Spotify 2030：有声书和播客的超级粉丝机会能否与音乐一样丰富（或更丰富）？

+1 917 344 8434ian.moore@bernsteinsg.comNosher Ali Khan+1 917 344 8578 U.S. Entertainment Rating Price Target 625.00 USD SPOT Spotify 2030: Could the superfan opportunities in audiobooks &podcasts be as rich as in music (or richer)? Yesterday, Spotify hosted its highly anticipated investor presentation. 2030 financial targets- mid-teens revenue growth, 35-40% 5Y GMs (40%+ long-term), and 20%+ operatingmargins - met our expectations, and the stock rose +13% on the day. In our view, managementlaid out a highly compelling superfan product roadmap across music, audiobooks, andpodcasts. During the presentation, Spotify announced an AI licensing agreement withUniversal Music (covered by Christophe Cherblanc), representing the first deal of its kind Close Date21 May 2026SPOT Close Price (USD)489.93Price Target (USD)625.00Upside/(Downside)28%52-Week Range785.00/405.00SPX7,445.72FYEDecDiv YieldNAMarket Cap (USD) (M)100,844EV (USD) (M)78,541 In the near term (i.e. 2026/27), we expect the audiobook superfan to be the mostimpactful to ARPU and gross profit.Audiobooks+ has already proven the power-lawthesis (Exhibit 2) at scale, with 1M+ users of the add-on in less than a year, with eachdelivering LTVs that are multiples of premium-only users through higher spend and betterretention. We believe unmet demand beyond the existing offering affords audiobooks with In 2030 & beyond, however, we see the music superfan overtaking audiobooks todrive the highest sustained LTV.Covers, remixes, and other generative features underpin asolid near-term runway (the next phase of music engagement, not human displacement), butthe UMG deal is the tip of the iceberg when it comes to AI-enabled music monetization. Wesee a runway to expand licensing to additional labels and potentially expand the offering tofull-generation experiences (if label/artist buy-in and user demand materialize). We believe Investment Implications With our long-term expectations aligned with management’s updated targets, we continue tosee an attractive 2H fundamental setup underpinned by marketplace-driven Premium grossmargin expansion (2026E GMs +25bps vs. cons), pricing (incl. via superfan adoption), and the VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS Could audiobook and podcast superfans have higher LTVs than music? Streaming economics are bifurcating along a power-law curve: casuals drove the margins of Digital Entertainment 1.0, but the1% superfan tip is where incremental margins increasingly sit in Digital Entertainment 2.0(Exhibit 2).This is the tierSpotify is now structurally oriented around monetizing,and the three superfan verticals discussed today (music remix,audiobooks, and the podcast superfan stack) function as an integrated portfolio with different economic profiles, differentdefensibility characteristics, and different time-to-monetization curves. Multi-vertical users carry materially higher LTV, lowerchurn, and higher willingness to pay than single-vertical users, and Spotify's growth algorithm is now structurally oriented The question becomes which verticals contribute most across which time horizons, and we see the answer is structurallydifferent in the short term (~2026/27) than in the long term (~2030+). The drivers that determine near-term P&L contribution(time-to-revenue, proof-of-concept, attach velocity, and GM mix-shift impact) are different from the drivers that determinelong-term structural value (margin profile, defensibility, TAM optionality, and strategic role). Audiobooks scores favorably on In the short run (by 2027), we rank Audiobooks first. It is the only vertical with disclosed unit economics. 1M+ payingsubscribers, $100M ARR run-rate by July 2026, LTV multiples higher than Premium-only. The tier expansion roadmap isalready shipping with ++ and +++ this summer and Family and Student plans later in the year. Podcasts rank second becauseMemberships requires creator-side adoption to scale before fan revenue ramps, which we see as a 2027 to 2028 build ratherthan a 2026 one. Personal Podcasts launches in the US in June. By end of 2027 there is meaningful run-rate, but the modelneeds to wait for the supply side to fill in. Music Remix ranks third because no launch date was disclosed yet and the use case By 2030 and beyond, we see the music superfan move to first place(Exhibit 4). The ranking is about what Music Remixdefends. Without a licensed AI remix framework, Spotify's ~€20B+ core music vertical is structurally exposed to Suno, Udio,and the next wave of generative music platforms over a 5 to 10 year horizon. Hence, the label deal with UMG positions Spotifyto be the licensed surface that holds the industry-wide AI music monetization framework. Even a 10 to 15% defense of thecore music base dwarfs anything the other two superfan verticals can contribute incrementally. Podcasts hold second place ondurable structural drivers: Memberships operate as a platform-fee model where we estimate Spotify takes a15 to 20% share ofcreator sub