奢侈品行业温度检测与价格目标变动

Temperature check Price Objective Change 22 April 2026 Luxury revenue +1% in 1QTD,60bps improvement on 4Q On a weighted average basis, sector revenues are +1%in 1Q26 so far, which is a 60bpsacceleration from 4Q25 for the same companies (Exhibit 2). Both 2-yr and 3-yr CAGRsfor the industry slowed. However, we saw some stabilisation in the post-Covid trend(+50bps for 7-yr CAGR). As we wrote inA slow trot(see report), we believe the recoveryin demand will continue to be progressive as an improvement in local US and Chinademand is somewhat offset by Middle East and weak tourism. This is what we areseeing already pan out in 1Q26, with the start of 2Q similar, seeExhibit 7. We model 2Q EquityEurope AshleyWallace>>Research AnalystMerrill Lynch (Australia)+61 2 9226 5070 ashley.d.wallace@bofa.comDaria Nasledysheva>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 1087daria.nasledysheva@bofa.com Americas the strongest, followed by AsiaAmericasis the strongest region at +6% YoY in 1Q, which is a 3ppt acceleration from 4Q, however using F&L instead of LVMH group would be 6ppt acceleration. BACaggregated credit and debit card data for luxury fashion accelerated 9ppt in 1Q (+10%) Ioanna Ziarti>>Research AnalystMLI (UK)+44 20 7996 8116ioanna.ziarti@bofa.com Importantly, volume growth turned positive at +5% in 1Q26 (had been negative in 2022-25). Asia ex-Japan also improved with 1QTD +5.5%, up 4ppt vs 4Q, mainly supported bythe Chinese and Korean clusters. Europe (-2%) and Japan (-1%) continue to be impactedby negative tourism spend. Thierry Cota>>Research AnalystBofASE (France) Joffrey Bellicha Meller>>Research AnalystMLI (UK) Middle Easta 1.3ppt impact on sector revenuesThe Middle East represents 6% of sector revenues, highest for Richemont (9%) and lowest for Ferragamo/Moncler (2%). At LVMH the Middle Easter cluster was a 1pptimpact in 1Q. At Hermes, the region grew +DD in Jan-Feb, but was -30% in March,resulting in a 1.5ppt headwind in 1Q. Kering saw a 3ppt impact in March, so c.1pptimpact for the quarter. We estimate the headwind to be 1.3% on luxury sector organic Jewellery shiningbrightly From a category perspective, outperformance of jewellery was theclearest x-read fromthe companies to report so far. High jewellery and iconic collections at Tiffany & Bulgarioffset watch weakness at LVMH (seeStep by step) with +7% growth for the division;the category grew c.20% underlying at Kering (seeWaiting for Gucci) and close todouble digit at Hermes (seeNon-linear). BAC card data shows US jewellery spendaccelerated 4ppt from 4Q to 1Q, with April so far still double-digit +10% (Exhibit 34). Where to from here? Based on earnings updates andlatest data, we revise quarterly estimates for Prada(group retail now +2% cFX vs. BofAe), Richemont (4Q Specialty Watch revenue revisedto +2% from +6%, implying a 0.4–1.7% EPS downgrade), and WOSG. We lower Prada’sPO to HKD45 from HKD49 on reduced estimates. We reiterate Buy ratings on Richemont >> Employed by a non-US affiliate of BofAS and is not registered/qualified as a research analystunder the FINRA rules.Refer to "Other Important Disclosures" for information on certain BofA Securities entities that take responsibility for the information herein in particular jurisdictions.BofA Securities does and seeks to do business with issuers covered in its researchreports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of Contents Luxury revenues +1% in 1Q26TD3€81m more 1Q revenues vs last year…where did they go?3CAGR vs 2019 accelerates, but is below pre-Covid42yr & 3yr CAGRs slow4Current trends flattish with 1Q5 Regional trends6 Americas +3ppt to +6%6Asia up 4ppt to +5.5%7Europe slowed 1ppt to -2%8Japan -1% in 1QTD9Middle East a 1.3ppt headwind on 1Q organic revenues9 Changes to forecasts Prada11Richemont13Watches of Switzerland13 Luxury sector +1% in 1Q so far Five luxury companies have reported 1Q26 revenues. On a weighted averagebasis, revenues have grown +1.1%, which is a 60bps improvement from 4Q25on the same sample of companies. On an underlying basis the pre Covid 10year CAGR was +11.5% cFX for the five companies. Conversely, the CAGR vs Luxury revenues +1% in 1Q26TD Weighted average revenue growth for the five luxury companies to report shows sectorrevenue stands at +1.1% YoY on a constant currency basis in 1Q26 so far. Thisrepresents a 60bps acceleration from 4Q25 for the same companies. We note that weuse LVMH F&L rather than Group, as that is a more relevant comp vs peers. Additionally,we use retail revenues for Brunello Cucinelli (whose +20% organic growth is so far the Exhibit1: Luxury sector revenues +1% in 1Q26, up 60bps from4Q25 Luxury companies yoy revenue growth by quarter, Dec YE Luxury companies yoy revenue growth by quarter, Dec YE BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH €81m more 1Q revenues vs last year… where did they go? On a constant currency basis, the five luxury companies to report so far have added€81m of revenue on aggregate. We note