日本汽车及汽车零部件速览：电装/爱信2026财年（截至3月）——均考虑中东风险，但盈利印象分歧

Quick Take: Denso/Aisin FY3/26 - both factor in Middle East risks,but earnings impressions diverge On April 28th, during market hours, Denso and Aisin announced their FY3/26 results.Although both Denso and Aisin factor Middle East-related risks into their FY3/27 guidance,Denso’s outlook appears weak, while Aisin’s guidance seems relatively reasonable,supported by the announcement of an additional share buyback, leading to divergentearnings impressions. Masahiro Akita+81 3 6777 6998masahiro.akita@bernsteinsg.com Tomohiro Kashimoto+81 3 6777 6975tomohiro.kashimoto@bernsteinsg.com Denso - FY3/27 guidance falls short even excluding potential risks, Rohmacquisition proposal withdrawn:FY3/26 OP was JPY 553 bn (+6% YoY), slightly abovecompany guidance (535 bn) and consensus (543 bn), but in line with our estimate (554bn). While the company faced headwinds from tariff-related costs, rising componentprices, and increased investment in workforce, these were offset by cost reduction effortsand higher production volumes, resulting in YoY profit growth. For FY3/27, the companyguided OP at JPY 500 bn (-10% YoY), 22% below our forecast and consensus. While theguidance incorporates JPY 45 bn in potential but uncertain risks (including possible vehicleproduction impacts related to the Middle East situation, rare earth supply issues, andquality costs), earnings still fall below expectations even after adjusting for this, reflectingintensified investments to support long-term growth. In particular, the company intendsto deliberately accelerate investment this year toward its 2030 objectives, including in-house development of SoCs, the ramp-up of SiC, development of GaN, and AI initiatives.Management appears to expect this front-loaded investment phase to reverse by no laterthan FY3/29. Aside from earnings, Denso announced that it has temporarily withdrawnits proposal to acquire Rohm. That said, the company appears to intend to continueconsidering all available options, including ongoing collaboration with Rohm and a potentialincrease in its stake. Denso also considers cooperation or strategic alliances with othersemiconductor players, such as Toshiba and Mitsubishi Electric, which are reportedlyconsidering integration of their power semiconductor businesses with Rohm, as well asFuji Electric. Meanwhile, the company announced a share buyback of JPY 314 bn (6.4% ofoutstanding shares) related to the Toyota Industries privatization. Seunghyeok Kim+81 3 6777 6974seunghyeok.kim@bernsteinsg.com Aisin - additional share buyback announced as positive surprise:FY3/26 OP was JPY229 bn (+13% YoY), above company guidance (205 bn) and consensus (222 bn), while inline with our forecast (232 bn). OP increased YoY despite investments for human capitaland future growth, as well as the impact of tariffs, driven by efforts to improve the corporatestructure and the benefits of structural reforms. For FY3/27, the company guided OP atJPY 235 bn, representing a 9% and 13% shortfall vs. consensus (259 bn) and our estimate(269 bn), respectively. The company expects powertrain unit sales to grow 5% YoY to 10.7mn units, driven by strong growth in electrification units, which are projected to rise 39.3%YoY to 3.75 mn units. A JPY 15 bn downside assumption tied to the Middle East situation(including impacts on vehicle production and higher material prices) has been factoredin, which together with a conservative FX assumption largely explains the shortfall vs. ourforecast. In addition to the share buyback associated with the Toyota Industries privatization(JPY 46 bn), the company announced a further buyback of JPY 54 bn (5.8% of outstandingshares), which we view as a positive surprise. INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rateDenso Market-Performwith a price target ofJPY 2,050. We rateAisin Market-Performwith a price target ofJPY 2,750. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE I. REQUIRED DISCLOSURES References to "Bernstein" or the “Firm” in these disclosures relate to the following entities: Bernstein Institutional Services LLC(April 1, 2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., LLC (pre April 1, 2024), Bernstein Autonomous LLP, BSG France S.A. (April 1,2024 onwards), Sanford C. Bernstein (Hong Kong) Limited盛博香港有限公司,Sanford C. Bernstein (Canada) Limited, SanfordC. Bernstein (India) Private Limited (SEBI registration no. INH000006378), Sanford C. Bernstein (Singapore) Private Limited,Sanford C. Bernstein Japan KK(サンフォード・C・バーンスタイン株式会社)and analysts employed by Société GénéraleAfrica Technologies & Services to produce Bernstein research under a Global Services Agreement in place between Bernsteinand Société Générale. Bernstein is part of a joint venture between Société Générale (SG) and AllianceBernstein, L.P. (AB). Unless specifically notedotherwise, for purposes of these disclosures, references to Bernstein’s “affiliates” relate to both SG and AB and their respectiveaffiliates. VALUATION METHODOLOGY Denso Corporation We set price target of JPY 2,050 using PBR (P/B mul