能源展望燃料依赖国家：现在绿色或以后悲伤

Green now orgrieve later Executive summary Fuel-reliant nations: Green now or grieve later A worrying developmentSlower for longer amid stubborn bottlenecksDouble-edged sword for fuel importersConclusionAppendix A Net fuel import bill decompositionAppendix B Country samples Executive summary The global energy transition is slowing,demand for oil and gas isexpected topeak laterand fuel prices are likely to remain higher for longer.For fuel-importing economies, thismore pessimistic outlookismore than a climate concern:it is a growing economicvulnerability.The recent oil and gas price hikes because of the war in the Middle East may While our results confirm that fuel prices are the dominant driver of short-term swings innet fuel import bills, there arealso signsof structural improvement. So far, gains in energyefficiency have been the main force reducing dependence on imported fuels,especially inadvanced economies but also increasingly in emerging markets.Butunderthemorepessimisticoutlook, these efficiency gains are expected to weaken. At the same time, To build external resilience in an environment of higher fuel prices, fuel-importingeconomies will therefore need a broader strategyfocusing both onacceleratinginvestment in domestic renewable energy and pushing electrification beyond the power Fuel-reliantnations: Greennow or grievelater The latest World Energy Outlook 2025 from the InternationalEnergy Agency (IEA) marks a worrying turning point in theglobal energy debate. For the first time in years, thepessimistic Current Policies Scenario (CPS) is back on thetable,signallinga slowdown in the energy transition and later during the COP 30 in Belem late last year.Amultilateralagreement on contentious issueslikethe future of fossil fuels,the reduction of methane emissions,andthe challenge offinancing the energy transition in emerging and developing Against this backdrop it comes as little surprise that the IEA2025 Energy Outlook brings an old pessimistic scenario, theCPS, back to the forefront. It stands alongsidethemoreoptimistic(butstill insufficientto really fight climate change) These are clear signals that the world is not on track toachieve its climate goals. However, for economies that relyheavily on fuel imports, this is more than a climate challenge.It is a matter of energy security and economic resilience, and itshould serve as a wake-up call. As these countries can nolonger count on a downward trend in global oil and gas pricesto ease their fuel import bills, the need to accelerate At the current juncture, the NZE scenario, seems further awaythan ever since we started ourEnergy Outlookseries. At thesame time, we think the CPS scenario where only policies andregulations that are currently in place accompanied by a verycautious view on the speed of deployment of new energytechnologies is taken, is–still–too pessimistic. STEPS Thisreportexamines where fuel-importing countries currentlystand, the risks they face as the energy transition slows, andwhat is needed to reduce their economic exposure to futureprice shocks. We start by outlining the state of the energy Even this more optimistic STEPS view, which differs onlymarginally yet meaningfully from the CPS, gives nothing tocheer about. By 2100 in STEPSthe world will have reached anaverage temperature increase of 2.5 degrees Celsius, againstthe CPS coming out at 3 degrees. If one considers thesefigures against the current level of 1.47 degrees on average, A worrying development With heatwaves, extensive wildfires, severe droughts, strongwinds and heavy precipitations, climate change wascontinuing to impose itself as we documented the state of theenergy transition for our April 2025 Energy Outlook. That gavea rather dire picture. With the US withdrawing from the ParisAgreement the global focus was shifting towards geopolitics Almost a year on, this view is reinforced.The US haswithdrawn from the foundational climate treaty UNFCC,pledging a return to fossilfuels.The rest of the world, even Slowerfor longer amid Figure1 STEPS forecast has worsened The energy transition is unrolling through three channels:energy efficiency, electrification and the move away fromfossil fuels. Underlying the process are three driving factors:government intervention,public and privateinvestments andtechnological progress. These factors should generate aneconomically compelling case for clean energy, whereby fossil Scale-wise, in 2024 worldwide energy investments exceededUSD 3.2 trillion and are estimated to reach USD 3.3 trillion in2025. This will only rise marginally in STEPS, remaining stablein CPS, until 2035. There are various reasons for concern thatunderpin this picture. Energy efficiency as such is slowing,from on average 2% per year in 2010-2019 to 1.1% in 2024.While end-use efficiency is rising, notably for EVs, investmentsin technical efficiency improvements that help more efficienthousing stock orequipment is flatter. Insufficient efficiencystan