泡泡玛特：中国年初至今销售追踪：线上线下渠道增速放缓

Pop Mart: China YTD Sales Tracker: Deceleration across onlineand offline channels In addition to our Pop Mart high-frequency tracker report, here we show Pop Mart’sChina sales tracking, inclusive of offline store indicator (Meritco data) and online platformdata (Moojing). March results confirm broadening deceleration across both channels. Melinda Hu+852 2123 2643melinda.hu@bernsteinsg.com Pop Mart's China offline SSSG performance is deteriorating.Revenue per comp storefell to RMB 0.87mn in March (–16% MoM; +31% YoY), down from RMB 1.04mn in Februaryand well below the RMB 1.0mn+ level that had held since June 2025. Productivity persquare meter dropped to RMB 6,300 (–22% MoM; +28% YoY), the lowest since June lastyear and below even November's RMB 6,600 trough. The January–February stabilisationaround RMB 7,000–8,000 now looks like a temporary reprieve. March's fall despite newproduct launches and promotional activity suggests existing collectors are spending lessper visit or visiting less frequently. For 2026, this shifts the growth model from proven IPlifecycle monetisation to riskier and untested customer acquisition. Kai Zhang+852 2123 2665kai.zhang@bernsteinsg.com China online showed modest recovery but remains at the lower bound of its historical range.March GMV grew +105% YoY (4% MoM) across combined channels(flagship stores +101% YoY, 18% MoM), a sequential improvement from February butstill at the low end of the range over the past year. The decline in offline productivity andmodest online growth suggests overall weak customer interest. If March's weakness wastemporary, online GMV should recover in the coming months; if it continues, it confirms theceiling that offline data indicates. 1Q26 combined (offline + online) tracked growth implies +75% YoY,a meaningfulstep-down from +103% in 2H25. China online third-party GMV grew +88% YoY in Q1 (4%MoM), decelerating from +119% in 2H25. China offline 1Q tracked retail sales grew +40%YoY, down from +57% in 2H25 (+85% YoY in Q4). We estimate Q1 China online revenue atRMB 1.7bn (+82% YoY) and offline at RMB 2.6bn (+45% YoY). The deceleration is clear andconsistent across both channels. The 2026 outlook faces compounding headwinds across all three growth pillars. Online growth of +28% is achievable only if new IP launches generate meaningfulincremental demand — LABUBU comps turn increasingly difficult with no confirmedblockbuster replacement. Offline growth of +17% requires either continued aggressivestore expansion or same-store productivity recovery, and current trends supports neither —March's RMB 6,300/sqm suggests the existing collector base cannot sustain productivitylevels without hit-driven catalysts. Overseas must over-deliver if domestic weakens further,yet our global tracker already shows international foot traffic declining and online growthstalling at single digits. The convergence of deceleration across China online, China offline,and overseas leaves Pop Mart without a clear offset if any single pillar underperforms. Based on the 3P data which covers ~70% of China revenue, offline and onlinecombined 1Q26 actual growth imply an estimated +75% YoY. We estimate Q1 Chinagrows at +56%, with online revenue at RMB 1.7bn (+82% YoY) and offline at RMB 2.6bn(+45% YoY). The deceleration is clear and consistent across both channels. BERNSTEIN TICKER TABLE INVESTMENT IMPLICATIONS We rate Pop Mart Underperform. VALUATION COMPS TABLE DETAILS POP MART CHINA REVENUE MIX Retail stores account for over 48% of Pop Mart's China revenue, with an additional 11% from other offline channels (roboshops,wholesale, and others) in FY25, meaning total offline generates ~59% of domestic sales. Within online channels, the proprietaryPop Drow app leads China digital sales with 40%, and 60% are generated from 3rdparty plaforms including Tmall flagship storeand Douyin platform in FY25. EXHIBIT 3:Pop Mart China generates over ~55% ofdomestic sales from offline channels in 2025 EXHIBIT 4:Within online channels, 60% are generatedfrom 3rd party plaforms, including Tmall flagship storeand Douyin platform in 2025. FY25 China revenue by channels CHINA OFFLINE SALES (COMP STORES) Pop Mart's China offline revenue showed a sharp decline after consecutive growth in the past 2 months. Smae store salespeaked at RMB 1.1mn in June, stabilized around RMB 1.0mn through October, then dropped to RMB 0.9mn in November. Whilethe number grew back to around RMB 1.0mn in January and February, it dropped back to RMB 0.87mn in March. Productivityper square meter (sales/sqm) similarly declined from RMB ~8,000 (Jan-Feb) to RMB 6,300. Such weakness, whether transitoryor structural, suggests organic demand might be plateaued without new catalysts, shifting 2026 growth dependency fromLABUBU tailwinds to uncertain and untested product pipeline. REVENUE PER STORE: SEQUENTIAL DECELERATION March marks a sudden drop: •Comp stores averaged RMB 0.87mn (+31% YoY), down from February's RMB 1.04mn (