countries will experience below-replacement*levels offertility by mid-century. Innovative, more accurate forecasting methods grounded inreal-world evidence. Researchers anticipate a massive shifting of births fromhigh-income countries to low-income countries. Study incorporated hundreds of new data points from surveys,censuses, and vital and sample registration. Unless countries facilitate ethical immigration, populationsare expected to contract in areas where fertility is below 2.1 Pro-natal alternative scenario for policymakers in countrieswith low fertility (seeTable 2 in studyfor country results). Increasing support for parents and caregivers could preventultra-low fertility. Total fertility rate, 1950–2100, by GBD super-region and for the globe By 2100, more than half of all babies will be born in sub-Saharan Africa, primarily in Western and Eastern sub-Saharan Africa. Only six countries are projected to experience fertility rates above replacement levels (2.1 children per person who could give birth) by 2100. Causesofdeath:examiningeffectsonlife expectancy What’s new in this study? Highlights First study to compare deaths from COVID-19 to deaths fromother causes globally. Global life expectancy increased by 6.2 years since 1990,largely thanks to: lower mortality rates for diarrhea and lower respiratoryinfections. Linksspecificcausesofdeathtochangesinlifeexpectancy. Utilized hundreds of new data sources and improvedstatistical methods. lower mortality rates in ages over 55 for stroke, cancers,and ischemic heart disease. Added 12 new causes of death and more detailed age groups. COVID-19 derailed health improvements in